**Current model guidance from MetService and supporting global forecasts positions a daily maximum of 12–13°C as the most likely outcome for Wellington on August 7, aligning with the market’s heavy weighting toward those two bins.** August climatology in the capital features average highs near 12–13°C amid cool southerly flows and frequent cloud or showers, and the latest short-range runs show no significant departure from this baseline. A fine but frosty start on the 7th is expected to give way to partly cloudy skies with light northwesterlies or variable winds that limit daytime warming, keeping the peak in the narrow 12–13°C window. Recent developments include a cool, showery spell earlier in the week that reinforced below-normal temperatures, followed by stabilization in the forecast as high pressure builds without introducing warmer northerly air. Model consensus remains tight on the maximum, with only modest spread that explains the smaller probabilities assigned to 14°C or 11°C. Traders appear to be pricing the latest official guidance and ensemble spreads directly, with the 13°C outcome capturing the central tendency of both deterministic and probabilistic forecasts.