Global seismicity exhibits substantial week-to-week variability driven by tectonic stress release along major plate boundaries, with no dominant ongoing aftershock sequences or foreshock activity reported by the USGS as of early August 2026. Recent M6.3 events in the Pacific and a M5.5 near Alaska illustrate how isolated larger quakes and their aftershocks can elevate counts above baseline rates, while quiet periods in subduction zones and transform faults favor lower totals. Trader-implied odds reflect this Poisson-like unpredictability, with elevated probability on single-digit outcomes tempered by the potential for clustered activity in seismically active regions. Key variables include precise magnitude thresholds at 5.5, real-time USGS catalog completeness, and any rapid model updates on fault interactions ahead of the resolution window.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHow many 5.5 or above earthquakes August 10 - August 16?
How many 5.5 or above earthquakes August 10 - August 16?
≤6 26%
8 12%
7 12%
>13 12%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 9, 2026
≤6
26%
7
12%
8
12%
9
11%
10
10%
11
9%
12
8%
13
7%
>13
12%
≤6 26%
8 12%
7 12%
>13 12%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 9, 2026
≤6
$276 Wol.
26%
7
$127 Wol.
12%
8
$51 Wol.
12%
9
$65 Wol.
11%
10
$101 Wol.
10%
11
$50 Wol.
9%
12
$65 Wol.
8%
13
$20 Wol.
7%
>13
$88 Wol.
12%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 10, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Global seismicity exhibits substantial week-to-week variability driven by tectonic stress release along major plate boundaries, with no dominant ongoing aftershock sequences or foreshock activity reported by the USGS as of early August 2026. Recent M6.3 events in the Pacific and a M5.5 near Alaska illustrate how isolated larger quakes and their aftershocks can elevate counts above baseline rates, while quiet periods in subduction zones and transform faults favor lower totals. Trader-implied odds reflect this Poisson-like unpredictability, with elevated probability on single-digit outcomes tempered by the potential for clustered activity in seismically active regions. Key variables include precise magnitude thresholds at 5.5, real-time USGS catalog completeness, and any rapid model updates on fault interactions ahead of the resolution window.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 10, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Rynek otwarty: Aug 7, 2026, 10:55 AM ET
Wolumen
$843Data zakończenia
Aug 17, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 7, 2026, 10:55 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 10, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Global seismicity exhibits substantial week-to-week variability driven by tectonic stress release along major plate boundaries, with no dominant ongoing aftershock sequences or foreshock activity reported by the USGS as of early August 2026. Recent M6.3 events in the Pacific and a M5.5 near Alaska illustrate how isolated larger quakes and their aftershocks can elevate counts above baseline rates, while quiet periods in subduction zones and transform faults favor lower totals. Trader-implied odds reflect this Poisson-like unpredictability, with elevated probability on single-digit outcomes tempered by the potential for clustered activity in seismically active regions. Key variables include precise magnitude thresholds at 5.5, real-time USGS catalog completeness, and any rapid model updates on fault interactions ahead of the resolution window.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 10, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Wolumen
$843Data zakończenia
Aug 17, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 7, 2026, 10:55 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Global seismicity exhibits substantial week-to-week variability driven by tectonic stress release along major plate boundaries, with no dominant ongoing aftershock sequences or foreshock activity reported by the USGS as of early August 2026. Recent M6.3 events in the Pacific and a M5.5 near Alaska illustrate how isolated larger quakes and their aftershocks can elevate counts above baseline rates, while quiet periods in subduction zones and transform faults favor lower totals. Trader-implied odds reflect this Poisson-like unpredictability, with elevated probability on single-digit outcomes tempered by the potential for clustered activity in seismically active regions. Key variables include precise magnitude thresholds at 5.5, real-time USGS catalog completeness, and any rapid model updates on fault interactions ahead of the resolution window.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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