Geopolitical supply shocks from the ongoing US-Iran conflict and effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz dominate near-term WTI pricing, with Middle East output curtailed by more than 11 million barrels per day and global inventories drawing at a 6.3 million b/d pace in Q2 2026. This has lifted WTI futures into the $87–$91 range as of mid-June, consistent with the EIA’s $105/b Brent average projection for the month under its baseline closure assumption. Trader sentiment reflected in the 69.5% implied probability for settlement above $84 incorporates the risk premium from tight inventories and limited near-term flow resumption, tempered by reports of potential diplomatic progress that triggered May volatility and counterbalanced by resilient non-OPEC supply growth. Key near-term catalysts include weekly EIA inventory data and any updates on Hormuz traffic or ceasefire negotiations.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트원유 (CL) 는 6월에 무엇을 정산할 예정인가요?
원유 (CL) 는 6월에 무엇을 정산할 예정인가요?
>$84 이상 70%
$77-$84 19%
$70~$77 7.3%
$63-$70 3.0%
$224,850 거래량
$224,850 거래량
2026.06.30
$42 미만
<1%
$42-$49
<1%
$49-$56
<1%
$56-$63
1%
$63-$70
3%
$70~$77
7%
$77-$84
19%
>$84 이상
70%
>$84 이상 70%
$77-$84 19%
$70~$77 7.3%
$63-$70 3.0%
$224,850 거래량
$224,850 거래량
2026.06.30
$42 미만
$22,176 거래량
<1%
$42-$49
$10,704 거래량
<1%
$49-$56
$12,945 거래량
<1%
$56-$63
$15,231 거래량
1%
$63-$70
$29,167 거래량
3%
$70~$77
$19,637 거래량
7%
$77-$84
$19,862 거래량
19%
>$84 이상
$95,127 거래량
70%
This market will resolve according to the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Crude Oil futures on the final trading day of June 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.Geopolitical supply shocks from the ongoing US-Iran conflict and effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz dominate near-term WTI pricing, with Middle East output curtailed by more than 11 million barrels per day and global inventories drawing at a 6.3 million b/d pace in Q2 2026. This has lifted WTI futures into the $87–$91 range as of mid-June, consistent with the EIA’s $105/b Brent average projection for the month under its baseline closure assumption. Trader sentiment reflected in the 69.5% implied probability for settlement above $84 incorporates the risk premium from tight inventories and limited near-term flow resumption, tempered by reports of potential diplomatic progress that triggered May volatility and counterbalanced by resilient non-OPEC supply growth. Key near-term catalysts include weekly EIA inventory data and any updates on Hormuz traffic or ceasefire negotiations.
This market will resolve according to the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Crude Oil futures on the final trading day of June 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
마켓 개설일: Dec 26, 2025, 6:31 PM ET
거래량
$224,850종료일
2026.06.30마켓 개설일
Dec 26, 2025, 6:31 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Crude Oil futures on the final trading day of June 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.Geopolitical supply shocks from the ongoing US-Iran conflict and effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz dominate near-term WTI pricing, with Middle East output curtailed by more than 11 million barrels per day and global inventories drawing at a 6.3 million b/d pace in Q2 2026. This has lifted WTI futures into the $87–$91 range as of mid-June, consistent with the EIA’s $105/b Brent average projection for the month under its baseline closure assumption. Trader sentiment reflected in the 69.5% implied probability for settlement above $84 incorporates the risk premium from tight inventories and limited near-term flow resumption, tempered by reports of potential diplomatic progress that triggered May volatility and counterbalanced by resilient non-OPEC supply growth. Key near-term catalysts include weekly EIA inventory data and any updates on Hormuz traffic or ceasefire negotiations.
This market will resolve according to the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Crude Oil futures on the final trading day of June 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
거래량
$224,850종료일
2026.06.30마켓 개설일
Dec 26, 2025, 6:31 PM ETGeopolitical supply shocks from the ongoing US-Iran conflict and effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz dominate near-term WTI pricing, with Middle East output curtailed by more than 11 million barrels per day and global inventories drawing at a 6.3 million b/d pace in Q2 2026. This has lifted WTI futures into the $87–$91 range as of mid-June, consistent with the EIA’s $105/b Brent average projection for the month under its baseline closure assumption. Trader sentiment reflected in the 69.5% implied probability for settlement above $84 incorporates the risk premium from tight inventories and limited near-term flow resumption, tempered by reports of potential diplomatic progress that triggered May volatility and counterbalanced by resilient non-OPEC supply growth. Key near-term catalysts include weekly EIA inventory data and any updates on Hormuz traffic or ceasefire negotiations.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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