María Corina Machado, the Venezuelan opposition leader and 2025 Nobel Peace Prize recipient, remains outside the country following Nicolás Maduro’s capture by U.S. forces earlier in 2026. She has publicly stated plans to return by the end of 2026 or early 2027 while preparing another presidential bid, but security concerns, ongoing political transition dynamics, and the need to coordinate with interim authorities have kept her return on hold. Recent interviews and announcements emphasize a deliberate timeline rather than immediate re-entry, aligning with low near-term probabilities on related prediction markets. Key upcoming catalysts include any formal transition milestones, diplomatic recognitions, or scheduled political events through year-end that could alter the risk assessment for her physical return.