**Ongoing Houthi attacks and a declared naval blockade targeting Saudi-linked vessels have sharply curtailed commercial traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait during the week of July 20, 2026, driving the overwhelming 99% market-implied probability of fewer than 220 transits.** Recent developments, including strikes on Saudi oil facilities and tankers plus warnings against Red Sea routing, prompted widespread diversions around the Cape of Good Hope. Shipping data from firms like Kpler and Lloyd’s List Intelligence showed daily commodity-vessel crossings falling to the low dozens or below on multiple days, with weekly tanker volumes dropping more than 40% versus the prior period amid elevated war-risk insurance premiums and compliance concerns. This reflects sustained rerouting economics, as carriers weigh longer voyage times and higher costs against the strait’s strategic oil and container flows. The consensus aligns with the wisdom of crowds in prediction markets, where real capital at risk incentivizes accurate assessment of persistent geopolitical friction. A realistic scenario that could challenge the sub-220 outcome would require rapid de-escalation—such as a verified ceasefire halting Houthi operations or major naval protection enabling a swift rebound in transits—though current conflict dynamics make such a shift improbable within the resolution window.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoQuantos navios transitam na semana do Estreito de Bab el-Mandeb de 20 de julho?
Quantos navios transitam na semana do Estreito de Bab el-Mandeb de 20 de julho?
<220 99.0%
220-229 <1%
230-239 <1%
240-249 <1%
$18,374 Vol.
$18,374 Vol.
26 jul 2026
<220
99%
220-229
1%
230-239
<1%
240-249
<1%
250-259
<1%
260+
<1%
<220 99.0%
220-229 <1%
230-239 <1%
240-249 <1%
$18,374 Vol.
$18,374 Vol.
26 jul 2026
<220
$9,593 Vol.
99%
220-229
$2,723 Vol.
1%
230-239
$1,274 Vol.
<1%
240-249
$1,530 Vol.
<1%
250-259
$1,298 Vol.
<1%
260+
$1,957 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from July 20, 2026, through July 26, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
**Ongoing Houthi attacks and a declared naval blockade targeting Saudi-linked vessels have sharply curtailed commercial traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait during the week of July 20, 2026, driving the overwhelming 99% market-implied probability of fewer than 220 transits.**
Recent developments, including strikes on Saudi oil facilities and tankers plus warnings against Red Sea routing, prompted widespread diversions around the Cape of Good Hope. Shipping data from firms like Kpler and Lloyd’s List Intelligence showed daily commodity-vessel crossings falling to the low dozens or below on multiple days, with weekly tanker volumes dropping more than 40% versus the prior period amid elevated war-risk insurance premiums and compliance concerns. This reflects sustained rerouting economics, as carriers weigh longer voyage times and higher costs against the strait’s strategic oil and container flows.
The consensus aligns with the wisdom of crowds in prediction markets, where real capital at risk incentivizes accurate assessment of persistent geopolitical friction. A realistic scenario that could challenge the sub-220 outcome would require rapid de-escalation—such as a verified ceasefire halting Houthi operations or major naval protection enabling a swift rebound in transits—though current conflict dynamics make such a shift improbable within the resolution window.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from July 20, 2026, through July 26, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Mercado Aberto: Jul 13, 2026, 11:14 PM ET
Volume
$18,374Data de Término
26 jul 2026Mercado Aberto
Jul 13, 2026, 11:14 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from July 20, 2026, through July 26, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
**Ongoing Houthi attacks and a declared naval blockade targeting Saudi-linked vessels have sharply curtailed commercial traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait during the week of July 20, 2026, driving the overwhelming 99% market-implied probability of fewer than 220 transits.**
Recent developments, including strikes on Saudi oil facilities and tankers plus warnings against Red Sea routing, prompted widespread diversions around the Cape of Good Hope. Shipping data from firms like Kpler and Lloyd’s List Intelligence showed daily commodity-vessel crossings falling to the low dozens or below on multiple days, with weekly tanker volumes dropping more than 40% versus the prior period amid elevated war-risk insurance premiums and compliance concerns. This reflects sustained rerouting economics, as carriers weigh longer voyage times and higher costs against the strait’s strategic oil and container flows.
The consensus aligns with the wisdom of crowds in prediction markets, where real capital at risk incentivizes accurate assessment of persistent geopolitical friction. A realistic scenario that could challenge the sub-220 outcome would require rapid de-escalation—such as a verified ceasefire halting Houthi operations or major naval protection enabling a swift rebound in transits—though current conflict dynamics make such a shift improbable within the resolution window.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from July 20, 2026, through July 26, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Volume
$18,374Data de Término
26 jul 2026Mercado Aberto
Jul 13, 2026, 11:14 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Ongoing Houthi attacks and a declared naval blockade targeting Saudi-linked vessels have sharply curtailed commercial traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait during the week of July 20, 2026, driving the overwhelming 99% market-implied probability of fewer than 220 transits.** Recent developments, including strikes on Saudi oil facilities and tankers plus warnings against Red Sea routing, prompted widespread diversions around the Cape of Good Hope. Shipping data from firms like Kpler and Lloyd’s List Intelligence showed daily commodity-vessel crossings falling to the low dozens or below on multiple days, with weekly tanker volumes dropping more than 40% versus the prior period amid elevated war-risk insurance premiums and compliance concerns. This reflects sustained rerouting economics, as carriers weigh longer voyage times and higher costs against the strait’s strategic oil and container flows. The consensus aligns with the wisdom of crowds in prediction markets, where real capital at risk incentivizes accurate assessment of persistent geopolitical friction. A realistic scenario that could challenge the sub-220 outcome would require rapid de-escalation—such as a verified ceasefire halting Houthi operations or major naval protection enabling a swift rebound in transits—though current conflict dynamics make such a shift improbable within the resolution window.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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