Traders assign just 7-8% implied probability to Phoebe Gates facing arrest by year-end, reflecting the absence of criminal charges despite Bloomberg's July and August 2026 reporting on cookie-stuffing practices at her AI shopping app Phia. Internal Slack messages indicated co-founders knew of the affiliate-tracking feature since late 2025, yet the company has cooperated with inquiries and no indictments have followed. Such cases typically move through civil settlements, compliance adjustments, or fines rather than rapid federal wire-fraud prosecutions, given extended DOJ timelines and the high-profile family's legal resources. While an accelerated probe or new evidence could trigger detention before December 31, current sentiment rests on these practical barriers and historical precedent for measured regulatory responses in tech-affiliate disputes.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoPhoebe Gates presa até 31 de dezembro?
Phoebe Gates presa até 31 de dezembro?
Sim
8% chance
NOVO
NOVO
31 dez 2026
Sim
8% chance
NOVO
NOVO
31 dez 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Phoebe Gates is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Traders assign just 7-8% implied probability to Phoebe Gates facing arrest by year-end, reflecting the absence of criminal charges despite Bloomberg's July and August 2026 reporting on cookie-stuffing practices at her AI shopping app Phia. Internal Slack messages indicated co-founders knew of the affiliate-tracking feature since late 2025, yet the company has cooperated with inquiries and no indictments have followed. Such cases typically move through civil settlements, compliance adjustments, or fines rather than rapid federal wire-fraud prosecutions, given extended DOJ timelines and the high-profile family's legal resources. While an accelerated probe or new evidence could trigger detention before December 31, current sentiment rests on these practical barriers and historical precedent for measured regulatory responses in tech-affiliate disputes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Phoebe Gates is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Aug 14, 2026, 4:10 PM ET
Volume
$2,077Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 14, 2026, 4:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Phoebe Gates is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Traders assign just 7-8% implied probability to Phoebe Gates facing arrest by year-end, reflecting the absence of criminal charges despite Bloomberg's July and August 2026 reporting on cookie-stuffing practices at her AI shopping app Phia. Internal Slack messages indicated co-founders knew of the affiliate-tracking feature since late 2025, yet the company has cooperated with inquiries and no indictments have followed. Such cases typically move through civil settlements, compliance adjustments, or fines rather than rapid federal wire-fraud prosecutions, given extended DOJ timelines and the high-profile family's legal resources. While an accelerated probe or new evidence could trigger detention before December 31, current sentiment rests on these practical barriers and historical precedent for measured regulatory responses in tech-affiliate disputes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Phoebe Gates is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$2,077Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 14, 2026, 4:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign just 7-8% implied probability to Phoebe Gates facing arrest by year-end, reflecting the absence of criminal charges despite Bloomberg's July and August 2026 reporting on cookie-stuffing practices at her AI shopping app Phia. Internal Slack messages indicated co-founders knew of the affiliate-tracking feature since late 2025, yet the company has cooperated with inquiries and no indictments have followed. Such cases typically move through civil settlements, compliance adjustments, or fines rather than rapid federal wire-fraud prosecutions, given extended DOJ timelines and the high-profile family's legal resources. While an accelerated probe or new evidence could trigger detention before December 31, current sentiment rests on these practical barriers and historical precedent for measured regulatory responses in tech-affiliate disputes.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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