Traders are clustering around the 40-64 tweet range (53% implied probability) because Elon Musk’s recent daily output has settled into a consistent 13–21 posts per day, matching historical weekend patterns when no major product launches or political flare-ups dominate his feed. The adjacent 65-89 bucket (31%) captures the upside risk from sustained engagement with Grok updates and X platform features, as seen in the high-volume July 31–August 7 period. Lower ranges sit at single-digit odds due to the low likelihood of a sudden slowdown, while anything above 115 remains a long shot absent breaking news. With the August 10–12 window just days away and no scheduled catalysts on the calendar, market-implied odds reflect steady, platform-driven activity rather than an anticipated spike.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano40-64 49%
65-89 24%
<40 19%
90-114 7%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 12, 2026
<40
19%
40-64
49%
65-89
24%
90-114
7%
115-139
2%
140-164
1%
165-189
1%
190-214
1%
215-239
1%
240+
<1%
40-64 49%
65-89 24%
<40 19%
90-114 7%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 12, 2026
<40
$0 Wol.
19%
40-64
$0 Wol.
49%
65-89
$1,012 Wol.
24%
90-114
$40 Wol.
7%
115-139
$50 Wol.
2%
140-164
$552 Wol.
1%
165-189
$567 Wol.
1%
190-214
$99 Wol.
1%
215-239
$96 Wol.
1%
240+
$177 Wol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 10 12:00 PM ET to August 12, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.poly.havingsomuch.fun. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Traders are clustering around the 40-64 tweet range (53% implied probability) because Elon Musk’s recent daily output has settled into a consistent 13–21 posts per day, matching historical weekend patterns when no major product launches or political flare-ups dominate his feed. The adjacent 65-89 bucket (31%) captures the upside risk from sustained engagement with Grok updates and X platform features, as seen in the high-volume July 31–August 7 period. Lower ranges sit at single-digit odds due to the low likelihood of a sudden slowdown, while anything above 115 remains a long shot absent breaking news. With the August 10–12 window just days away and no scheduled catalysts on the calendar, market-implied odds reflect steady, platform-driven activity rather than an anticipated spike.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 10 12:00 PM ET to August 12, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.poly.havingsomuch.fun. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.poly.havingsomuch.fun. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Rynek otwarty: Aug 8, 2026, 12:07 PM ET
Wolumen
$2,592Data zakończenia
Aug 12, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 8, 2026, 12:07 PM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 10 12:00 PM ET to August 12, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.poly.havingsomuch.fun. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Traders are clustering around the 40-64 tweet range (53% implied probability) because Elon Musk’s recent daily output has settled into a consistent 13–21 posts per day, matching historical weekend patterns when no major product launches or political flare-ups dominate his feed. The adjacent 65-89 bucket (31%) captures the upside risk from sustained engagement with Grok updates and X platform features, as seen in the high-volume July 31–August 7 period. Lower ranges sit at single-digit odds due to the low likelihood of a sudden slowdown, while anything above 115 remains a long shot absent breaking news. With the August 10–12 window just days away and no scheduled catalysts on the calendar, market-implied odds reflect steady, platform-driven activity rather than an anticipated spike.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 10 12:00 PM ET to August 12, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.poly.havingsomuch.fun. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.poly.havingsomuch.fun. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Wolumen
$2,592Data zakończenia
Aug 12, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 8, 2026, 12:07 PM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders are clustering around the 40-64 tweet range (53% implied probability) because Elon Musk’s recent daily output has settled into a consistent 13–21 posts per day, matching historical weekend patterns when no major product launches or political flare-ups dominate his feed. The adjacent 65-89 bucket (31%) captures the upside risk from sustained engagement with Grok updates and X platform features, as seen in the high-volume July 31–August 7 period. Lower ranges sit at single-digit odds due to the low likelihood of a sudden slowdown, while anything above 115 remains a long shot absent breaking news. With the August 10–12 window just days away and no scheduled catalysts on the calendar, market-implied odds reflect steady, platform-driven activity rather than an anticipated spike.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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