Elon Musk’s established daily tweeting patterns on X drive the 40-64 outcome to a 58.5% implied probability, as traders price in his typical output of roughly 13–21 posts across a three-day window based on verified historical volumes. Recent platform activity and business-related commentary have shown no major sustained spikes or lulls that would shift the distribution toward lower or higher bins, keeping the sub-40 range as the secondary consensus at 24.5%. With the August 8–10 period nearing its close, limited time remains for unexpected surges tied to breaking news or personal announcements to materially alter the market-implied odds.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado40-64 59%
<40 25%
65-89 15%
90-114 2.4%
$149,204 Vol.
$149,204 Vol.
10 ago 2026
<40
25%
40-64
59%
65-89
15%
90-114
2%
115-139
1%
140-164
<1%
165-189
<1%
190-214
<1%
215-239
<1%
240+
<1%
40-64 59%
<40 25%
65-89 15%
90-114 2.4%
$149,204 Vol.
$149,204 Vol.
10 ago 2026
<40
$29,134 Vol.
25%
40-64
$16,167 Vol.
59%
65-89
$21,611 Vol.
15%
90-114
$26,740 Vol.
2%
115-139
$18,841 Vol.
1%
140-164
$10,827 Vol.
<1%
165-189
$11,580 Vol.
<1%
190-214
$3,943 Vol.
<1%
215-239
$5,406 Vol.
<1%
240+
$5,514 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 8 12:00 PM ET to August 10, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.poly.havingsomuch.fun. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Elon Musk’s established daily tweeting patterns on X drive the 40-64 outcome to a 58.5% implied probability, as traders price in his typical output of roughly 13–21 posts across a three-day window based on verified historical volumes. Recent platform activity and business-related commentary have shown no major sustained spikes or lulls that would shift the distribution toward lower or higher bins, keeping the sub-40 range as the secondary consensus at 24.5%. With the August 8–10 period nearing its close, limited time remains for unexpected surges tied to breaking news or personal announcements to materially alter the market-implied odds.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 8 12:00 PM ET to August 10, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.poly.havingsomuch.fun. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.poly.havingsomuch.fun. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Mercado Aberto: Aug 6, 2026, 12:07 PM ET
Volume
$149,204Data de Término
10 ago 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 6, 2026, 12:07 PM ETFonte de resolução
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 8 12:00 PM ET to August 10, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.poly.havingsomuch.fun. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Elon Musk’s established daily tweeting patterns on X drive the 40-64 outcome to a 58.5% implied probability, as traders price in his typical output of roughly 13–21 posts across a three-day window based on verified historical volumes. Recent platform activity and business-related commentary have shown no major sustained spikes or lulls that would shift the distribution toward lower or higher bins, keeping the sub-40 range as the secondary consensus at 24.5%. With the August 8–10 period nearing its close, limited time remains for unexpected surges tied to breaking news or personal announcements to materially alter the market-implied odds.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 8 12:00 PM ET to August 10, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.poly.havingsomuch.fun. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.poly.havingsomuch.fun. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Volume
$149,204Data de Término
10 ago 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 6, 2026, 12:07 PM ETFonte de resolução
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elon Musk’s established daily tweeting patterns on X drive the 40-64 outcome to a 58.5% implied probability, as traders price in his typical output of roughly 13–21 posts across a three-day window based on verified historical volumes. Recent platform activity and business-related commentary have shown no major sustained spikes or lulls that would shift the distribution toward lower or higher bins, keeping the sub-40 range as the secondary consensus at 24.5%. With the August 8–10 period nearing its close, limited time remains for unexpected surges tied to breaking news or personal announcements to materially alter the market-implied odds.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions