**Lee Jae-myung’s position as South Korea’s incumbent president since June 2025 anchors the 90.8% “No” probability on arrest before 2027.** Constitutional immunity under Article 84 shields sitting presidents from most criminal proceedings, prompting courts to indefinitely suspend all five of his pre-election trials—including the election-law case remanded by the Supreme Court and various corruption allegations—shortly after his victory. The Democratic Party’s continued legislative strength and Lee’s approval ratings near 60% following the 2026 local elections further reduce near-term legal pressure. No major prosecutorial actions or court reversals have emerged in 2026 to alter this dynamic, leaving the suspended proceedings unlikely to produce an arrest within the timeframe.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoLee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?
Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?
$519,986 Wol.
$519,986 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
$519,986 Wol.
$519,986 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Leader of the Democratic Party of Korea Lee Jae-myung is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Lee Jae-myung’s position as South Korea’s incumbent president since June 2025 anchors the 90.8% “No” probability on arrest before 2027.** Constitutional immunity under Article 84 shields sitting presidents from most criminal proceedings, prompting courts to indefinitely suspend all five of his pre-election trials—including the election-law case remanded by the Supreme Court and various corruption allegations—shortly after his victory. The Democratic Party’s continued legislative strength and Lee’s approval ratings near 60% following the 2026 local elections further reduce near-term legal pressure. No major prosecutorial actions or court reversals have emerged in 2026 to alter this dynamic, leaving the suspended proceedings unlikely to produce an arrest within the timeframe.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Leader of the Democratic Party of Korea Lee Jae-myung is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rynek otwarty: Nov 5, 2025, 12:46 PM ET
Wolumen
$519,986Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Nov 5, 2025, 12:46 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Leader of the Democratic Party of Korea Lee Jae-myung is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Lee Jae-myung’s position as South Korea’s incumbent president since June 2025 anchors the 90.8% “No” probability on arrest before 2027.** Constitutional immunity under Article 84 shields sitting presidents from most criminal proceedings, prompting courts to indefinitely suspend all five of his pre-election trials—including the election-law case remanded by the Supreme Court and various corruption allegations—shortly after his victory. The Democratic Party’s continued legislative strength and Lee’s approval ratings near 60% following the 2026 local elections further reduce near-term legal pressure. No major prosecutorial actions or court reversals have emerged in 2026 to alter this dynamic, leaving the suspended proceedings unlikely to produce an arrest within the timeframe.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Leader of the Democratic Party of Korea Lee Jae-myung is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Wolumen
$519,986Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Nov 5, 2025, 12:46 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Lee Jae-myung’s position as South Korea’s incumbent president since June 2025 anchors the 90.8% “No” probability on arrest before 2027.** Constitutional immunity under Article 84 shields sitting presidents from most criminal proceedings, prompting courts to indefinitely suspend all five of his pre-election trials—including the election-law case remanded by the Supreme Court and various corruption allegations—shortly after his victory. The Democratic Party’s continued legislative strength and Lee’s approval ratings near 60% following the 2026 local elections further reduce near-term legal pressure. No major prosecutorial actions or court reversals have emerged in 2026 to alter this dynamic, leaving the suspended proceedings unlikely to produce an arrest within the timeframe.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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