**Recent negotiations between Stripe, Advent International, and PayPal have created the dominant catalyst for current odds.** In mid-July 2026, Stripe and Advent submitted a joint bid at $60.50 per share, valuing PayPal at roughly $53 billion—a 28% premium to then-prevailing levels—with $50 billion in committed bank financing. PayPal’s board rejected the offer as undervaluing the company and has continued pushing for a higher price amid ongoing talks reported in mid-August. PayPal’s ~$53 billion market cap reflects its depressed valuation after years of share-price decline, while Stripe’s private tender at $159 billion underscores its stronger position. Closing a transaction of this scale before year-end faces meaningful hurdles, including regulatory review, integration complexity between Stripe’s merchant infrastructure and PayPal’s consumer network, and the tight remaining timeline. These dynamics support the market-implied probability of no deal completing in 2026 at 63.1%.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
37% 確率
$80,947 Vol.
$80,947 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
37% 確率
$80,947 Vol.
$80,947 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Paypal will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with Stripe by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying acquisition or acquisition announcement must include the acquisition of a controlling interest in Paypal by Stripe. A "controlling interest" is defined as an ownership stake sufficient to control the company's strategic decisions, typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting rights, governance rights, board control, or other mechanisms. Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest, such as minority stake purchases, will not count.
An announcement of a qualifying acquisition or merger by Paypal or Paypal and Stripe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Paypal and Stripe, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Recent negotiations between Stripe, Advent International, and PayPal have created the dominant catalyst for current odds.** In mid-July 2026, Stripe and Advent submitted a joint bid at $60.50 per share, valuing PayPal at roughly $53 billion—a 28% premium to then-prevailing levels—with $50 billion in committed bank financing. PayPal’s board rejected the offer as undervaluing the company and has continued pushing for a higher price amid ongoing talks reported in mid-August.
PayPal’s ~$53 billion market cap reflects its depressed valuation after years of share-price decline, while Stripe’s private tender at $159 billion underscores its stronger position. Closing a transaction of this scale before year-end faces meaningful hurdles, including regulatory review, integration complexity between Stripe’s merchant infrastructure and PayPal’s consumer network, and the tight remaining timeline. These dynamics support the market-implied probability of no deal completing in 2026 at 63.1%.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Paypal will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with Stripe by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying acquisition or acquisition announcement must include the acquisition of a controlling interest in Paypal by Stripe. A "controlling interest" is defined as an ownership stake sufficient to control the company's strategic decisions, typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting rights, governance rights, board control, or other mechanisms. Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest, such as minority stake purchases, will not count.
An announcement of a qualifying acquisition or merger by Paypal or Paypal and Stripe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Paypal and Stripe, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying acquisition or acquisition announcement must include the acquisition of a controlling interest in Paypal by Stripe. A "controlling interest" is defined as an ownership stake sufficient to control the company's strategic decisions, typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting rights, governance rights, board control, or other mechanisms. Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest, such as minority stake purchases, will not count.
An announcement of a qualifying acquisition or merger by Paypal or Paypal and Stripe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Paypal and Stripe, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Feb 24, 2026, 5:35 PM ET
音量
$80,947終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Feb 24, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Paypal will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with Stripe by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying acquisition or acquisition announcement must include the acquisition of a controlling interest in Paypal by Stripe. A "controlling interest" is defined as an ownership stake sufficient to control the company's strategic decisions, typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting rights, governance rights, board control, or other mechanisms. Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest, such as minority stake purchases, will not count.
An announcement of a qualifying acquisition or merger by Paypal or Paypal and Stripe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Paypal and Stripe, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Recent negotiations between Stripe, Advent International, and PayPal have created the dominant catalyst for current odds.** In mid-July 2026, Stripe and Advent submitted a joint bid at $60.50 per share, valuing PayPal at roughly $53 billion—a 28% premium to then-prevailing levels—with $50 billion in committed bank financing. PayPal’s board rejected the offer as undervaluing the company and has continued pushing for a higher price amid ongoing talks reported in mid-August.
PayPal’s ~$53 billion market cap reflects its depressed valuation after years of share-price decline, while Stripe’s private tender at $159 billion underscores its stronger position. Closing a transaction of this scale before year-end faces meaningful hurdles, including regulatory review, integration complexity between Stripe’s merchant infrastructure and PayPal’s consumer network, and the tight remaining timeline. These dynamics support the market-implied probability of no deal completing in 2026 at 63.1%.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Paypal will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with Stripe by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying acquisition or acquisition announcement must include the acquisition of a controlling interest in Paypal by Stripe. A "controlling interest" is defined as an ownership stake sufficient to control the company's strategic decisions, typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting rights, governance rights, board control, or other mechanisms. Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest, such as minority stake purchases, will not count.
An announcement of a qualifying acquisition or merger by Paypal or Paypal and Stripe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Paypal and Stripe, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying acquisition or acquisition announcement must include the acquisition of a controlling interest in Paypal by Stripe. A "controlling interest" is defined as an ownership stake sufficient to control the company's strategic decisions, typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting rights, governance rights, board control, or other mechanisms. Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest, such as minority stake purchases, will not count.
An announcement of a qualifying acquisition or merger by Paypal or Paypal and Stripe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Paypal and Stripe, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$80,947終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Feb 24, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Recent negotiations between Stripe, Advent International, and PayPal have created the dominant catalyst for current odds.** In mid-July 2026, Stripe and Advent submitted a joint bid at $60.50 per share, valuing PayPal at roughly $53 billion—a 28% premium to then-prevailing levels—with $50 billion in committed bank financing. PayPal’s board rejected the offer as undervaluing the company and has continued pushing for a higher price amid ongoing talks reported in mid-August. PayPal’s ~$53 billion market cap reflects its depressed valuation after years of share-price decline, while Stripe’s private tender at $159 billion underscores its stronger position. Closing a transaction of this scale before year-end faces meaningful hurdles, including regulatory review, integration complexity between Stripe’s merchant infrastructure and PayPal’s consumer network, and the tight remaining timeline. These dynamics support the market-implied probability of no deal completing in 2026 at 63.1%.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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