Persistent Houthi attacks and threats in the Red Sea continue to suppress transits through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, driving the strong 68% market-implied probability for fewer than 200 ships in the week of July 27. Recent Kpler data showed only 39 commodity vessels on July 28—the highest daily total since July 19—and just five the following day, confirming the sustained rerouting of container, tanker, and dry-bulk traffic around the Cape of Good Hope. Elevated war-risk premiums, higher fuel costs, and longer voyage times reinforce this shift, with traders viewing the low baseline volumes as structural rather than temporary. No immediate de-escalation signals have emerged to alter the prevailing sentiment ahead of resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoQuantos navios transitam na semana do Estreito de Bab el-Mandeb de 27 de julho?
Quantos navios transitam na semana do Estreito de Bab el-Mandeb de 27 de julho?
<200 68%
200-219 24%
240+ 5.0%
220-239 4.4%
NOVO
NOVO
2 ago 2026
<200
68%
200-219
24%
220-239
4%
240+
7%
<200 68%
200-219 24%
240+ 5.0%
220-239 4.4%
NOVO
NOVO
2 ago 2026
<200
$3,994 Vol.
68%
200-219
$830 Vol.
24%
220-239
$127 Vol.
4%
240+
$159 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from July 27, 2026, through August 2, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Persistent Houthi attacks and threats in the Red Sea continue to suppress transits through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, driving the strong 68% market-implied probability for fewer than 200 ships in the week of July 27. Recent Kpler data showed only 39 commodity vessels on July 28—the highest daily total since July 19—and just five the following day, confirming the sustained rerouting of container, tanker, and dry-bulk traffic around the Cape of Good Hope. Elevated war-risk premiums, higher fuel costs, and longer voyage times reinforce this shift, with traders viewing the low baseline volumes as structural rather than temporary. No immediate de-escalation signals have emerged to alter the prevailing sentiment ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from July 27, 2026, through August 2, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Mercado Aberto: Jul 24, 2026, 7:05 PM ET
Volume
$5,109Data de Término
2 ago 2026Mercado Aberto
Jul 24, 2026, 7:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from July 27, 2026, through August 2, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Persistent Houthi attacks and threats in the Red Sea continue to suppress transits through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, driving the strong 68% market-implied probability for fewer than 200 ships in the week of July 27. Recent Kpler data showed only 39 commodity vessels on July 28—the highest daily total since July 19—and just five the following day, confirming the sustained rerouting of container, tanker, and dry-bulk traffic around the Cape of Good Hope. Elevated war-risk premiums, higher fuel costs, and longer voyage times reinforce this shift, with traders viewing the low baseline volumes as structural rather than temporary. No immediate de-escalation signals have emerged to alter the prevailing sentiment ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from July 27, 2026, through August 2, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Volume
$5,109Data de Término
2 ago 2026Mercado Aberto
Jul 24, 2026, 7:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent Houthi attacks and threats in the Red Sea continue to suppress transits through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, driving the strong 68% market-implied probability for fewer than 200 ships in the week of July 27. Recent Kpler data showed only 39 commodity vessels on July 28—the highest daily total since July 19—and just five the following day, confirming the sustained rerouting of container, tanker, and dry-bulk traffic around the Cape of Good Hope. Elevated war-risk premiums, higher fuel costs, and longer voyage times reinforce this shift, with traders viewing the low baseline volumes as structural rather than temporary. No immediate de-escalation signals have emerged to alter the prevailing sentiment ahead of resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions