Recent polling shows Black Republican identification and vote intention clustered in the low-to-mid teens ahead of the 2026 midterms, with Pew reporting 14% Republican or lean-Republican affiliation in 2026 after modest 2024 gains. Those gains, reaching roughly 15% for Trump in validated 2024 data, reflected shifts among younger Black men and independents driven by economic messaging, yet subsequent surveys indicate erosion tied to inflation, unemployment trends, and second-term policy actions including tariffs and program rollbacks. Congressional ballot polls range from 13% to 23% Republican support, creating uncertainty over whether 2024 momentum persists, stabilizes near 14-15%, or slips lower. Trader consensus remains tight because scheduled midterm outcomes hinge on turnout patterns and economic sentiment among Black voters, with limited new catalysts to separate the leading bins.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado12–13% 46%
8–9% 45%
10–11% 42%
14–15% 42%
NOVO
NOVO
6 nov 2026
<8%
37%
8–9%
45%
10–11%
42%
12–13%
46%
14–15%
42%
16–17%
40%
18%+
36%
12–13% 46%
8–9% 45%
10–11% 42%
14–15% 42%
NOVO
NOVO
6 nov 2026
<8%
$20 Vol.
37%
8–9%
$20 Vol.
45%
10–11%
$20 Vol.
42%
12–13%
$20 Vol.
46%
14–15%
$20 Vol.
42%
16–17%
$20 Vol.
40%
18%+
$20 Vol.
36%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the Black vote won by Republicans in the midterm elections according to exit polling provided by CNN.
This market will resolve according to the national exit polling for the United States House, as viewed on the applicable cnn.com webpage at 12:00PM ET on November 6, 2026.
For purposes of this market, the terms "Black" and "African-American" will be considered synonymous.
In the event that CNN provides applicable exit polling but it is not available at the time specified above, this market will await an update for one full calendar day before moving to the media organizations listed below.
In the event that CNN does not provide applicable exit polling, this market will resolve according to the exit polling provided by CBS or, should CBS also not provide applicable polling, ABC.
In the event that the resolution source reports numbers that are contain one or more decimal point, this market will resolve based on the result of rounding such a number to the nearest whole number.
If none of the listed organizations provide applicable exit polling by November 7, 2026 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. Recent polling shows Black Republican identification and vote intention clustered in the low-to-mid teens ahead of the 2026 midterms, with Pew reporting 14% Republican or lean-Republican affiliation in 2026 after modest 2024 gains. Those gains, reaching roughly 15% for Trump in validated 2024 data, reflected shifts among younger Black men and independents driven by economic messaging, yet subsequent surveys indicate erosion tied to inflation, unemployment trends, and second-term policy actions including tariffs and program rollbacks. Congressional ballot polls range from 13% to 23% Republican support, creating uncertainty over whether 2024 momentum persists, stabilizes near 14-15%, or slips lower. Trader consensus remains tight because scheduled midterm outcomes hinge on turnout patterns and economic sentiment among Black voters, with limited new catalysts to separate the leading bins.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the Black vote won by Republicans in the midterm elections according to exit polling provided by CNN.
This market will resolve according to the national exit polling for the United States House, as viewed on the applicable cnn.com webpage at 12:00PM ET on November 6, 2026.
For purposes of this market, the terms "Black" and "African-American" will be considered synonymous.
In the event that CNN provides applicable exit polling but it is not available at the time specified above, this market will await an update for one full calendar day before moving to the media organizations listed below.
In the event that CNN does not provide applicable exit polling, this market will resolve according to the exit polling provided by CBS or, should CBS also not provide applicable polling, ABC.
In the event that the resolution source reports numbers that are contain one or more decimal point, this market will resolve based on the result of rounding such a number to the nearest whole number.
If none of the listed organizations provide applicable exit polling by November 7, 2026 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the Black vote won by Republicans in the midterm elections according to exit polling provided by CNN.
This market will resolve according to the national exit polling for the United States House, as viewed on the applicable cnn.com webpage at 12:00PM ET on November 6, 2026.
For purposes of this market, the terms "Black" and "African-American" will be considered synonymous.
In the event that CNN provides applicable exit polling but it is not available at the time specified above, this market will await an update for one full calendar day before moving to the media organizations listed below.
In the event that CNN does not provide applicable exit polling, this market will resolve according to the exit polling provided by CBS or, should CBS also not provide applicable polling, ABC.
