Recent polling for the 28 November 2026 Victorian state election shows the Liberal–National Coalition leading Labor on two-party preferred margins of 51–49 to 57–43 in surveys from Resolve, DemosAU, Redbridge, and others, reflecting 12 years of Labor government fatigue after Jacinta Allan’s resignation and replacement by Ben Carroll in late July. The Coalition’s primary vote has stabilized in the mid-to-high 20s while One Nation remains competitive on primaries but fragments the right-leaning vote without shifting the projected seat outcome in the 88-member Legislative Assembly. Traders price the Liberal–National outcome highest, consistent with historical patterns favoring the opposition after extended incumbency and current 2PP consensus. Upcoming campaign events through November could still influence final preference flows and turnout.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoLiberal–National 78%
Labor 20%
One Nation 2.1%
Greens <1%
$10,625 Vol.
$10,625 Vol.
28 nov 2026
Liberal–National
78%
Labor
20%
One Nation
2%
Greens
1%
Liberal–National 78%
Labor 20%
One Nation 2.1%
Greens <1%
$10,625 Vol.
$10,625 Vol.
28 nov 2026
Liberal–National
$6,390 Vol.
78%
Labor
$1,749 Vol.
20%
One Nation
$2,275 Vol.
2%
Greens
$212 Vol.
1%
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).Recent polling for the 28 November 2026 Victorian state election shows the Liberal–National Coalition leading Labor on two-party preferred margins of 51–49 to 57–43 in surveys from Resolve, DemosAU, Redbridge, and others, reflecting 12 years of Labor government fatigue after Jacinta Allan’s resignation and replacement by Ben Carroll in late July. The Coalition’s primary vote has stabilized in the mid-to-high 20s while One Nation remains competitive on primaries but fragments the right-leaning vote without shifting the projected seat outcome in the 88-member Legislative Assembly. Traders price the Liberal–National outcome highest, consistent with historical patterns favoring the opposition after extended incumbency and current 2PP consensus. Upcoming campaign events through November could still influence final preference flows and turnout.
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
Mercado Aberto: Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 AM ET
Volume
$10,625Data de Término
28 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).Recent polling for the 28 November 2026 Victorian state election shows the Liberal–National Coalition leading Labor on two-party preferred margins of 51–49 to 57–43 in surveys from Resolve, DemosAU, Redbridge, and others, reflecting 12 years of Labor government fatigue after Jacinta Allan’s resignation and replacement by Ben Carroll in late July. The Coalition’s primary vote has stabilized in the mid-to-high 20s while One Nation remains competitive on primaries but fragments the right-leaning vote without shifting the projected seat outcome in the 88-member Legislative Assembly. Traders price the Liberal–National outcome highest, consistent with historical patterns favoring the opposition after extended incumbency and current 2PP consensus. Upcoming campaign events through November could still influence final preference flows and turnout.
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
Volume
$10,625Data de Término
28 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling for the 28 November 2026 Victorian state election shows the Liberal–National Coalition leading Labor on two-party preferred margins of 51–49 to 57–43 in surveys from Resolve, DemosAU, Redbridge, and others, reflecting 12 years of Labor government fatigue after Jacinta Allan’s resignation and replacement by Ben Carroll in late July. The Coalition’s primary vote has stabilized in the mid-to-high 20s while One Nation remains competitive on primaries but fragments the right-leaning vote without shifting the projected seat outcome in the 88-member Legislative Assembly. Traders price the Liberal–National outcome highest, consistent with historical patterns favoring the opposition after extended incumbency and current 2PP consensus. Upcoming campaign events through November could still influence final preference flows and turnout.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions