This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's Claude 5 model is made available to the general public by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," Claude 5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public.
Claude 5 refers to a product explicitly named Claude 5 (e.g. Claude 5.0 would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to Claude 4, similar to the progression from Claude 2 to Claude 3. Products labeled as Claude 4.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's Claude 5 model is made available to the general public by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," Claude 5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public.
Claude 5 refers to a product explicitly named Claude 5 (e.g. Claude 5.0 would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to Claude 4, similar to the progression from Claude 2 to Claude 3. Products labeled as Claude 4.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's Claude 5 model is made available to the general public by February 6, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," Claude 5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public.
Claude 5 refers to a product explicitly named Claude 5 (e.g. Claude 5.0 would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to Claude 4, similar to the progression from Claude 2 to Claude 3. Products labeled as Claude 4.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's Claude 5 model is made available to the general public by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," Claude 5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public.
Claude 5 refers to a product explicitly named Claude 5 (e.g. Claude 5.0 would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to Claude 4, similar to the progression from Claude 2 to Claude 3. Products labeled as Claude 4.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's Claude 5 model is made available to the general public by February 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," Claude 5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public.
Claude 5 refers to a product explicitly named Claude 5 (e.g. Claude 5.0 would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to Claude 4, similar to the progression from Claude 2 to Claude 3. Products labeled as Claude 4.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's Claude 5 model is made available to the general public by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," Claude 5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public.
Claude 5 refers to a product explicitly named Claude 5 (e.g. Claude 5.0 would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to Claude 4, similar to the progression from Claude 2 to Claude 3. Products labeled as Claude 4.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's Claude 5 model is made available to the general public by March 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," Claude 5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public.
Claude 5 refers to a product explicitly named Claude 5 (e.g. Claude 5.0 would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to Claude 4, similar to the progression from Claude 2 to Claude 3. Products labeled as Claude 4.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's Claude 5 model is made available to the general public by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," Claude 5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public.
Claude 5 refers to a product explicitly named Claude 5 (e.g. Claude 5.0 would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to Claude 4, similar to the progression from Claude 2 to Claude 3. Products labeled as Claude 4.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's Claude 5 model is made available to the general public by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," Claude 5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public.
Claude 5 refers to a product explicitly named Claude 5 (e.g. Claude 5.0 would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to Claude 4, similar to the progression from Claude 2 to Claude 3. Products labeled as Claude 4.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's Claude 5 model is made available to the general public by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," Claude 5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public.
Claude 5 refers to a product explicitly named Claude 5 (e.g. Claude 5.0 would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to Claude 4, similar to the progression from Claude 2 to Claude 3. Products labeled as Claude 4.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Anthropic has maintained a rapid release cadence with incremental Claude 4.x models, most recently shipping Opus 4.8 on May 28, 2026, emphasizing gains in reliability, tool use, and agentic performance such as computer-use benchmarks. No model officially branded Claude 5 has launched, though leaks earlier in 2026 referenced an internal “Fennec” project tied to Sonnet-level capabilities and lower inference costs. Traders are watching for a generational leap—likely in the Q2–Q3 2026 window—driven by competitive pressure from other frontier labs, ongoing focus on safety and agent orchestration features, and historical patterns where major version jumps follow sustained 4.x iterations. Resolution hinges on Anthropic’s official naming and public availability announcements.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's Claude 5 model is made available to the general public by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," Claude 5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public.
Claude 5 refers to a product explicitly named Claude 5 (e.g. Claude 5.0 would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to Claude 4, similar to the progression from Claude 2 to Claude 3. Products labeled as Claude 4.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's Claude 5 model is made available to the general public by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," Claude 5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public.
Claude 5 refers to a product explicitly named Claude 5 (e.g. Claude 5.0 would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to Claude 4, similar to the progression from Claude 2 to Claude 3. Products labeled as Claude 4.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Anthropic has maintained a rapid release cadence with incremental Claude 4.x models, most recently shipping Opus 4.8 on May 28, 2026, emphasizing gains in reliability, tool use, and agentic performance such as computer-use benchmarks. No model officially branded Claude 5 has launched, though leaks earlier in 2026 referenced an internal “Fennec” project tied to Sonnet-level capabilities and lower inference costs. Traders are watching for a generational leap—likely in the Q2–Q3 2026 window—driven by competitive pressure from other frontier labs, ongoing focus on safety and agent orchestration features, and historical patterns where major version jumps follow sustained 4.x iterations. Resolution hinges on Anthropic’s official naming and public availability announcements.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
Jun 5 2026
Anthropic's Claude platform suffers service disruption raising concerns
September 30, 2026 jumps to 69%7%
A significant service disruption affected multiple Claude models and services, raising concerns about infrastructure resilience and potential data exposure. This incident did not indicate a Claude 5 public release but may have influenced market sentiment negatively.
Jun 2 2026
Anthropic expands Project Glasswing and confirms Mythos-class models will roll out publicly soon
Anthropic announced expansion of its cybersecurity Project Glasswing and reiterated that Mythos-class models, which are more powerful than current public models, will be made available to all customers in a matter of weeks. This indicates imminent public access to advanced models but no explicit Claude 5 branding yet.
Jun 1 2026
Anthropic confidentially files for IPO, signaling corporate growth
Anthropic filed confidential paperwork with the SEC for an initial public offering, indicating growth and increased funding. While significant for the company, this event did not directly affect the Claude 5 public release timeline or market resolution.
Jun 1 2026
Anthropic confidentially files for IPO, signaling growth and future plans
Anthropic filed paperwork for an IPO, highlighting company growth and investor confidence but did not announce Claude 5 release, maintaining market uncertainty about the model's public availability.
Jun 1 2026
Anthropic files confidential IPO paperwork with SEC
September 30, 2026 drops to 62%6%
Anthropic filed confidential paperwork for an IPO, signaling corporate growth and funding but unrelated directly to Claude 5 public release timing.
Jun 1 2026
Anthropic files confidential IPO paperwork with US regulators
Anthropic filed confidential paperwork for an IPO, indicating strong business growth and market confidence in the company, but this event does not directly confirm Claude 5 public release.
May 28 2026
Anthropic releases Claude Opus 4.8 with improved capabilities
Anthropic launched Claude Opus 4.8, an upgrade over Opus 4.7 with better reasoning, coding, and agentic workflows. The release included a commitment to roll out Mythos-class models to all customers in the coming weeks, but no explicit Claude 5 branding or public release occurred yet.
May 28 2026
Anthropic announces plans to release Mythos-class models to all customers in coming weeks
September 30, 2026 jumps to 70%5%
Anthropic confirmed that Mythos-class models, including the advanced capabilities previewed in Claude Mythos, will be made available to all customers soon, though no exact date was given. This announcement increased market optimism about a near-term public release.
May 28 2026
Anthropic Releases Claude Opus 4.8 with Dynamic Workflows
June 30, 2026 dips to 16%2%
Anthropic released Claude Opus 4.8, improving speed and capability over Opus 4.7 but still without a public Claude 5 release. This led to a market reassessment and price declines for the June 30, 2026 outcome as the deadline neared.
May 24 2026
Anthropic reports over 10,000 critical vulnerabilities found using Mythos Preview
September 30, 2026 dips to 64%4%
Anthropic's Project Glasswing revealed over 10,000 critical vulnerabilities found with Mythos Preview, highlighting the model's power but also the security risks delaying its public release.
May 22 2026
Anthropic expands Project Glasswing and Claude Mythos Preview access
September 30, 2026 jumps to 69%10%
Anthropic extended access to Claude Mythos Preview to about 150 organizations and launched Claude Security in public beta for enterprise customers. The company reiterated that Mythos-class models would be made publicly available only after further safety work, delaying any Claude 5 public release.
May 22 2026
Anthropic launches Claude Security public beta for Enterprise customers
September 30, 2026 jumps to 68%11%
Anthropic launched Claude Security in public beta for Enterprise customers, powered by Claude Opus 4.7, while Mythos Preview remains restricted. This shows progress in advanced model deployment but no public Claude 5 release yet.
May 22 2026
Anthropic reports over 10,000 critical vulnerabilities found using Claude Mythos Preview
September 30, 2026 jumps to 72%13%
Anthropic's Project Glasswing published results showing extensive vulnerability detection using Claude Mythos Preview, reinforcing the model's advanced capabilities but also highlighting the need for further safeguards before public release. Market reacted with cautious optimism.
May 6 2026
Anthropic releases Claude Opus 4.7 and launches Claude Design product
September 30, 2026 surges to 94%43%
Anthropic released Claude Opus 4.7 and introduced Claude Design, enhancing collaboration features but did not announce Claude 5. This release caused a spike in market confidence about imminent new models but no confirmation of Claude 5 availability.
May 6 2026
Claude Opus 4.8 released with Mythos-level alignment and speed improvements
September 30, 2026 surges to 94%43%
Anthropic released Claude Opus 4.8, a faster and more aligned model with performance comparable to the restricted Claude Mythos Preview, signaling readiness for broader rollout of advanced AI capabilities. This boosted market confidence significantly.
May 4 2026
Anthropic launches Claude Security public beta for Enterprise customers
September 30, 2026 jumps to 70%7%
Anthropic launched Claude Security, a public beta product using Opus 4.7 for code vulnerability scanning, signaling focus on specialized models rather than a public Claude 5 release.
Apr 30 2026
Anthropic launches Claude Security public beta for Enterprise customers
June 30, 2026 jumps to 28%9%
Anthropic moved Claude Security, powered by Claude Opus 4.7, into public beta for Enterprise customers, demonstrating progress in deploying advanced AI capabilities but not a full public release of Claude 5. This event helped stabilize market expectations.
Apr 17 2026
Anthropic launches Claude Opus 4.7 and Claude Design product
September 30, 2026 surges to 94%43%
Anthropic released Claude Opus 4.7 and a new product, Claude Design, enhancing capabilities but not announcing Claude 5. This reinforced the view that Claude 5 was not imminent.
Apr 16 2026
Anthropic launches Claude Opus 4.7, latest model in Claude 4 family
September 30, 2026 surges to 94%43%
Anthropic released Claude Opus 4.7, an improved model within the Claude 4 generation, available across all Claude products and major cloud platforms. This update indicated continued development within the Claude 4 line rather than a new Claude 5 release, influencing market sentiment towards a delayed Claude 5 launch.
Apr 16 2026
Anthropic releases Claude Opus 4.7, the most capable public model to date
September 30, 2026 surges to 94%43%
Anthropic launched Claude Opus 4.7 with improvements in software engineering, vision, and long-running agentic tasks. It is less capable than Claude Mythos Preview but publicly available, reinforcing the pattern of iterative Claude 4 updates rather than a new Claude 5 release.
Apr 7 2026
Anthropic announces Project Glasswing and Claude Mythos Preview
September 30, 2026 surges to 72%22%
Anthropic revealed Project Glasswing and a powerful internal model called Claude Mythos Preview, limited to select partners for cybersecurity applications. The announcement confirmed the existence of a more advanced model beyond Opus 4.7 but clarified it was not yet publicly released, impacting market expectations for Claude 5.
Apr 7 2026
Anthropic announces Project Glasswing and Claude Mythos Preview
June 30, 2026 plunges to 22%57%
Anthropic revealed Claude Mythos Preview, a more powerful model than Opus 4.7, restricted to 12 launch partners and about 40 critical infrastructure organizations due to cybersecurity risks. This limited access signaled that a public Claude 5 release was not imminent, impacting market confidence.
Apr 7 2026
Anthropic announces Claude Mythos Preview with restricted access
June 30, 2026 plunges to 34%36%
Anthropic announced the Claude Mythos Preview model, a more powerful successor to Opus 4.7, but access is limited to select partners due to cybersecurity risks, indicating no broad public release yet.
Mar 31 2026
Anthropic ships Claude Opus 4.6 and Sonnet 4.6 but no official Claude 5 release
June 30, 2026 jumps to 56%6%
Anthropic publicly released Claude Opus 4.6 and Sonnet 4.6 models but has not announced any model officially named Claude 5, maintaining uncertainty about the next major release. This contributed to initial market price fluctuations as anticipation for Claude 5 remained speculative.
