**Erdoğan’s current presidential term, secured in the 2023 election, runs through the scheduled 2028 vote under Turkey’s presidential system.** No snap election has been called, and constitutional term-limit provisions do not force an exit before 2028. Recent judicial actions have further consolidated his position, including the May 2026 appeals court ruling that ousted main opposition CHP leader Özgür Özel and reinstated his predecessor, alongside ongoing prosecutions of other opposition figures such as Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu. These moves, widely viewed as weakening the primary challengers, align with Erdoğan’s long-standing control over key institutions. With roughly six months remaining until the market resolution date and no procedural mechanisms or acute political crises triggering an early departure, trader consensus prices the probability of him leaving office by December 31, 2026, at only 6.5%. Speculation about constitutional changes or snap polls centers on 2028 or later, not the immediate horizon.