Open seats in states such as Georgia, Ohio, and Alaska, combined with term-limited incumbents and competitive nominations, drive trader expectations for the narrowest 2026 gubernatorial margins. Recent primary results and polling averages show projected gaps under 5 points in these contests, reflecting swing-state dynamics, shifting voter turnout patterns, and candidate matchups without the typical incumbent buffer. Ratings from forecasters like Cook Political Report and Inside Elections classify several as toss-ups or leans, while broader midterm factors including economic conditions and national partisan trends sustain uncertainty. Late-cycle polling shifts, turnout surges in battleground areas, or unexpected candidate withdrawals could widen gaps and reorder the market's implied probabilities ahead of November 3.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoGeorgia 17.0%
Ohio 14.8%
Texas 11.9%
Alaska 11.8%
$16,241 Wol.
$16,241 Wol.
Nov 3, 2026
Georgia
17%
Ohio
15%
Texas
12%
Alaska
12%
Minnesota
10%
Florida
9%
Nevada
8%
Iowa
8%
Kansas
6%
Oregon
5%
Vermont
4%
Michigan
4%
Colorado
3%
New Hampshire
3%
New Mexico
3%
Arizona
2%
Wisconsin
2%
Maine
1%
Georgia 17.0%
Ohio 14.8%
Texas 11.9%
Alaska 11.8%
$16,241 Wol.
$16,241 Wol.
Nov 3, 2026
Georgia
$815 Wol.
17%
Ohio
$803 Wol.
15%
Texas
$1,703 Wol.
12%
Alaska
$269 Wol.
12%
Minnesota
$274 Wol.
10%
Florida
$335 Wol.
9%
Nevada
$2,939 Wol.
8%
Iowa
$1,797 Wol.
8%
Kansas
$3,184 Wol.
6%
Oregon
$336 Wol.
5%
Vermont
$186 Wol.
4%
Michigan
$339 Wol.
4%
Colorado
$253 Wol.
3%
New Hampshire
$539 Wol.
3%
New Mexico
$308 Wol.
3%
Arizona
$297 Wol.
2%
Wisconsin
$1,498 Wol.
2%
Maine
$365 Wol.
1%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all listed gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Open seats in states such as Georgia, Ohio, and Alaska, combined with term-limited incumbents and competitive nominations, drive trader expectations for the narrowest 2026 gubernatorial margins. Recent primary results and polling averages show projected gaps under 5 points in these contests, reflecting swing-state dynamics, shifting voter turnout patterns, and candidate matchups without the typical incumbent buffer. Ratings from forecasters like Cook Political Report and Inside Elections classify several as toss-ups or leans, while broader midterm factors including economic conditions and national partisan trends sustain uncertainty. Late-cycle polling shifts, turnout surges in battleground areas, or unexpected candidate withdrawals could widen gaps and reorder the market's implied probabilities ahead of November 3.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all listed gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the US gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all listed gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rynek otwarty: Jun 29, 2026, 4:01 PM ET
Wolumen
$16,241Data zakończenia
Nov 3, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jun 29, 2026, 4:01 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all listed gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Open seats in states such as Georgia, Ohio, and Alaska, combined with term-limited incumbents and competitive nominations, drive trader expectations for the narrowest 2026 gubernatorial margins. Recent primary results and polling averages show projected gaps under 5 points in these contests, reflecting swing-state dynamics, shifting voter turnout patterns, and candidate matchups without the typical incumbent buffer. Ratings from forecasters like Cook Political Report and Inside Elections classify several as toss-ups or leans, while broader midterm factors including economic conditions and national partisan trends sustain uncertainty. Late-cycle polling shifts, turnout surges in battleground areas, or unexpected candidate withdrawals could widen gaps and reorder the market's implied probabilities ahead of November 3.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all listed gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the US gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all listed gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Wolumen
$16,241Data zakończenia
Nov 3, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jun 29, 2026, 4:01 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...Open seats in states such as Georgia, Ohio, and Alaska, combined with term-limited incumbents and competitive nominations, drive trader expectations for the narrowest 2026 gubernatorial margins. Recent primary results and polling averages show projected gaps under 5 points in these contests, reflecting swing-state dynamics, shifting voter turnout patterns, and candidate matchups without the typical incumbent buffer. Ratings from forecasters like Cook Political Report and Inside Elections classify several as toss-ups or leans, while broader midterm factors including economic conditions and national partisan trends sustain uncertainty. Late-cycle polling shifts, turnout surges in battleground areas, or unexpected candidate withdrawals could widen gaps and reorder the market's implied probabilities ahead of November 3.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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