Recent polls ahead of the September 6 Sachsen-Anhalt Landtag election place the BSW at 3–4 percent, anchoring trader consensus on the 3–5 percent band. Consistent readings from Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, INSA, Civey, and Infratest dimap show little movement in the final weeks, with the party hovering near but generally below the five-percent threshold required for seats. Internal tensions, including August exits by members citing the party’s rhetorical direction, have not produced measurable polling gains or losses. Sahra Wagenknecht’s campaign appearances and the BSW’s emphasis on social and foreign-policy themes have sustained a modest base without broadening it enough to clear the hurdle reliably. The narrow gap between current estimates and the threshold explains why probabilities cluster around the 3–5 percent interval while assigning lower weight to both sub-3 percent and 5–7 percent outcomes.