Iran's post-war political landscape features intense factional tensions following the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes, the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, and the March election of Mojtaba Khamenei. Hardliners have publicly accused figures including President Masoud Pezeshkian and Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf of a coup through sidelining parliament, managing U.S. truce talks without full access to the new leader, and shifting decision-making power. Earlier January attempts to remove Khamenei and debates over IRGC influence versus clerical authority have heightened scrutiny of internal power transitions. These dynamics, alongside ongoing negotiations and regime survival amid external pressure, shape trader assessments of coup-related outcomes.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado$2,111,982 Vol.
31 dez 2026
31 de dezembro
11%
$2,111,982 Vol.
31 de dezembro
$70,756 Vol.
11%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran's post-war political landscape features intense factional tensions following the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes, the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, and the March election of Mojtaba Khamenei. Hardliners have publicly accused figures including President Masoud Pezeshkian and Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf of a coup through sidelining parliament, managing U.S. truce talks without full access to the new leader, and shifting decision-making power. Earlier January attempts to remove Khamenei and debates over IRGC influence versus clerical authority have heightened scrutiny of internal power transitions. These dynamics, alongside ongoing negotiations and regime survival amid external pressure, shape trader assessments of coup-related outcomes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado Aberto: Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ET
Volume
$2,111,982Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran's post-war political landscape features intense factional tensions following the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes, the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, and the March election of Mojtaba Khamenei. Hardliners have publicly accused figures including President Masoud Pezeshkian and Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf of a coup through sidelining parliament, managing U.S. truce talks without full access to the new leader, and shifting decision-making power. Earlier January attempts to remove Khamenei and debates over IRGC influence versus clerical authority have heightened scrutiny of internal power transitions. These dynamics, alongside ongoing negotiations and regime survival amid external pressure, shape trader assessments of coup-related outcomes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$2,111,982Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran's post-war political landscape features intense factional tensions following the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes, the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, and the March election of Mojtaba Khamenei. Hardliners have publicly accused figures including President Masoud Pezeshkian and Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf of a coup through sidelining parliament, managing U.S. truce talks without full access to the new leader, and shifting decision-making power. Earlier January attempts to remove Khamenei and debates over IRGC influence versus clerical authority have heightened scrutiny of internal power transitions. These dynamics, alongside ongoing negotiations and regime survival amid external pressure, shape trader assessments of coup-related outcomes.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions