Trader consensus strongly favors a Pause–Pause–Pause outcome through July at 92% implied probability, driven by the Federal Reserve’s data-dependent stance amid moderating yet persistent inflation readings and a resilient labor market. Recent CPI and employment reports have aligned with expectations for steady policy, keeping the federal funds rate unchanged as traders price in limited near-term easing pressure relative to official guidance. This market-implied path reflects the wisdom of crowds in prediction markets, where real capital backs assessments of balanced risks. Upcoming June and July FOMC meetings, alongside fresh inflation and payroll data, remain key swing factors that could shift odds if releases materially deviate from current trajectories.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트Pause–Pause–Pause 93%
Other 4.4%
Pause–Pause–Cut 3.1%
Pause–Cut–Pause 1.3%
$54,334 거래량
$54,334 거래량
2026.07.29
Pause–Pause–Pause
93%
Pause–Pause–Cut
3%
Pause–Cut–Pause
1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
<1%
Other
4%
Pause–Pause–Pause 93%
Other 4.4%
Pause–Pause–Cut 3.1%
Pause–Cut–Pause 1.3%
$54,334 거래량
$54,334 거래량
2026.07.29
Pause–Pause–Pause
$4,885 거래량
93%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$2,918 거래량
3%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$2,632 거래량
1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$1,937 거래량
<1%
Other
$1,977 거래량
4%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader consensus strongly favors a Pause–Pause–Pause outcome through July at 92% implied probability, driven by the Federal Reserve’s data-dependent stance amid moderating yet persistent inflation readings and a resilient labor market. Recent CPI and employment reports have aligned with expectations for steady policy, keeping the federal funds rate unchanged as traders price in limited near-term easing pressure relative to official guidance. This market-implied path reflects the wisdom of crowds in prediction markets, where real capital backs assessments of balanced risks. Upcoming June and July FOMC meetings, alongside fresh inflation and payroll data, remain key swing factors that could shift odds if releases materially deviate from current trajectories.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
마켓 개설일: Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ET
거래량
$54,334종료일
2026.07.29마켓 개설일
Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader consensus strongly favors a Pause–Pause–Pause outcome through July at 92% implied probability, driven by the Federal Reserve’s data-dependent stance amid moderating yet persistent inflation readings and a resilient labor market. Recent CPI and employment reports have aligned with expectations for steady policy, keeping the federal funds rate unchanged as traders price in limited near-term easing pressure relative to official guidance. This market-implied path reflects the wisdom of crowds in prediction markets, where real capital backs assessments of balanced risks. Upcoming June and July FOMC meetings, alongside fresh inflation and payroll data, remain key swing factors that could shift odds if releases materially deviate from current trajectories.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
거래량
$54,334종료일
2026.07.29마켓 개설일
Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus strongly favors a Pause–Pause–Pause outcome through July at 92% implied probability, driven by the Federal Reserve’s data-dependent stance amid moderating yet persistent inflation readings and a resilient labor market. Recent CPI and employment reports have aligned with expectations for steady policy, keeping the federal funds rate unchanged as traders price in limited near-term easing pressure relative to official guidance. This market-implied path reflects the wisdom of crowds in prediction markets, where real capital backs assessments of balanced risks. Upcoming June and July FOMC meetings, alongside fresh inflation and payroll data, remain key swing factors that could shift odds if releases materially deviate from current trajectories.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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