Anthropic’s confidential SEC filing in early June 2026, followed by active banker-led investor meetings targeting an October debut, has driven the 84% market-implied probability that it will reach public markets ahead of OpenAI. Recent reporting indicates OpenAI, which had eyed a late-2026 window, is now leaning toward a 2027 listing amid internal deliberations and shifting timelines. These concrete steps—Anthropic’s S-1 submission and scheduled roadshow activity versus OpenAI’s revised posture—have shifted trader consensus toward Anthropic as the first-mover. Key catalysts to watch include any acceleration or delay in Anthropic’s fall window and confirmation of OpenAI’s revised schedule.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoAnthropic
84% chance
$260,589 Vol.
$260,589 Vol.
31 dez 2027
Anthropic
84% chance
$260,589 Vol.
$260,589 Vol.
31 dez 2027
This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.Anthropic’s confidential SEC filing in early June 2026, followed by active banker-led investor meetings targeting an October debut, has driven the 84% market-implied probability that it will reach public markets ahead of OpenAI. Recent reporting indicates OpenAI, which had eyed a late-2026 window, is now leaning toward a 2027 listing amid internal deliberations and shifting timelines. These concrete steps—Anthropic’s S-1 submission and scheduled roadshow activity versus OpenAI’s revised posture—have shifted trader consensus toward Anthropic as the first-mover. Key catalysts to watch include any acceleration or delay in Anthropic’s fall window and confirmation of OpenAI’s revised schedule.
This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado Aberto: Jan 30, 2026, 5:43 PM ET
Volume
$260,589Data de Término
31 dez 2027Mercado Aberto
Jan 30, 2026, 5:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.Anthropic’s confidential SEC filing in early June 2026, followed by active banker-led investor meetings targeting an October debut, has driven the 84% market-implied probability that it will reach public markets ahead of OpenAI. Recent reporting indicates OpenAI, which had eyed a late-2026 window, is now leaning toward a 2027 listing amid internal deliberations and shifting timelines. These concrete steps—Anthropic’s S-1 submission and scheduled roadshow activity versus OpenAI’s revised posture—have shifted trader consensus toward Anthropic as the first-mover. Key catalysts to watch include any acceleration or delay in Anthropic’s fall window and confirmation of OpenAI’s revised schedule.
This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$260,589Data de Término
31 dez 2027Mercado Aberto
Jan 30, 2026, 5:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Anthropic’s confidential SEC filing in early June 2026, followed by active banker-led investor meetings targeting an October debut, has driven the 84% market-implied probability that it will reach public markets ahead of OpenAI. Recent reporting indicates OpenAI, which had eyed a late-2026 window, is now leaning toward a 2027 listing amid internal deliberations and shifting timelines. These concrete steps—Anthropic’s S-1 submission and scheduled roadshow activity versus OpenAI’s revised posture—have shifted trader consensus toward Anthropic as the first-mover. Key catalysts to watch include any acceleration or delay in Anthropic’s fall window and confirmation of OpenAI’s revised schedule.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoRelacionado
O valor de mercado da Anthropic será de US$600 bilhões ou mais no fechamento do mercado no dia do IPO até 31 de dezembro de 2027?
90%
Sim
Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?
41%
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.5T and $1.75T at market close on IPO day?
17%
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions