Erdoğan’s continued hold on the Turkish presidency through the end of 2026 reflects his firm institutional control, constitutional term limits extending to 2028, and the absence of any verified health, legal, or political developments that would force an early exit. Recent court rulings against opposition figures, including the ousting of CHP leadership, have further reduced near-term challenges to his authority, while he remains active in domestic policy and international diplomacy. Traders assign only an 8% implied probability to removal by the deadline because no primary sources indicate imminent resignation, incapacity, or snap-election triggers within the resolution window. Late developments such as sudden medical announcements or major coalition shifts could still alter this assessment, though none have materialized in the past month.