Iceland’s August 29 referendum produced a narrow rejection of resuming EU accession negotiations, with the “No” side prevailing 52.5% to 47.5% according to broadcaster RÚV projections as counting concluded. Rural constituencies delivered decisive opposition driven by fishing rights and sovereignty concerns, while the capital Reykjavík backed renewed talks; this geographic split produced the slim margin that aligns with the market’s dominant pricing. Prime Minister Kristrún Frostadóttir’s centre-left government had advanced the vote earlier than its original 2027 timeline amid external pressures, yet the outcome leaves the long-suspended process closed for the foreseeable future absent new legislative action. A second referendum would still be required for any eventual accession treaty.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoNo 3–6% 96%
No 6–9% 8%
Yes 9–12% 7.5%
No 15%+ 4.0%
$16,366 Wol.
$16,366 Wol.
Aug 29, 2026
Yes 15%+
1%
Yes 12–15%
1%
Yes 9–12%
8%
Yes 6–9%
1%
Yes 3–6%
1%
Yes <3%
4%
No <3%
4%
No 3–6%
96%
No 6–9%
8%
No 9–12%
4%
No 12–15%
4%
No 15%+
4%
No 3–6% 96%
No 6–9% 8%
Yes 9–12% 7.5%
No 15%+ 4.0%
$16,366 Wol.
$16,366 Wol.
Aug 29, 2026
Yes 15%+
$772 Wol.
1%
Yes 12–15%
$323 Wol.
1%
Yes 9–12%
$2,594 Wol.
8%
Yes 6–9%
$315 Wol.
1%
Yes 3–6%
$1,117 Wol.
1%
Yes <3%
$347 Wol.
4%
No <3%
$3,316 Wol.
4%
No 3–6%
$1,197 Wol.
96%
No 6–9%
$289 Wol.
8%
No 9–12%
$335 Wol.
4%
No 12–15%
$237 Wol.
4%
No 15%+
$5,525 Wol.
4%
The Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum is scheduled to be held on August 29, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between "Yes" and "No" in the referendum.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by "Yes" and "No". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If "Yes" and "No" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest "No" margin bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If the results of the referendum are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Iceland’s August 29 referendum produced a narrow rejection of resuming EU accession negotiations, with the “No” side prevailing 52.5% to 47.5% according to broadcaster RÚV projections as counting concluded. Rural constituencies delivered decisive opposition driven by fishing rights and sovereignty concerns, while the capital Reykjavík backed renewed talks; this geographic split produced the slim margin that aligns with the market’s dominant pricing. Prime Minister Kristrún Frostadóttir’s centre-left government had advanced the vote earlier than its original 2027 timeline amid external pressures, yet the outcome leaves the long-suspended process closed for the foreseeable future absent new legislative action. A second referendum would still be required for any eventual accession treaty.
The Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum is scheduled to be held on August 29, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between "Yes" and "No" in the referendum.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by "Yes" and "No". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If "Yes" and "No" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest "No" margin bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If the results of the referendum are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between "Yes" and "No" in the referendum.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by "Yes" and "No". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If "Yes" and "No" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest "No" margin bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If the results of the referendum are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Rynek otwarty: Aug 27, 2026, 12:19 PM ET
Wolumen
$16,366Data zakończenia
Aug 29, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 27, 2026, 12:19 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...The Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum is scheduled to be held on August 29, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between "Yes" and "No" in the referendum.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by "Yes" and "No". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If "Yes" and "No" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest "No" margin bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If the results of the referendum are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Iceland’s August 29 referendum produced a narrow rejection of resuming EU accession negotiations, with the “No” side prevailing 52.5% to 47.5% according to broadcaster RÚV projections as counting concluded. Rural constituencies delivered decisive opposition driven by fishing rights and sovereignty concerns, while the capital Reykjavík backed renewed talks; this geographic split produced the slim margin that aligns with the market’s dominant pricing. Prime Minister Kristrún Frostadóttir’s centre-left government had advanced the vote earlier than its original 2027 timeline amid external pressures, yet the outcome leaves the long-suspended process closed for the foreseeable future absent new legislative action. A second referendum would still be required for any eventual accession treaty.
The Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum is scheduled to be held on August 29, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between "Yes" and "No" in the referendum.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by "Yes" and "No". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If "Yes" and "No" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest "No" margin bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If the results of the referendum are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between "Yes" and "No" in the referendum.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by "Yes" and "No". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If "Yes" and "No" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest "No" margin bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If the results of the referendum are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Wolumen
$16,366Data zakończenia
Aug 29, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 27, 2026, 12:19 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...Iceland’s August 29 referendum produced a narrow rejection of resuming EU accession negotiations, with the “No” side prevailing 52.5% to 47.5% according to broadcaster RÚV projections as counting concluded. Rural constituencies delivered decisive opposition driven by fishing rights and sovereignty concerns, while the capital Reykjavík backed renewed talks; this geographic split produced the slim margin that aligns with the market’s dominant pricing. Prime Minister Kristrún Frostadóttir’s centre-left government had advanced the vote earlier than its original 2027 timeline amid external pressures, yet the outcome leaves the long-suspended process closed for the foreseeable future absent new legislative action. A second referendum would still be required for any eventual accession treaty.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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