Recent monthly global surface temperature anomalies reported by NOAA and NASA, hovering near 1.12–1.18°C above the 20th-century average through April 2026, underpin the overwhelming market consensus for a May 2026 anomaly of 1.10–1.14°C. Weak La Niña conditions have tempered the long-term anthropogenic warming trend, keeping readings within this narrow band consistent with the past decade’s trajectory. Official monitoring shows the ten warmest years on record clustered since 2015, with 2026 expected to rank similarly under current ENSO forecasts. Final May data releases and any late adjustments to sea-surface temperature datasets could shift outcomes only if they deviate markedly from ongoing model runs.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트May 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
May 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
1.10–1.14ºC 96.0%
<1.10ºC 1.1%
1.15–1.19ºC <1%
1.20–1.24ºC <1%
$189,610 거래량
$189,610 거래량
2026.06.10
<1.10ºC
1%
1.10–1.14ºC
96%
1.15–1.19ºC
1%
1.20–1.24ºC
<1%
1.25–1.29ºC
<1%
>1.29ºC
<1%
1.10–1.14ºC 96.0%
<1.10ºC 1.1%
1.15–1.19ºC <1%
1.20–1.24ºC <1%
$189,610 거래량
$189,610 거래량
2026.06.10
<1.10ºC
$59,809 거래량
1%
1.10–1.14ºC
$24,102 거래량
96%
1.15–1.19ºC
$36,334 거래량
1%
1.20–1.24ºC
$22,909 거래량
<1%
1.25–1.29ºC
$20,232 거래량
<1%
>1.29ºC
$26,225 거래량
<1%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Recent monthly global surface temperature anomalies reported by NOAA and NASA, hovering near 1.12–1.18°C above the 20th-century average through April 2026, underpin the overwhelming market consensus for a May 2026 anomaly of 1.10–1.14°C. Weak La Niña conditions have tempered the long-term anthropogenic warming trend, keeping readings within this narrow band consistent with the past decade’s trajectory. Official monitoring shows the ten warmest years on record clustered since 2015, with 2026 expected to rank similarly under current ENSO forecasts. Final May data releases and any late adjustments to sea-surface temperature datasets could shift outcomes only if they deviate markedly from ongoing model runs.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
마켓 개설일: Apr 27, 2026, 4:35 PM ET
거래량
$189,610종료일
2026.06.10마켓 개설일
Apr 27, 2026, 4:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Recent monthly global surface temperature anomalies reported by NOAA and NASA, hovering near 1.12–1.18°C above the 20th-century average through April 2026, underpin the overwhelming market consensus for a May 2026 anomaly of 1.10–1.14°C. Weak La Niña conditions have tempered the long-term anthropogenic warming trend, keeping readings within this narrow band consistent with the past decade’s trajectory. Official monitoring shows the ten warmest years on record clustered since 2015, with 2026 expected to rank similarly under current ENSO forecasts. Final May data releases and any late adjustments to sea-surface temperature datasets could shift outcomes only if they deviate markedly from ongoing model runs.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
거래량
$189,610종료일
2026.06.10마켓 개설일
Apr 27, 2026, 4:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent monthly global surface temperature anomalies reported by NOAA and NASA, hovering near 1.12–1.18°C above the 20th-century average through April 2026, underpin the overwhelming market consensus for a May 2026 anomaly of 1.10–1.14°C. Weak La Niña conditions have tempered the long-term anthropogenic warming trend, keeping readings within this narrow band consistent with the past decade’s trajectory. Official monitoring shows the ten warmest years on record clustered since 2015, with 2026 expected to rank similarly under current ENSO forecasts. Final May data releases and any late adjustments to sea-surface temperature datasets could shift outcomes only if they deviate markedly from ongoing model runs.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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