Michigan stands out among 2026 Senate toss-ups because it features an open Democratic-held seat in a state Donald Trump carried by less than two points in 2024, with recent polling showing Democratic nominee Abdul El-Sayed and Republican Mike Rogers locked in a near tie after El-Sayed’s narrow August primary victory over Haley Stevens. Forecasters including the Cook Political Report rate the contest a toss-up, underscoring its centrality to Senate control amid broader Democratic efforts to defend the seat while targeting Republican-held races. Maine remains competitive due to Susan Collins’s moderate profile in a state Kamala Harris won, though Democratic nominee changes have introduced uncertainty. Alaska’s race between Dan Sullivan and Mary Peltola has tightened after Peltola’s strong primary performance under ranked-choice voting. Texas and Iowa moved into toss-up territory later in the cycle per Cook updates, while Ohio polling shows Sherrod Brown competitive against Jon Husted but in a more Republican-leaning environment. These dynamics explain Michigan’s leading market position among traders assessing the narrowest paths to Democratic gains.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoDems' best tossup Senate race?
Dems' best tossup Senate race?
Michigan 52%
Maine 20%
Alaska 19%
Texas 8%
NOWE
NOWE
Nov 3, 2026
Michigan
52%
Maine
20%
Alaska
19%
Texas
8%
Ohio
4%
Iowa
4%
Michigan 52%
Maine 20%
Alaska 19%
Texas 8%
NOWE
NOWE
Nov 3, 2026
Michigan
$2,547 Wol.
52%
Maine
$195 Wol.
20%
Alaska
$201 Wol.
19%
Texas
$109 Wol.
8%
Ohio
$273 Wol.
4%
Iowa
$109 Wol.
4%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the state, out of those listed, in which the Democratic Senate candidate earns the highest vote share percentage in the midterm election.
Vote share percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for each candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant vote share will be that of the last-reported round containing a Democrat, and only non-exhausted ballots will be considered to be valid in that round. In the event that such a round contains multiple Democrats, this market will resolve in favor of the Democrat with the higher vote share.
If two vote shares are identical, this market will rank the tied states in alphabetical order.
In the event that the relevant vote share for a state cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state will not be considered for purposes of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Michigan stands out among 2026 Senate toss-ups because it features an open Democratic-held seat in a state Donald Trump carried by less than two points in 2024, with recent polling showing Democratic nominee Abdul El-Sayed and Republican Mike Rogers locked in a near tie after El-Sayed’s narrow August primary victory over Haley Stevens. Forecasters including the Cook Political Report rate the contest a toss-up, underscoring its centrality to Senate control amid broader Democratic efforts to defend the seat while targeting Republican-held races. Maine remains competitive due to Susan Collins’s moderate profile in a state Kamala Harris won, though Democratic nominee changes have introduced uncertainty. Alaska’s race between Dan Sullivan and Mary Peltola has tightened after Peltola’s strong primary performance under ranked-choice voting. Texas and Iowa moved into toss-up territory later in the cycle per Cook updates, while Ohio polling shows Sherrod Brown competitive against Jon Husted but in a more Republican-leaning environment. These dynamics explain Michigan’s leading market position among traders assessing the narrowest paths to Democratic gains.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the state, out of those listed, in which the Democratic Senate candidate earns the highest vote share percentage in the midterm election.
Vote share percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for each candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant vote share will be that of the last-reported round containing a Democrat, and only non-exhausted ballots will be considered to be valid in that round. In the event that such a round contains multiple Democrats, this market will resolve in favor of the Democrat with the higher vote share.
If two vote shares are identical, this market will rank the tied states in alphabetical order.
In the event that the relevant vote share for a state cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state will not be considered for purposes of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the state, out of those listed, in which the Democratic Senate candidate earns the highest vote share percentage in the midterm election.
Vote share percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for each candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant vote share will be that of the last-reported round containing a Democrat, and only non-exhausted ballots will be considered to be valid in that round. In the event that such a round contains multiple Democrats, this market will resolve in favor of the Democrat with the higher vote share.
If two vote shares are identical, this market will rank the tied states in alphabetical order.
In the event that the relevant vote share for a state cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state will not be considered for purposes of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rynek otwarty: Sep 2, 2026, 1:44 PM ET
Wolumen
$3,435Data zakończenia
Nov 3, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 2, 2026, 1:44 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the state, out of those listed, in which the Democratic Senate candidate earns the highest vote share percentage in the midterm election.
Vote share percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for each candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant vote share will be that of the last-reported round containing a Democrat, and only non-exhausted ballots will be considered to be valid in that round. In the event that such a round contains multiple Democrats, this market will resolve in favor of the Democrat with the higher vote share.
If two vote shares are identical, this market will rank the tied states in alphabetical order.
In the event that the relevant vote share for a state cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state will not be considered for purposes of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Michigan stands out among 2026 Senate toss-ups because it features an open Democratic-held seat in a state Donald Trump carried by less than two points in 2024, with recent polling showing Democratic nominee Abdul El-Sayed and Republican Mike Rogers locked in a near tie after El-Sayed’s narrow August primary victory over Haley Stevens. Forecasters including the Cook Political Report rate the contest a toss-up, underscoring its centrality to Senate control amid broader Democratic efforts to defend the seat while targeting Republican-held races. Maine remains competitive due to Susan Collins’s moderate profile in a state Kamala Harris won, though Democratic nominee changes have introduced uncertainty. Alaska’s race between Dan Sullivan and Mary Peltola has tightened after Peltola’s strong primary performance under ranked-choice voting. Texas and Iowa moved into toss-up territory later in the cycle per Cook updates, while Ohio polling shows Sherrod Brown competitive against Jon Husted but in a more Republican-leaning environment. These dynamics explain Michigan’s leading market position among traders assessing the narrowest paths to Democratic gains.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the state, out of those listed, in which the Democratic Senate candidate earns the highest vote share percentage in the midterm election.
Vote share percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for each candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant vote share will be that of the last-reported round containing a Democrat, and only non-exhausted ballots will be considered to be valid in that round. In the event that such a round contains multiple Democrats, this market will resolve in favor of the Democrat with the higher vote share.
If two vote shares are identical, this market will rank the tied states in alphabetical order.
In the event that the relevant vote share for a state cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state will not be considered for purposes of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the state, out of those listed, in which the Democratic Senate candidate earns the highest vote share percentage in the midterm election.
Vote share percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for each candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant vote share will be that of the last-reported round containing a Democrat, and only non-exhausted ballots will be considered to be valid in that round. In the event that such a round contains multiple Democrats, this market will resolve in favor of the Democrat with the higher vote share.
If two vote shares are identical, this market will rank the tied states in alphabetical order.
In the event that the relevant vote share for a state cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state will not be considered for purposes of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Wolumen
$3,435Data zakończenia
Nov 3, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 2, 2026, 1:44 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...Michigan stands out among 2026 Senate toss-ups because it features an open Democratic-held seat in a state Donald Trump carried by less than two points in 2024, with recent polling showing Democratic nominee Abdul El-Sayed and Republican Mike Rogers locked in a near tie after El-Sayed’s narrow August primary victory over Haley Stevens. Forecasters including the Cook Political Report rate the contest a toss-up, underscoring its centrality to Senate control amid broader Democratic efforts to defend the seat while targeting Republican-held races. Maine remains competitive due to Susan Collins’s moderate profile in a state Kamala Harris won, though Democratic nominee changes have introduced uncertainty. Alaska’s race between Dan Sullivan and Mary Peltola has tightened after Peltola’s strong primary performance under ranked-choice voting. Texas and Iowa moved into toss-up territory later in the cycle per Cook updates, while Ohio polling shows Sherrod Brown competitive against Jon Husted but in a more Republican-leaning environment. These dynamics explain Michigan’s leading market position among traders assessing the narrowest paths to Democratic gains.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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