In the event that the resolution source reports numbers that are contain one or more decimal point, this market will resolve based on the result of rounding such a number to the nearest whole number.
If none of the listed organizations provide applicable exit polling by November 7, 2026 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Mercado Aberto: Sep 2, 2026, 2:11 PM ET
Volume
$140Data de Término
7 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Sep 2, 2026, 2:11 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the Black vote won by Republicans in the midterm elections according to exit polling provided by CNN.
This market will resolve according to the national exit polling for the United States House, as viewed on the applicable cnn.com webpage at 12:00PM ET on November 6, 2026.
For purposes of this market, the terms "Black" and "African-American" will be considered synonymous.
In the event that CNN provides applicable exit polling but it is not available at the time specified above, this market will await an update for one full calendar day before moving to the media organizations listed below.
In the event that CNN does not provide applicable exit polling, this market will resolve according to the exit polling provided by CBS or, should CBS also not provide applicable polling, ABC.
In the event that the resolution source reports numbers that are contain one or more decimal point, this market will resolve based on the result of rounding such a number to the nearest whole number.
If none of the listed organizations provide applicable exit polling by November 7, 2026 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. Recent polling shows Black Republican identification and vote intention clustered in the low-to-mid teens ahead of the 2026 midterms, with Pew reporting 14% Republican or lean-Republican affiliation in 2026 after modest 2024 gains. Those gains, reaching roughly 15% for Trump in validated 2024 data, reflected shifts among younger Black men and independents driven by economic messaging, yet subsequent surveys indicate erosion tied to inflation, unemployment trends, and second-term policy actions including tariffs and program rollbacks. Congressional ballot polls range from 13% to 23% Republican support, creating uncertainty over whether 2024 momentum persists, stabilizes near 14-15%, or slips lower. Trader consensus remains tight because scheduled midterm outcomes hinge on turnout patterns and economic sentiment among Black voters, with limited new catalysts to separate the leading bins.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the Black vote won by Republicans in the midterm elections according to exit polling provided by CNN.
This market will resolve according to the national exit polling for the United States House, as viewed on the applicable cnn.com webpage at 12:00PM ET on November 6, 2026.
For purposes of this market, the terms "Black" and "African-American" will be considered synonymous.
In the event that CNN provides applicable exit polling but it is not available at the time specified above, this market will await an update for one full calendar day before moving to the media organizations listed below.
In the event that CNN does not provide applicable exit polling, this market will resolve according to the exit polling provided by CBS or, should CBS also not provide applicable polling, ABC.
In the event that the resolution source reports numbers that are contain one or more decimal point, this market will resolve based on the result of rounding such a number to the nearest whole number.
If none of the listed organizations provide applicable exit polling by November 7, 2026 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the Black vote won by Republicans in the midterm elections according to exit polling provided by CNN.
This market will resolve according to the national exit polling for the United States House, as viewed on the applicable cnn.com webpage at 12:00PM ET on November 6, 2026.
For purposes of this market, the terms "Black" and "African-American" will be considered synonymous.
In the event that CNN provides applicable exit polling but it is not available at the time specified above, this market will await an update for one full calendar day before moving to the media organizations listed below.
In the event that CNN does not provide applicable exit polling, this market will resolve according to the exit polling provided by CBS or, should CBS also not provide applicable polling, ABC.
In the event that the resolution source reports numbers that are contain one or more decimal point, this market will resolve based on the result of rounding such a number to the nearest whole number.
If none of the listed organizations provide applicable exit polling by November 7, 2026 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Volume
$140Data de Término
7 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Sep 2, 2026, 2:11 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling shows Black Republican identification and vote intention clustered in the low-to-mid teens ahead of the 2026 midterms, with Pew reporting 14% Republican or lean-Republican affiliation in 2026 after modest 2024 gains. Those gains, reaching roughly 15% for Trump in validated 2024 data, reflected shifts among younger Black men and independents driven by economic messaging, yet subsequent surveys indicate erosion tied to inflation, unemployment trends, and second-term policy actions including tariffs and program rollbacks. Congressional ballot polls range from 13% to 23% Republican support, creating uncertainty over whether 2024 momentum persists, stabilizes near 14-15%, or slips lower. Trader consensus remains tight because scheduled midterm outcomes hinge on turnout patterns and economic sentiment among Black voters, with limited new catalysts to separate the leading bins.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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