Persistent inflation near 30% annualized, combined with Argentina’s inflation-linked crawling band policy introduced in January 2026, forms the core driver behind the 62.5% market-implied probability for the official USD/ARS rate finishing above 1,600 by year-end. The band now widens monthly in line with lagged CPI readings, supporting gradual nominal depreciation while the central bank accumulates reserves ahead of debt obligations. With the spot rate near 1,488 in mid-August and monthly inflation around 1.9%, the trajectory aligns with analyst projections of 1,550–1,680 by December. Recent reserve-building purchases and IMF program developments reinforce controlled but ongoing weakening, consistent with the 25.4% probability on the 1,450–1,499 bucket and lower odds on tighter ranges.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano1600.00+ 59%
1500.00–1549.99 15.0%
1550.00–1599.99 10.6%
1450.00–1499.99 6.7%
NOWE
NOWE
Dec 30, 2026
<1250.00
3%
1250.00–1299.99
<1%
1300.00–1349.99
<1%
1350.00–1399.99
<1%
1400.00–1449.99
4%
1450.00–1499.99
25%
1500.00–1549.99
15%
1550.00–1599.99
11%
1600.00+
63%
1600.00+ 59%
1500.00–1549.99 15.0%
1550.00–1599.99 10.6%
1450.00–1499.99 6.7%
NOWE
NOWE
Dec 30, 2026
<1250.00
$536 Wol.
3%
1250.00–1299.99
$790 Wol.
<1%
1300.00–1349.99
$677 Wol.
<1%
1350.00–1399.99
$736 Wol.
<1%
1400.00–1449.99
$1,239 Wol.
4%
1450.00–1499.99
$1,264 Wol.
25%
1500.00–1549.99
$1,223 Wol.
15%
1550.00–1599.99
$694 Wol.
11%
1600.00+
$1,902 Wol.
63%
This is a market about Argentina’s official wholesale U.S. dollar exchange rate at market close on the last business day of December 2026, as published by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA).
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Persistent inflation near 30% annualized, combined with Argentina’s inflation-linked crawling band policy introduced in January 2026, forms the core driver behind the 62.5% market-implied probability for the official USD/ARS rate finishing above 1,600 by year-end. The band now widens monthly in line with lagged CPI readings, supporting gradual nominal depreciation while the central bank accumulates reserves ahead of debt obligations. With the spot rate near 1,488 in mid-August and monthly inflation around 1.9%, the trajectory aligns with analyst projections of 1,550–1,680 by December. Recent reserve-building purchases and IMF program developments reinforce controlled but ongoing weakening, consistent with the 25.4% probability on the 1,450–1,499 bucket and lower odds on tighter ranges.
This is a market about Argentina’s official wholesale U.S. dollar exchange rate at market close on the last business day of December 2026, as published by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA).
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Rynek otwarty: Jan 21, 2026, 10:25 AM ET
Wolumen
$9,062Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jan 21, 2026, 10:25 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about Argentina’s official wholesale U.S. dollar exchange rate at market close on the last business day of December 2026, as published by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA).
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Persistent inflation near 30% annualized, combined with Argentina’s inflation-linked crawling band policy introduced in January 2026, forms the core driver behind the 62.5% market-implied probability for the official USD/ARS rate finishing above 1,600 by year-end. The band now widens monthly in line with lagged CPI readings, supporting gradual nominal depreciation while the central bank accumulates reserves ahead of debt obligations. With the spot rate near 1,488 in mid-August and monthly inflation around 1.9%, the trajectory aligns with analyst projections of 1,550–1,680 by December. Recent reserve-building purchases and IMF program developments reinforce controlled but ongoing weakening, consistent with the 25.4% probability on the 1,450–1,499 bucket and lower odds on tighter ranges.
This is a market about Argentina’s official wholesale U.S. dollar exchange rate at market close on the last business day of December 2026, as published by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA).
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Wolumen
$9,062Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jan 21, 2026, 10:25 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Persistent inflation near 30% annualized, combined with Argentina’s inflation-linked crawling band policy introduced in January 2026, forms the core driver behind the 62.5% market-implied probability for the official USD/ARS rate finishing above 1,600 by year-end. The band now widens monthly in line with lagged CPI readings, supporting gradual nominal depreciation while the central bank accumulates reserves ahead of debt obligations. With the spot rate near 1,488 in mid-August and monthly inflation around 1.9%, the trajectory aligns with analyst projections of 1,550–1,680 by December. Recent reserve-building purchases and IMF program developments reinforce controlled but ongoing weakening, consistent with the 25.4% probability on the 1,450–1,499 bucket and lower odds on tighter ranges.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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