Strong El Niño conditions, with Niño 3.4 anomalies already exceeding +2°C and forecasts for a very strong event persisting through fall, represent the dominant driver elevating trader-implied odds near 8 or greater landfalls in China. This pattern typically boosts Western North Pacific tropical cyclone formation while steering tracks northeastward toward eastern China, increasing landfall probability compared with neutral or La Niña years. Recent activity supports this, with at least three confirmed landfalls (Maysak, Bavi, Noul) in July alone amid an above-normal seasonal pace. Remaining uncertainty stems from variable intensification rates, exact steering patterns, and how many late-season systems reach China's coastline before dissipation, keeping probabilities for 5–7 outcomes competitive but lower.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoQuantos ciclones tropicais atingirão a China durante 2026?
Quantos ciclones tropicais atingirão a China durante 2026?
8 42%
Maior que 8 41%
6 40%
5 36%
NOVO
NOVO
30 jun 2027
Menos de 5
24%
5
36%
6
40%
7
35%
8
42%
Maior que 8
41%
8 42%
Maior que 8 41%
6 40%
5 36%
NOVO
NOVO
30 jun 2027
Menos de 5
$92 Vol.
24%
5
$0 Vol.
36%
6
$0 Vol.
40%
7
$0 Vol.
35%
8
$0 Vol.
42%
Maior que 8
$0 Vol.
41%
This market will resolve based on the total number of tropical cyclones recorded making landfall in China during the calendar year 2026 as published on the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Tropical Cyclone Data Center "Landfalling TCs" page (https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.html) in the annual Best Track Dataset update for 2026.
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).Strong El Niño conditions, with Niño 3.4 anomalies already exceeding +2°C and forecasts for a very strong event persisting through fall, represent the dominant driver elevating trader-implied odds near 8 or greater landfalls in China. This pattern typically boosts Western North Pacific tropical cyclone formation while steering tracks northeastward toward eastern China, increasing landfall probability compared with neutral or La Niña years. Recent activity supports this, with at least three confirmed landfalls (Maysak, Bavi, Noul) in July alone amid an above-normal seasonal pace. Remaining uncertainty stems from variable intensification rates, exact steering patterns, and how many late-season systems reach China's coastline before dissipation, keeping probabilities for 5–7 outcomes competitive but lower.
This market will resolve based on the total number of tropical cyclones recorded making landfall in China during the calendar year 2026 as published on the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Tropical Cyclone Data Center "Landfalling TCs" page (https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.html) in the annual Best Track Dataset update for 2026.
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).
Mercado Aberto: Aug 5, 2026, 2:44 PM ET
Volume
$92Data de Término
30 jun 2027Mercado Aberto
Aug 5, 2026, 2:44 PM ETFonte de resolução
https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.htmlResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the total number of tropical cyclones recorded making landfall in China during the calendar year 2026 as published on the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Tropical Cyclone Data Center "Landfalling TCs" page (https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.html) in the annual Best Track Dataset update for 2026.
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).Strong El Niño conditions, with Niño 3.4 anomalies already exceeding +2°C and forecasts for a very strong event persisting through fall, represent the dominant driver elevating trader-implied odds near 8 or greater landfalls in China. This pattern typically boosts Western North Pacific tropical cyclone formation while steering tracks northeastward toward eastern China, increasing landfall probability compared with neutral or La Niña years. Recent activity supports this, with at least three confirmed landfalls (Maysak, Bavi, Noul) in July alone amid an above-normal seasonal pace. Remaining uncertainty stems from variable intensification rates, exact steering patterns, and how many late-season systems reach China's coastline before dissipation, keeping probabilities for 5–7 outcomes competitive but lower.
This market will resolve based on the total number of tropical cyclones recorded making landfall in China during the calendar year 2026 as published on the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Tropical Cyclone Data Center "Landfalling TCs" page (https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.html) in the annual Best Track Dataset update for 2026.
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).
Volume
$92Data de Término
30 jun 2027Mercado Aberto
Aug 5, 2026, 2:44 PM ETFonte de resolução
https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.htmlResolver
0x69c47De9D...Strong El Niño conditions, with Niño 3.4 anomalies already exceeding +2°C and forecasts for a very strong event persisting through fall, represent the dominant driver elevating trader-implied odds near 8 or greater landfalls in China. This pattern typically boosts Western North Pacific tropical cyclone formation while steering tracks northeastward toward eastern China, increasing landfall probability compared with neutral or La Niña years. Recent activity supports this, with at least three confirmed landfalls (Maysak, Bavi, Noul) in July alone amid an above-normal seasonal pace. Remaining uncertainty stems from variable intensification rates, exact steering patterns, and how many late-season systems reach China's coastline before dissipation, keeping probabilities for 5–7 outcomes competitive but lower.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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