A developing tropical cyclone (Noul) east of the Philippines, forecast by the Hong Kong Observatory to intensify and track toward the Guangdong coast, is the dominant driver behind trader sentiment for Hong Kong’s July 27 minimum temperature. Model consensus points to the system weakening into a tropical depression by July 27, delivering widespread cloud cover, heavy rain, and gusty winds that suppress daytime heating while limiting nocturnal cooling. This setup favors overnight lows near 25–26°C, aligning with the closely matched leading market outcomes, though slight variations in the storm’s exact track or intensity could shift the minimum by 1–2°C. Historical July climatology shows typical minimums around 26–28°C, but the active monsoon trough and cyclone activity introduce greater uncertainty in short-range forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory and global models. Updated NHC and HKO guidance expected over the next 48 hours will likely refine probabilities as the system nears.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoTemperatura mais baixa em Hong Kong em 27 de julho?
Temperatura mais baixa em Hong Kong em 27 de julho?
26°C 34%
27°C 23%
25°C 20%
28°C 13%
NOVO
NOVO
27 jul 2026
23°C ou menos
1%
24°C
5%
25°C
20%
26°C
34%
27°C
23%
28°C
13%
29°C
2%
30°C
1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
<1%
33°C ou mais
<1%
26°C 34%
27°C 23%
25°C 20%
28°C 13%
NOVO
NOVO
27 jul 2026
23°C ou menos
$37 Vol.
1%
24°C
$61 Vol.
5%
25°C
$539 Vol.
20%
26°C
$561 Vol.
34%
27°C
$417 Vol.
23%
28°C
$119 Vol.
13%
29°C
$42 Vol.
2%
30°C
$128 Vol.
1%
31°C
$87 Vol.
<1%
32°C
$42 Vol.
<1%
33°C ou mais
$87 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 27 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.A developing tropical cyclone (Noul) east of the Philippines, forecast by the Hong Kong Observatory to intensify and track toward the Guangdong coast, is the dominant driver behind trader sentiment for Hong Kong’s July 27 minimum temperature. Model consensus points to the system weakening into a tropical depression by July 27, delivering widespread cloud cover, heavy rain, and gusty winds that suppress daytime heating while limiting nocturnal cooling. This setup favors overnight lows near 25–26°C, aligning with the closely matched leading market outcomes, though slight variations in the storm’s exact track or intensity could shift the minimum by 1–2°C. Historical July climatology shows typical minimums around 26–28°C, but the active monsoon trough and cyclone activity introduce greater uncertainty in short-range forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory and global models. Updated NHC and HKO guidance expected over the next 48 hours will likely refine probabilities as the system nears.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 27 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Jul 25, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$2,119Data de Término
27 jul 2026Mercado Aberto
Jul 25, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 27 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.A developing tropical cyclone (Noul) east of the Philippines, forecast by the Hong Kong Observatory to intensify and track toward the Guangdong coast, is the dominant driver behind trader sentiment for Hong Kong’s July 27 minimum temperature. Model consensus points to the system weakening into a tropical depression by July 27, delivering widespread cloud cover, heavy rain, and gusty winds that suppress daytime heating while limiting nocturnal cooling. This setup favors overnight lows near 25–26°C, aligning with the closely matched leading market outcomes, though slight variations in the storm’s exact track or intensity could shift the minimum by 1–2°C. Historical July climatology shows typical minimums around 26–28°C, but the active monsoon trough and cyclone activity introduce greater uncertainty in short-range forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory and global models. Updated NHC and HKO guidance expected over the next 48 hours will likely refine probabilities as the system nears.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 27 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$2,119Data de Término
27 jul 2026Mercado Aberto
Jul 25, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A developing tropical cyclone (Noul) east of the Philippines, forecast by the Hong Kong Observatory to intensify and track toward the Guangdong coast, is the dominant driver behind trader sentiment for Hong Kong’s July 27 minimum temperature. Model consensus points to the system weakening into a tropical depression by July 27, delivering widespread cloud cover, heavy rain, and gusty winds that suppress daytime heating while limiting nocturnal cooling. This setup favors overnight lows near 25–26°C, aligning with the closely matched leading market outcomes, though slight variations in the storm’s exact track or intensity could shift the minimum by 1–2°C. Historical July climatology shows typical minimums around 26–28°C, but the active monsoon trough and cyclone activity introduce greater uncertainty in short-range forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory and global models. Updated NHC and HKO guidance expected over the next 48 hours will likely refine probabilities as the system nears.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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