Mar 27 2026
No public Claude 5 release announced; Anthropic shipping Claude 4.6 models
As of late March 2026, Anthropic had publicly released Claude Opus 4.6 and Sonnet 4.6 but had not announced any model named Claude 5. This absence of a public release contributed to market uncertainty about Claude 5 availability by the end of 2025.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's Claude 5 model is made available to the general public by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," Claude 5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public.
Claude 5 refers to a product explicitly named Claude 5 (e.g. Claude 5.0 would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to Claude 4, similar to the progression from Claude 2 to Claude 3. Products labeled as Claude 4.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's Claude 5 model is made available to the general public by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," Claude 5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public.
Claude 5 refers to a product explicitly named Claude 5 (e.g. Claude 5.0 would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to Claude 4, similar to the progression from Claude 2 to Claude 3. Products labeled as Claude 4.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's Claude 5 model is made available to the general public by February 6, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," Claude 5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public.
Claude 5 refers to a product explicitly named Claude 5 (e.g. Claude 5.0 would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to Claude 4, similar to the progression from Claude 2 to Claude 3. Products labeled as Claude 4.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's Claude 5 model is made available to the general public by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," Claude 5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public.
Claude 5 refers to a product explicitly named Claude 5 (e.g. Claude 5.0 would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to Claude 4, similar to the progression from Claude 2 to Claude 3. Products labeled as Claude 4.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's Claude 5 model is made available to the general public by February 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," Claude 5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public.
Claude 5 refers to a product explicitly named Claude 5 (e.g. Claude 5.0 would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to Claude 4, similar to the progression from Claude 2 to Claude 3. Products labeled as Claude 4.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's Claude 5 model is made available to the general public by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," Claude 5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public.
Claude 5 refers to a product explicitly named Claude 5 (e.g. Claude 5.0 would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to Claude 4, similar to the progression from Claude 2 to Claude 3. Products labeled as Claude 4.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's Claude 5 model is made available to the general public by March 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," Claude 5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public.
Claude 5 refers to a product explicitly named Claude 5 (e.g. Claude 5.0 would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to Claude 4, similar to the progression from Claude 2 to Claude 3. Products labeled as Claude 4.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's Claude 5 model is made available to the general public by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," Claude 5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public.
Claude 5 refers to a product explicitly named Claude 5 (e.g. Claude 5.0 would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to Claude 4, similar to the progression from Claude 2 to Claude 3. Products labeled as Claude 4.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's Claude 5 model is made available to the general public by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," Claude 5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public.
Claude 5 refers to a product explicitly named Claude 5 (e.g. Claude 5.0 would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to Claude 4, similar to the progression from Claude 2 to Claude 3. Products labeled as Claude 4.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's Claude 5 model is made available to the general public by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," Claude 5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public.
Claude 5 refers to a product explicitly named Claude 5 (e.g. Claude 5.0 would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to Claude 4, similar to the progression from Claude 2 to Claude 3. Products labeled as Claude 4.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Anthropic has maintained a rapid release cadence with incremental Claude 4.x models, most recently shipping Opus 4.8 on May 28, 2026, emphasizing gains in reliability, tool use, and agentic performance such as computer-use benchmarks. No model officially branded Claude 5 has launched, though leaks earlier in 2026 referenced an internal “Fennec” project tied to Sonnet-level capabilities and lower inference costs. Traders are watching for a generational leap—likely in the Q2–Q3 2026 window—driven by competitive pressure from other frontier labs, ongoing focus on safety and agent orchestration features, and historical patterns where major version jumps follow sustained 4.x iterations. Resolution hinges on Anthropic’s official naming and public availability announcements.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's Claude 5 model is made available to the general public by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," Claude 5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public.
Claude 5 refers to a product explicitly named Claude 5 (e.g. Claude 5.0 would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to Claude 4, similar to the progression from Claude 2 to Claude 3. Products labeled as Claude 4.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's Claude 5 model is made available to the general public by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," Claude 5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public.
Claude 5 refers to a product explicitly named Claude 5 (e.g. Claude 5.0 would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to Claude 4, similar to the progression from Claude 2 to Claude 3. Products labeled as Claude 4.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Anthropic has maintained a rapid release cadence with incremental Claude 4.x models, most recently shipping Opus 4.8 on May 28, 2026, emphasizing gains in reliability, tool use, and agentic performance such as computer-use benchmarks. No model officially branded Claude 5 has launched, though leaks earlier in 2026 referenced an internal “Fennec” project tied to Sonnet-level capabilities and lower inference costs. Traders are watching for a generational leap—likely in the Q2–Q3 2026 window—driven by competitive pressure from other frontier labs, ongoing focus on safety and agent orchestration features, and historical patterns where major version jumps follow sustained 4.x iterations. Resolution hinges on Anthropic’s official naming and public availability announcements.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
Jun 5 2026
Anthropic's Claude platform suffers service disruption raising concerns
September 30, 2026 jumps to 69%7%
A significant service disruption affected multiple Claude models and services, raising concerns about infrastructure resilience and potential data exposure. This incident did not indicate a Claude 5 public release but may have influenced market sentiment negatively.
Jun 2 2026
Anthropic expands Project Glasswing and confirms Mythos-class models will roll out publicly soon
Anthropic announced expansion of its cybersecurity Project Glasswing and reiterated that Mythos-class models, which are more powerful than current public models, will be made available to all customers in a matter of weeks. This indicates imminent public access to advanced models but no explicit Claude 5 branding yet.
Jun 1 2026
Anthropic confidentially files for IPO, signaling corporate growth
Anthropic filed confidential paperwork with the SEC for an initial public offering, indicating growth and increased funding. While significant for the company, this event did not directly affect the Claude 5 public release timeline or market resolution.
Jun 1 2026
Anthropic confidentially files for IPO, signaling growth and future plans
Anthropic filed paperwork for an IPO, highlighting company growth and investor confidence but did not announce Claude 5 release, maintaining market uncertainty about the model's public availability.
Jun 1 2026
Anthropic files confidential IPO paperwork with SEC
September 30, 2026 drops to 62%6%
Anthropic filed confidential paperwork for an IPO, signaling corporate growth and funding but unrelated directly to Claude 5 public release timing.
Jun 1 2026
Anthropic files confidential IPO paperwork with US regulators
Anthropic filed confidential paperwork for an IPO, indicating strong business growth and market confidence in the company, but this event does not directly confirm Claude 5 public release.
May 28 2026
Anthropic releases Claude Opus 4.8 with improved capabilities
Anthropic launched Claude Opus 4.8, an upgrade over Opus 4.7 with better reasoning, coding, and agentic workflows. The release included a commitment to roll out Mythos-class models to all customers in the coming weeks, but no explicit Claude 5 branding or public release occurred yet.
May 28 2026
Anthropic announces plans to release Mythos-class models to all customers in coming weeks
September 30, 2026 jumps to 70%5%
Anthropic confirmed that Mythos-class models, including the advanced capabilities previewed in Claude Mythos, will be made available to all customers soon, though no exact date was given. This announcement increased market optimism about a near-term public release.
May 28 2026
Anthropic Releases Claude Opus 4.8 with Dynamic Workflows
June 30, 2026 dips to 16%2%
Anthropic released Claude Opus 4.8, improving speed and capability over Opus 4.7 but still without a public Claude 5 release. This led to a market reassessment and price declines for the June 30, 2026 outcome as the deadline neared.
May 24 2026
Anthropic reports over 10,000 critical vulnerabilities found using Mythos Preview
September 30, 2026 dips to 64%4%
Anthropic's Project Glasswing revealed over 10,000 critical vulnerabilities found with Mythos Preview, highlighting the model's power but also the security risks delaying its public release.
May 22 2026
Anthropic expands Project Glasswing and Claude Mythos Preview access
September 30, 2026 jumps to 69%10%
Anthropic extended access to Claude Mythos Preview to about 150 organizations and launched Claude Security in public beta for enterprise customers. The company reiterated that Mythos-class models would be made publicly available only after further safety work, delaying any Claude 5 public release.
May 22 2026
Anthropic launches Claude Security public beta for Enterprise customers
September 30, 2026 jumps to 68%11%
Anthropic launched Claude Security in public beta for Enterprise customers, powered by Claude Opus 4.7, while Mythos Preview remains restricted. This shows progress in advanced model deployment but no public Claude 5 release yet.
May 22 2026
Anthropic reports over 10,000 critical vulnerabilities found using Claude Mythos Preview
September 30, 2026 jumps to 72%13%
Anthropic's Project Glasswing published results showing extensive vulnerability detection using Claude Mythos Preview, reinforcing the model's advanced capabilities but also highlighting the need for further safeguards before public release. Market reacted with cautious optimism.
May 6 2026
Anthropic releases Claude Opus 4.7 and launches Claude Design product
September 30, 2026 surges to 94%43%
Anthropic released Claude Opus 4.7 and introduced Claude Design, enhancing collaboration features but did not announce Claude 5. This release caused a spike in market confidence about imminent new models but no confirmation of Claude 5 availability.
May 6 2026
Claude Opus 4.8 released with Mythos-level alignment and speed improvements
September 30, 2026 surges to 94%43%
Anthropic released Claude Opus 4.8, a faster and more aligned model with performance comparable to the restricted Claude Mythos Preview, signaling readiness for broader rollout of advanced AI capabilities. This boosted market confidence significantly.
May 4 2026
Anthropic launches Claude Security public beta for Enterprise customers
September 30, 2026 jumps to 70%7%
Anthropic launched Claude Security, a public beta product using Opus 4.7 for code vulnerability scanning, signaling focus on specialized models rather than a public Claude 5 release.
Apr 30 2026
Anthropic launches Claude Security public beta for Enterprise customers
June 30, 2026 jumps to 28%9%
Anthropic moved Claude Security, powered by Claude Opus 4.7, into public beta for Enterprise customers, demonstrating progress in deploying advanced AI capabilities but not a full public release of Claude 5. This event helped stabilize market expectations.
Apr 17 2026
Anthropic launches Claude Opus 4.7 and Claude Design product
September 30, 2026 surges to 94%43%
Anthropic released Claude Opus 4.7 and a new product, Claude Design, enhancing capabilities but not announcing Claude 5. This reinforced the view that Claude 5 was not imminent.
Apr 16 2026
Anthropic launches Claude Opus 4.7, latest model in Claude 4 family
September 30, 2026 surges to 94%43%
Anthropic released Claude Opus 4.7, an improved model within the Claude 4 generation, available across all Claude products and major cloud platforms. This update indicated continued development within the Claude 4 line rather than a new Claude 5 release, influencing market sentiment towards a delayed Claude 5 launch.
Apr 16 2026
Anthropic releases Claude Opus 4.7, the most capable public model to date
September 30, 2026 surges to 94%43%
Anthropic launched Claude Opus 4.7 with improvements in software engineering, vision, and long-running agentic tasks. It is less capable than Claude Mythos Preview but publicly available, reinforcing the pattern of iterative Claude 4 updates rather than a new Claude 5 release.
Apr 7 2026
Anthropic announces Project Glasswing and Claude Mythos Preview
September 30, 2026 surges to 72%22%
Anthropic revealed Project Glasswing and a powerful internal model called Claude Mythos Preview, limited to select partners for cybersecurity applications. The announcement confirmed the existence of a more advanced model beyond Opus 4.7 but clarified it was not yet publicly released, impacting market expectations for Claude 5.
Apr 7 2026
Anthropic announces Project Glasswing and Claude Mythos Preview
June 30, 2026 plunges to 22%57%
Anthropic revealed Claude Mythos Preview, a more powerful model than Opus 4.7, restricted to 12 launch partners and about 40 critical infrastructure organizations due to cybersecurity risks. This limited access signaled that a public Claude 5 release was not imminent, impacting market confidence.
Apr 7 2026
Anthropic announces Claude Mythos Preview with restricted access
June 30, 2026 plunges to 34%36%
Anthropic announced the Claude Mythos Preview model, a more powerful successor to Opus 4.7, but access is limited to select partners due to cybersecurity risks, indicating no broad public release yet.
Mar 31 2026
Anthropic ships Claude Opus 4.6 and Sonnet 4.6 but no official Claude 5 release
June 30, 2026 jumps to 56%6%
Anthropic publicly released Claude Opus 4.6 and Sonnet 4.6 models but has not announced any model officially named Claude 5, maintaining uncertainty about the next major release. This contributed to initial market price fluctuations as anticipation for Claude 5 remained speculative.
Mar 27 2026
No public Claude 5 release announced; Anthropic shipping Claude 4.6 models
As of late March 2026, Anthropic had publicly released Claude Opus 4.6 and Sonnet 4.6 but had not announced any model named Claude 5. This absence of a public release contributed to market uncertainty about Claude 5 availability by the end of 2025.
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"Claude 5 wydany przez…?" to rynek prognoz na Polymarket z 10 możliwymi wynikami, gdzie traderzy kupują i sprzedają udziały na podstawie tego, co ich zdaniem się wydarzy. Obecny wiodący wynik to "September 30, 2026" z 69%, za nim "30 czerwca 2026" z 36%. Ceny odzwierciedlają zbiorowe prawdopodobieństwa w czasie rzeczywistym. Na przykład udział wyceniony na 69¢ implikuje, że rynek zbiorowo przypisuje 69% szansy na ten wynik. Te kursy zmieniają się ciągle, gdy traderzy reagują na nowe informacje. Udziały w poprawnym wyniku można wymienić na $1 za sztukę po rozstrzygnięciu rynku.
Na dzień dzisiejszy "Claude 5 wydany przez…?" wygenerował $4.1 million łącznego wolumenu od uruchomienia rynku Aug 7, 2025. Ten poziom aktywności handlowej odzwierciedla silne zaangażowanie społeczności Polymarket i pomaga zapewnić, że bieżące kursy są informowane przez głęboką pulę uczestników rynku. Możesz śledzić ruchy cen na żywo i handlować na dowolny wynik bezpośrednio na tej stronie.
Aby handlować na "Claude 5 wydany przez…?", przeglądaj 10 dostępnych wyników na tej stronie. Każdy wynik wyświetla bieżącą cenę reprezentującą implikowane prawdopodobieństwo rynku. Aby zająć pozycję, wybierz wynik, który uważasz za najbardziej prawdopodobny, wybierz "Tak", aby handlować na jego korzyść, lub "Nie", aby handlować przeciw niemu, wpisz kwotę i kliknij "Handluj". Jeśli wybrany wynik okaże się poprawny, Twoje udziały "Tak" wypłacą $1 za sztukę. Jeśli jest niepoprawny, wypłacą $0. Możesz też sprzedać swoje udziały w dowolnym momencie przed rozstrzygnięciem.
Obecnym faworytem dla "Claude 5 wydany przez…?" jest "September 30, 2026" z 69%, co oznacza, że rynek przypisuje 69% szansy na ten wynik. Następny najbliższy wynik to "30 czerwca 2026" z 36%. Te kursy aktualizują się w czasie rzeczywistym, gdy traderzy kupują i sprzedają udziały, odzwierciedlając najnowszy zbiorowy pogląd na to, co jest najbardziej prawdopodobne. Sprawdzaj regularnie lub dodaj tę stronę do zakładek, aby śledzić zmiany kursów.
Zasady rozstrzygania "Claude 5 wydany przez…?" określają dokładnie, co musi się wydarzyć, aby każdy wynik został ogłoszony zwycięzcą — w tym oficjalne źródła danych używane do ustalenia wyniku. Możesz przejrzeć pełne kryteria rozstrzygania w sekcji "Zasady" na tej stronie nad komentarzami. Zalecamy dokładne zapoznanie się z zasadami przed handlem, ponieważ określają one precyzyjne warunki, przypadki graniczne i źródła regulujące rozstrzyganie tego rynku.
