Recent NOAA and Copernicus analyses show global surface temperature anomalies for early 2026 months clustering between 1.12°C and 1.31°C above the 1850–1900 baseline, aligning closely with the 1.10–1.14°C bin. A developing El Niño in the equatorial Pacific, with models assigning high probability of emergence by mid-2026, provides modest additional warming consistent with this narrow range rather than extremes. Historical patterns indicate El Niño typically elevates May anomalies by 0.1–0.2°C above neutral conditions, supporting trader positioning. Final May observational releases or unexpected shifts in sea surface temperatures could alter outcomes, though current data and model consensus limit such divergence.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoMay 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
May 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
1.10–1.14ºC 97.0%
<1.10ºC 1.5%
1.15–1.19ºC <1%
1.20–1.24ºC <1%
$191,518 Vol.
$191,518 Vol.
10 jun 2026
<1.10ºC
2%
1.10–1.14ºC
97%
1.15–1.19ºC
1%
1.20–1.24ºC
<1%
1.25–1.29ºC
<1%
>1.29ºC
<1%
1.10–1.14ºC 97.0%
<1.10ºC 1.5%
1.15–1.19ºC <1%
1.20–1.24ºC <1%
$191,518 Vol.
$191,518 Vol.
10 jun 2026
<1.10ºC
$60,938 Vol.
2%
1.10–1.14ºC
$24,161 Vol.
97%
1.15–1.19ºC
$36,899 Vol.
1%
1.20–1.24ºC
$22,961 Vol.
<1%
1.25–1.29ºC
$20,284 Vol.
<1%
>1.29ºC
$26,277 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Recent NOAA and Copernicus analyses show global surface temperature anomalies for early 2026 months clustering between 1.12°C and 1.31°C above the 1850–1900 baseline, aligning closely with the 1.10–1.14°C bin. A developing El Niño in the equatorial Pacific, with models assigning high probability of emergence by mid-2026, provides modest additional warming consistent with this narrow range rather than extremes. Historical patterns indicate El Niño typically elevates May anomalies by 0.1–0.2°C above neutral conditions, supporting trader positioning. Final May observational releases or unexpected shifts in sea surface temperatures could alter outcomes, though current data and model consensus limit such divergence.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Mercado Aberto: Apr 27, 2026, 4:35 PM ET
Volume
$191,518Data de Término
10 jun 2026Mercado Aberto
Apr 27, 2026, 4:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Recent NOAA and Copernicus analyses show global surface temperature anomalies for early 2026 months clustering between 1.12°C and 1.31°C above the 1850–1900 baseline, aligning closely with the 1.10–1.14°C bin. A developing El Niño in the equatorial Pacific, with models assigning high probability of emergence by mid-2026, provides modest additional warming consistent with this narrow range rather than extremes. Historical patterns indicate El Niño typically elevates May anomalies by 0.1–0.2°C above neutral conditions, supporting trader positioning. Final May observational releases or unexpected shifts in sea surface temperatures could alter outcomes, though current data and model consensus limit such divergence.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volume
$191,518Data de Término
10 jun 2026Mercado Aberto
Apr 27, 2026, 4:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent NOAA and Copernicus analyses show global surface temperature anomalies for early 2026 months clustering between 1.12°C and 1.31°C above the 1850–1900 baseline, aligning closely with the 1.10–1.14°C bin. A developing El Niño in the equatorial Pacific, with models assigning high probability of emergence by mid-2026, provides modest additional warming consistent with this narrow range rather than extremes. Historical patterns indicate El Niño typically elevates May anomalies by 0.1–0.2°C above neutral conditions, supporting trader positioning. Final May observational releases or unexpected shifts in sea surface temperatures could alter outcomes, though current data and model consensus limit such divergence.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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Cuidado com os links externos.
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