Recent polling in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern shows the SPD gaining ground ahead of the 20 September 2026 Landtag election, narrowing AfD’s lead to three to nine points in late August surveys. Infratest dimap placed the SPD at 32 percent (up three points since July), while Forsa and INSA recorded 28–29 percent. Incumbent Minister President Manuela Schwesig remains the preferred choice for head of government in head-to-head tests. The current SPD–Left coalition lacks a majority in most projections, increasing pressure on smaller parties such as the Greens to clear the five-percent threshold. Traders appear to view these late-campaign dynamics and Schwesig’s personal support as supportive of an SPD result at or above 31 percent, though results remain sensitive to turnout and final-week shifts.