Tak. Nie musisz handlować, aby być na bieżąco. Ta strona służy jako tracker na żywo dla "Claude 5 wydany przez…?". Prawdopodobieństwa wyników aktualizują się w czasie rzeczywistym z każdą nową transakcją. Możesz dodać tę stronę do zakładek i sprawdzić sekcję komentarzy, aby zobaczyć, co myślą inni traderzy. Możesz też użyć filtrów zakresu czasu na wykresie, aby zobaczyć, jak kursy zmieniały się w czasie. To darmowe, działające w czasie rzeczywistym okno na to, czego rynek oczekuje.
Kursy Polymarket ustalane są przez prawdziwych traderów stawiających prawdziwe pieniądze za swoimi przekonaniami, co zwykle prowadzi do trafnych prognoz. Z $4.1 million wolumenu na "Claude 5 wydany przez…?", ceny te agregują zbiorową wiedzę i zaangażowanie tysięcy uczestników — często przewyższając sondaże, prognozy ekspertów i tradycyjne badania. Rynki prognoz jak Polymarket mają silną historię trafności, szczególnie gdy wydarzenia zbliżają się do rozstrzygnięcia. Na przykład, Polymarket ma miesięczny wynik trafności 94%. Najnowsze statystyki trafności prognoz Polymarket znajdziesz na stronie trafności na Polymarket.
Aby złożyć swoje pierwsze zlecenie na "Claude 5 wydany przez…?", zarejestruj darmowe konto Polymarket i doładuj je kryptowalutą, kartą kredytową lub debetową albo przelewem bankowym. Po doładowaniu konta wróć na tę stronę, wybierz wynik, na który chcesz handlować, wpisz kwotę i kliknij "Handluj". Jeśli jesteś nowy w rynkach prognoz, kliknij link "Jak to działa" na górze dowolnej strony Polymarket, aby zobaczyć szybki przewodnik krok po kroku.
Na Polymarket cena każdego wyniku reprezentuje implikowane prawdopodobieństwo rynku. Cena 69¢ za "September 30, 2026" na rynku "Claude 5 wydany przez…?" oznacza, że traderzy zbiorowo wierzą, iż istnieje w przybliżeniu 69% szansy na to, że "September 30, 2026" będzie poprawnym wynikiem. Jeśli kupisz udziały "Tak" po 69¢ i wynik jest poprawny, otrzymasz $1.00 za udział — zysk 31¢ za udział. Jeśli jest niepoprawny, te udziały są warte $0.
Planowana data zakończenia rynku "Claude 5 wydany przez…?" minęła, ale rynek nie został jeszcze oficjalnie rozstrzygnięty. Data zakończenia wskazuje, kiedy oczekuje się, że dane wydarzenie nastąpi lub stanie się poznawalne. Nie jest to moment zakończenia handlu. Rynek pozostaje otwarty do handlu aż do formalnego rozstrzygnięcia wyniku. Możesz nadal kupować, sprzedawać lub zamykać swoją pozycję w oczekiwaniu na rozstrzygnięcie. Sprawdź tracker statusu rozstrzygnięcia i sekcję "Zasady" na tej stronie.
Rynek "Claude 5 wydany przez…?" ma aktywną społeczność z 209 komentarzami, gdzie traderzy dzielą się swoimi analizami, debatują nad wynikami i omawiają najnowsze wydarzenia. Przewiń w dół do sekcji komentarzy, aby przeczytać, co myślą inni uczestnicy. Możesz też filtrować według "Najwięksi posiadacze", aby zobaczyć, na co postawiły największe portfele rynku, lub sprawdzić zakładkę "Aktywność" dla transmisji transakcji na żywo.
Polymarket to największy na świecie rynek prognoz, na którym możesz być na bieżąco i czerpać zyski ze swojej wiedzy o wydarzeniach w świecie rzeczywistym. Traderzy kupują i sprzedają udziały w wynikach tematów od polityki i wyborów po kryptowaluty, finanse, sport, technologię i kulturę, w tym rynki takie jak "Claude 5 wydany przez…?". Ceny odzwierciedlają zbiorowe prawdopodobieństwa w czasie rzeczywistym poparte finansowym zaangażowaniem, często dostarczając szybsze i trafniejsze sygnały niż sondaże, komentatorzy czy tradycyjne badania.
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