The ICJ case brought by South Africa alleging Israeli violations of the Genocide Convention remains in preliminary written pleadings, with Israel's counter-memorial filed in March 2026 and South Africa's reply due only in November 2027. Subsequent rejoinder and potential oral hearings extend well into 2029, consistent with the court's historical pace for complex state-responsibility disputes. No merits decision or finding of genocidal intent has occurred, and ICC proceedings focus on separate war-crimes allegations without advancing genocide charges. Traders assign an 82% probability to no conviction by the 2027 cutoff because final ICJ rulings on such claims typically require years of evidence review and deliberation after pleadings close.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano$91,457 Wol.
$91,457 Wol.
Dec 31, 2027
$91,457 Wol.
$91,457 Wol.
Dec 31, 2027
This market will resolve to "Yes" if he International Criminal Court ("ICC"), the International Court of Justice ("ICJ"), or any ad hoc international tribunal with recognized legal standing, issues a judgment or conviction finding that either the State of Israel or any current or former Israeli official committed genocide or acts of genocide by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
For the judgment of an ad hoc tribunal to be relevant for purposes of this market, the tribunal must be established by the United Nations or any body thereof.
A first-instance conviction or judgment shall qualify for "Yes" resolution even if it remains subject to appeal or has not yet been affirmed on appeal.
Preliminary or provisional findings that are not judgments on the merits will not qualify for purposes of this market.
The resolution source will be official statements from the ICC, the ICJ, or a qualifying ad hoc tribunal; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
The ICJ case brought by South Africa alleging Israeli violations of the Genocide Convention remains in preliminary written pleadings, with Israel's counter-memorial filed in March 2026 and South Africa's reply due only in November 2027. Subsequent rejoinder and potential oral hearings extend well into 2029, consistent with the court's historical pace for complex state-responsibility disputes. No merits decision or finding of genocidal intent has occurred, and ICC proceedings focus on separate war-crimes allegations without advancing genocide charges. Traders assign an 82% probability to no conviction by the 2027 cutoff because final ICJ rulings on such claims typically require years of evidence review and deliberation after pleadings close.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if he International Criminal Court ("ICC"), the International Court of Justice ("ICJ"), or any ad hoc international tribunal with recognized legal standing, issues a judgment or conviction finding that either the State of Israel or any current or former Israeli official committed genocide or acts of genocide by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
For the judgment of an ad hoc tribunal to be relevant for purposes of this market, the tribunal must be established by the United Nations or any body thereof.
A first-instance conviction or judgment shall qualify for "Yes" resolution even if it remains subject to appeal or has not yet been affirmed on appeal.
Preliminary or provisional findings that are not judgments on the merits will not qualify for purposes of this market.
The resolution source will be official statements from the ICC, the ICJ, or a qualifying ad hoc tribunal; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
For the judgment of an ad hoc tribunal to be relevant for purposes of this market, the tribunal must be established by the United Nations or any body thereof.
A first-instance conviction or judgment shall qualify for "Yes" resolution even if it remains subject to appeal or has not yet been affirmed on appeal.
Preliminary or provisional findings that are not judgments on the merits will not qualify for purposes of this market.
The resolution source will be official statements from the ICC, the ICJ, or a qualifying ad hoc tribunal; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Rynek otwarty: Jun 29, 2026, 3:31 PM ET
Wolumen
$91,457Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2027Rynek otwarty
Jun 29, 2026, 3:31 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if he International Criminal Court ("ICC"), the International Court of Justice ("ICJ"), or any ad hoc international tribunal with recognized legal standing, issues a judgment or conviction finding that either the State of Israel or any current or former Israeli official committed genocide or acts of genocide by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
For the judgment of an ad hoc tribunal to be relevant for purposes of this market, the tribunal must be established by the United Nations or any body thereof.
A first-instance conviction or judgment shall qualify for "Yes" resolution even if it remains subject to appeal or has not yet been affirmed on appeal.
Preliminary or provisional findings that are not judgments on the merits will not qualify for purposes of this market.
The resolution source will be official statements from the ICC, the ICJ, or a qualifying ad hoc tribunal; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
The ICJ case brought by South Africa alleging Israeli violations of the Genocide Convention remains in preliminary written pleadings, with Israel's counter-memorial filed in March 2026 and South Africa's reply due only in November 2027. Subsequent rejoinder and potential oral hearings extend well into 2029, consistent with the court's historical pace for complex state-responsibility disputes. No merits decision or finding of genocidal intent has occurred, and ICC proceedings focus on separate war-crimes allegations without advancing genocide charges. Traders assign an 82% probability to no conviction by the 2027 cutoff because final ICJ rulings on such claims typically require years of evidence review and deliberation after pleadings close.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if he International Criminal Court ("ICC"), the International Court of Justice ("ICJ"), or any ad hoc international tribunal with recognized legal standing, issues a judgment or conviction finding that either the State of Israel or any current or former Israeli official committed genocide or acts of genocide by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
For the judgment of an ad hoc tribunal to be relevant for purposes of this market, the tribunal must be established by the United Nations or any body thereof.
A first-instance conviction or judgment shall qualify for "Yes" resolution even if it remains subject to appeal or has not yet been affirmed on appeal.
Preliminary or provisional findings that are not judgments on the merits will not qualify for purposes of this market.
The resolution source will be official statements from the ICC, the ICJ, or a qualifying ad hoc tribunal; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
For the judgment of an ad hoc tribunal to be relevant for purposes of this market, the tribunal must be established by the United Nations or any body thereof.
A first-instance conviction or judgment shall qualify for "Yes" resolution even if it remains subject to appeal or has not yet been affirmed on appeal.
Preliminary or provisional findings that are not judgments on the merits will not qualify for purposes of this market.
The resolution source will be official statements from the ICC, the ICJ, or a qualifying ad hoc tribunal; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Wolumen
$91,457Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2027Rynek otwarty
Jun 29, 2026, 3:31 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The ICJ case brought by South Africa alleging Israeli violations of the Genocide Convention remains in preliminary written pleadings, with Israel's counter-memorial filed in March 2026 and South Africa's reply due only in November 2027. Subsequent rejoinder and potential oral hearings extend well into 2029, consistent with the court's historical pace for complex state-responsibility disputes. No merits decision or finding of genocidal intent has occurred, and ICC proceedings focus on separate war-crimes allegations without advancing genocide charges. Traders assign an 82% probability to no conviction by the 2027 cutoff because final ICJ rulings on such claims typically require years of evidence review and deliberation after pleadings close.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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