Recent Japan Meteorological Agency guidance and ensemble model consensus point to a peak temperature near 29°C in central Tokyo on August 11 under typical late-summer high pressure with light southerly flow and moderate humidity. This setup favors the leading 29°C outcome at 32.5% market-implied probability, while nearby 28°C and 30°C bins capture remaining spread from possible variations in cloud cover, urban heat effects, or slight steering changes. Historical August baselines of 30–32°C provide context, yet short-range uncertainty in diurnal heating and localized convection keeps probabilities closely clustered. Updated JMA model runs and observational data ahead of the date will refine the outlook before resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHighest temperature in Tokyo on August 11?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 11?
29°C 33%
28°C 24%
30°C 21%
27°C 10%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 11, 2026
23°C or below
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
1%
26°C
1%
27°C
10%
28°C
24%
29°C
33%
30°C
21%
31°C
6%
32°C
3%
33°C or higher
2%
29°C 33%
28°C 24%
30°C 21%
27°C 10%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 11, 2026
23°C or below
$632 Wol.
<1%
24°C
$76 Wol.
<1%
25°C
$39 Wol.
1%
26°C
$18 Wol.
1%
27°C
$11 Wol.
10%
28°C
$22 Wol.
24%
29°C
$147 Wol.
33%
30°C
$96 Wol.
21%
31°C
$203 Wol.
6%
32°C
$100 Wol.
3%
33°C or higher
$122 Wol.
2%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Japan Meteorological Agency guidance and ensemble model consensus point to a peak temperature near 29°C in central Tokyo on August 11 under typical late-summer high pressure with light southerly flow and moderate humidity. This setup favors the leading 29°C outcome at 32.5% market-implied probability, while nearby 28°C and 30°C bins capture remaining spread from possible variations in cloud cover, urban heat effects, or slight steering changes. Historical August baselines of 30–32°C provide context, yet short-range uncertainty in diurnal heating and localized convection keeps probabilities closely clustered. Updated JMA model runs and observational data ahead of the date will refine the outlook before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Aug 9, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Wolumen
$1,466Data zakończenia
Aug 11, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 9, 2026, 12:04 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Japan Meteorological Agency guidance and ensemble model consensus point to a peak temperature near 29°C in central Tokyo on August 11 under typical late-summer high pressure with light southerly flow and moderate humidity. This setup favors the leading 29°C outcome at 32.5% market-implied probability, while nearby 28°C and 30°C bins capture remaining spread from possible variations in cloud cover, urban heat effects, or slight steering changes. Historical August baselines of 30–32°C provide context, yet short-range uncertainty in diurnal heating and localized convection keeps probabilities closely clustered. Updated JMA model runs and observational data ahead of the date will refine the outlook before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Wolumen
$1,466Data zakończenia
Aug 11, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 9, 2026, 12:04 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Japan Meteorological Agency guidance and ensemble model consensus point to a peak temperature near 29°C in central Tokyo on August 11 under typical late-summer high pressure with light southerly flow and moderate humidity. This setup favors the leading 29°C outcome at 32.5% market-implied probability, while nearby 28°C and 30°C bins capture remaining spread from possible variations in cloud cover, urban heat effects, or slight steering changes. Historical August baselines of 30–32°C provide context, yet short-range uncertainty in diurnal heating and localized convection keeps probabilities closely clustered. Updated JMA model runs and observational data ahead of the date will refine the outlook before resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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