The Ongo Niua 17 by-election, set for 8 October 2026, follows the Supreme Court’s decision to void the 2025 result after convicting the prior winner of bribery tied to voter distributions. Five candidates registered after nominations closed in early September, each drawing primary support from specific villages across the small Niuas constituency. With no dominant frontrunner or recent polling to clarify preferences, trader consensus reflects evenly matched probabilities across the field. Village-level loyalties, the limited electorate, and absence of major endorsements or campaign developments have kept implied probabilities tightly grouped. The outcome will hinge on turnout patterns and localized mobilization in the final weeks before polling.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano'Aisake Hoatatau Finau 46%
Sione Tuifio Hui 46%
Sitiveni Selui 44%
'Aminiasi Tonga Pau'u Tangimana 42%
'Aisake Hoatatau Finau
46%
Sione Tuifio Hui
46%
Sitiveni Selui
44%
'Aminiasi Tonga Pau'u Tangimana
42%
Paea 'i Vaha Filimoehala
31%
'Aisake Hoatatau Finau 46%
Sione Tuifio Hui 46%
Sitiveni Selui 44%
'Aminiasi Tonga Pau'u Tangimana 42%
'Aisake Hoatatau Finau
46%
Sione Tuifio Hui
46%
Sitiveni Selui
44%
'Aminiasi Tonga Pau'u Tangimana
42%
Paea 'i Vaha Filimoehala
31%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Ongo Niua 17 by-election to the Legislative Assembly of Tonga.
If the result of this election isn’t known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Tonga Electoral Commission (https://elections.gov.to/; https://www.facebook.com/KomisoniFili).
Rynek otwarty: Sep 9, 2026, 6:05 PM ET
Rozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Ongo Niua 17 by-election to the Legislative Assembly of Tonga.
If the result of this election isn’t known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Tonga Electoral Commission (https://elections.gov.to/; https://www.facebook.com/KomisoniFili).
Rozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...The Ongo Niua 17 by-election, set for 8 October 2026, follows the Supreme Court’s decision to void the 2025 result after convicting the prior winner of bribery tied to voter distributions. Five candidates registered after nominations closed in early September, each drawing primary support from specific villages across the small Niuas constituency. With no dominant frontrunner or recent polling to clarify preferences, trader consensus reflects evenly matched probabilities across the field. Village-level loyalties, the limited electorate, and absence of major endorsements or campaign developments have kept implied probabilities tightly grouped. The outcome will hinge on turnout patterns and localized mobilization in the final weeks before polling.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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