**In Alaska’s August 18, 2026 nonpartisan top-four primary, a crowded field of roughly 15–20 candidates—including incumbent Sen. Dan S. Sullivan (R), former Rep. Mary Peltola (D), a second Republican named Dan J. Sullivan, Dustin Darden, and numerous lesser-known contenders—makes the plurality vote leader highly uncertain, keeping market odds tightly clustered near even or low probabilities for any single name.** The recent Alaska Supreme Court ruling allowing the second Dan Sullivan on the ballot has amplified voter-confusion risks in a system where only the top four advance to the ranked-choice general, potentially splitting Republican-leaning votes while Peltola benefits from statewide name recognition after her prior wins. Incumbent Sullivan holds structural advantages in fundraising and party infrastructure, yet recent general-election polling shows Peltola competitive or ahead, underscoring the open primary’s volatility. Minor candidates face steep barriers from low visibility and limited resources. Trader consensus reflects this fragmentation: no candidate has consolidated broad support weeks out, and outcomes hinge on turnout, name-recognition effects, and any late endorsements or spending surges that could separate frontrunners before primary day.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日メアリー・ペルトラ 64%
ダン・S・サリバン上院議員 32.9%
リチャード・グレイソン 1.6%
ヘザー・マクエルウェイン <1%
$15,493 Vol.
$15,493 Vol.
メアリー・ペルトラ
64%
ダン・S・サリバン上院議員
33%
リチャード・グレイソン
2%
ヘザー・マクエルウェイン
1%
シャーリー・ソーサーマン
1%
リチャード・ベネディクト・マイヤーズ
1%
デイビッド・レスリー
1%
ダン・J・サリバン
1%
スコット・コルハース
1%
ダスティン・ダーデン
<1%
フレッド・C・グラウバーガー
<1%
アール・D・「スキップ」・サウスワース
13%
リース・ロバーツ
<1%
キャロル・ハフナー
<1%
ジェラルド・L・ヘイクス
<1%
シド・ヒル
<1%
メアリー・ペルトラ 64%
ダン・S・サリバン上院議員 32.9%
リチャード・グレイソン 1.6%
ヘザー・マクエルウェイン <1%
$15,493 Vol.
$15,493 Vol.
メアリー・ペルトラ
64%
ダン・S・サリバン上院議員
33%
リチャード・グレイソン
2%
ヘザー・マクエルウェイン
1%
シャーリー・ソーサーマン
1%
リチャード・ベネディクト・マイヤーズ
1%
デイビッド・レスリー
1%
ダン・J・サリバン
1%
スコット・コルハース
1%
ダスティン・ダーデン
<1%
フレッド・C・グラウバーガー
<1%
アール・D・「スキップ」・サウスワース
13%
リース・ロバーツ
<1%
キャロル・ハフナー
<1%
ジェラルド・L・ヘイクス
<1%
シド・ヒル
<1%
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Senator from Alaska as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Alaska, specifically the Division of Elections.
マーケット開始日： Jul 1, 2026, 4:48 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Senator from Alaska as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Alaska, specifically the Division of Elections.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...**In Alaska’s August 18, 2026 nonpartisan top-four primary, a crowded field of roughly 15–20 candidates—including incumbent Sen. Dan S. Sullivan (R), former Rep. Mary Peltola (D), a second Republican named Dan J. Sullivan, Dustin Darden, and numerous lesser-known contenders—makes the plurality vote leader highly uncertain, keeping market odds tightly clustered near even or low probabilities for any single name.** The recent Alaska Supreme Court ruling allowing the second Dan Sullivan on the ballot has amplified voter-confusion risks in a system where only the top four advance to the ranked-choice general, potentially splitting Republican-leaning votes while Peltola benefits from statewide name recognition after her prior wins. Incumbent Sullivan holds structural advantages in fundraising and party infrastructure, yet recent general-election polling shows Peltola competitive or ahead, underscoring the open primary’s volatility. Minor candidates face steep barriers from low visibility and limited resources. Trader consensus reflects this fragmentation: no candidate has consolidated broad support weeks out, and outcomes hinge on turnout, name-recognition effects, and any late endorsements or spending surges that could separate frontrunners before primary day.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問