**No outcome at 94.5% implied probability reflects the statistical rarity of magnitude 8.0+ earthquakes combined with the brief two-week window remaining and absence of detectable precursors.** Global catalogs show roughly one M8+ event per year on average, with none recorded in 2026 to date; recent activity includes isolated M7.0–7.7 quakes (such as the April Japan Trench event that briefly raised short-term megaquake odds to ~1%) but no foreshock swarms, accelerated strain, or model consensus indicating imminent rupture on major subduction zones. USGS and equivalent monitoring agencies report typical background seismicity without anomalous clustering or slow-slip signals that historically precede great events. While sudden dynamic triggering on locked faults remains possible, the compressed timeline and lack of supporting geophysical indicators sustain strong trader consensus for no resolution by June 30.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트6월 30일까지 메가 지진이 발생하나요?
6월 30일까지 메가 지진이 발생하나요?
예
$79,237 거래량
$79,237 거래량
2026.06.30
예
$79,237 거래량
$79,237 거래량
2026.06.30
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.**No outcome at 94.5% implied probability reflects the statistical rarity of magnitude 8.0+ earthquakes combined with the brief two-week window remaining and absence of detectable precursors.** Global catalogs show roughly one M8+ event per year on average, with none recorded in 2026 to date; recent activity includes isolated M7.0–7.7 quakes (such as the April Japan Trench event that briefly raised short-term megaquake odds to ~1%) but no foreshock swarms, accelerated strain, or model consensus indicating imminent rupture on major subduction zones. USGS and equivalent monitoring agencies report typical background seismicity without anomalous clustering or slow-slip signals that historically precede great events. While sudden dynamic triggering on locked faults remains possible, the compressed timeline and lack of supporting geophysical indicators sustain strong trader consensus for no resolution by June 30.
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
마켓 개설일: Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ET
거래량
$79,237종료일
2026.06.30마켓 개설일
Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.**No outcome at 94.5% implied probability reflects the statistical rarity of magnitude 8.0+ earthquakes combined with the brief two-week window remaining and absence of detectable precursors.** Global catalogs show roughly one M8+ event per year on average, with none recorded in 2026 to date; recent activity includes isolated M7.0–7.7 quakes (such as the April Japan Trench event that briefly raised short-term megaquake odds to ~1%) but no foreshock swarms, accelerated strain, or model consensus indicating imminent rupture on major subduction zones. USGS and equivalent monitoring agencies report typical background seismicity without anomalous clustering or slow-slip signals that historically precede great events. While sudden dynamic triggering on locked faults remains possible, the compressed timeline and lack of supporting geophysical indicators sustain strong trader consensus for no resolution by June 30.
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
거래량
$79,237종료일
2026.06.30마켓 개설일
Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**No outcome at 94.5% implied probability reflects the statistical rarity of magnitude 8.0+ earthquakes combined with the brief two-week window remaining and absence of detectable precursors.** Global catalogs show roughly one M8+ event per year on average, with none recorded in 2026 to date; recent activity includes isolated M7.0–7.7 quakes (such as the April Japan Trench event that briefly raised short-term megaquake odds to ~1%) but no foreshock swarms, accelerated strain, or model consensus indicating imminent rupture on major subduction zones. USGS and equivalent monitoring agencies report typical background seismicity without anomalous clustering or slow-slip signals that historically precede great events. While sudden dynamic triggering on locked faults remains possible, the compressed timeline and lack of supporting geophysical indicators sustain strong trader consensus for no resolution by June 30.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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