Democratic prospects for regaining House control in the 2026 midterms drive Hakeem Jeffries to a leading 75.5% implied probability for Speaker, consistent with prediction markets assigning Democrats roughly an 85% chance of a majority. Generic ballot polling and historical midterm patterns against the president's party have sustained this edge, despite Republican redistricting gains in states such as Texas and recent court rulings altering certain districts. Mike Johnson remains the Republican frontrunner at 11.4% as the current Speaker, with other GOP figures like Jim Jordan and Steve Scalise trailing due to narrower paths to a retained majority. On the Democratic side, Katherine Clark and Pete Aguilar register modest shares reflecting their caucus roles if Jeffries advances. The next Congress convenes in January 2027, with leadership votes following certification of results.