**Recent polling for Israel's October 27, 2026, Knesset election shows United Torah Judaism (UTJ) consistently projected at 7–8 seats, equating to roughly 6–7% of the vote.** This range commands the highest market probability because multiple September surveys from firms including Kantar, Midgam, and Direct Polls place the Ashkenazi Haredi party in that band amid stable core support from its ultra-Orthodox voter base. Internal party turbulence during slate submissions in early September, including leadership shifts and factional splits, has not materially altered turnout expectations or produced measurable erosion. Broader coalition dynamics and the unresolved Haredi draft-exemption issue continue to anchor UTJ's position without driving significant volatility in its standalone vote share. Traders appear to view 5–6% or 7–8% as plausible secondary outcomes depending on final mobilization and any late list adjustments.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano6-7% 48%
5-6% 32%
7-8% 11%
<5% 8%
NOWE
NOWE
Nov 30, 2026
<5%
8%
5-6%
32%
6-7%
48%
7-8%
11%
8%+
4%
6-7% 48%
5-6% 32%
7-8% 11%
<5% 8%
NOWE
NOWE
Nov 30, 2026
<5%
$185 Wol.
8%
5-6%
$134 Wol.
32%
6-7%
$113 Wol.
48%
7-8%
$94 Wol.
11%
8%+
$285 Wol.
4%
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by United Torah Judaism party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by United Torah Judaism's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether United Torah Judaism passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If United Torah Judaism contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If United Torah Judaism merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).**Recent polling for Israel's October 27, 2026, Knesset election shows United Torah Judaism (UTJ) consistently projected at 7–8 seats, equating to roughly 6–7% of the vote.** This range commands the highest market probability because multiple September surveys from firms including Kantar, Midgam, and Direct Polls place the Ashkenazi Haredi party in that band amid stable core support from its ultra-Orthodox voter base. Internal party turbulence during slate submissions in early September, including leadership shifts and factional splits, has not materially altered turnout expectations or produced measurable erosion. Broader coalition dynamics and the unresolved Haredi draft-exemption issue continue to anchor UTJ's position without driving significant volatility in its standalone vote share. Traders appear to view 5–6% or 7–8% as plausible secondary outcomes depending on final mobilization and any late list adjustments.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by United Torah Judaism party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by United Torah Judaism's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether United Torah Judaism passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If United Torah Judaism contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If United Torah Judaism merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by United Torah Judaism party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by United Torah Judaism's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether United Torah Judaism passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If United Torah Judaism contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If United Torah Judaism merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
Rynek otwarty: Sep 8, 2026, 4:18 PM ET
Wolumen
$811Data zakończenia
Oct 27, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 8, 2026, 4:18 PM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.bechirot.gov.il/Rozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by United Torah Judaism party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by United Torah Judaism's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether United Torah Judaism passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If United Torah Judaism contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If United Torah Judaism merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).**Recent polling for Israel's October 27, 2026, Knesset election shows United Torah Judaism (UTJ) consistently projected at 7–8 seats, equating to roughly 6–7% of the vote.** This range commands the highest market probability because multiple September surveys from firms including Kantar, Midgam, and Direct Polls place the Ashkenazi Haredi party in that band amid stable core support from its ultra-Orthodox voter base. Internal party turbulence during slate submissions in early September, including leadership shifts and factional splits, has not materially altered turnout expectations or produced measurable erosion. Broader coalition dynamics and the unresolved Haredi draft-exemption issue continue to anchor UTJ's position without driving significant volatility in its standalone vote share. Traders appear to view 5–6% or 7–8% as plausible secondary outcomes depending on final mobilization and any late list adjustments.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by United Torah Judaism party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by United Torah Judaism's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether United Torah Judaism passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If United Torah Judaism contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If United Torah Judaism merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by United Torah Judaism party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by United Torah Judaism's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether United Torah Judaism passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If United Torah Judaism contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If United Torah Judaism merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
Wolumen
$811Data zakończenia
Oct 27, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 8, 2026, 4:18 PM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.bechirot.gov.il/Rozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...**Recent polling for Israel's October 27, 2026, Knesset election shows United Torah Judaism (UTJ) consistently projected at 7–8 seats, equating to roughly 6–7% of the vote.** This range commands the highest market probability because multiple September surveys from firms including Kantar, Midgam, and Direct Polls place the Ashkenazi Haredi party in that band amid stable core support from its ultra-Orthodox voter base. Internal party turbulence during slate submissions in early September, including leadership shifts and factional splits, has not materially altered turnout expectations or produced measurable erosion. Broader coalition dynamics and the unresolved Haredi draft-exemption issue continue to anchor UTJ's position without driving significant volatility in its standalone vote share. Traders appear to view 5–6% or 7–8% as plausible secondary outcomes depending on final mobilization and any late list adjustments.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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