**Widespread flash drought across the south-central United States has driven extensive areas of D4 exceptional drought, supporting the market's 99.5% implied probability for 10 or more states.** Official U.S. Drought Monitor data valid September 8, 2026, show rapid intensification from prolonged heat, low precipitation, and soil moisture deficits, particularly expanding D3-D4 coverage in Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri, and adjacent states in the lower Midwest and Mississippi Valley. This aligns with National Drought Mitigation Center assessments of short-term agricultural and hydrological impacts under the five-category scale. The 1.5% national D4 area share and reports of 43+ states in D1+ drought provide historical precedent for multi-state exceptional conditions during late-summer flash events. Scenarios that could realistically alter this include substantial rainfall in the next monitoring period or revisions in subsequent USDM analyses that contract D4 boundaries below the 10-state threshold.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日2026年9月8日の週に、D 4 （異常な干ばつ）になる州はいくつありますか？
2026年9月8日の週に、D 4 （異常な干ばつ）になる州はいくつありますか？
10州以上 99.5%
0州 <1%
1～2州 <1%
3〜4州 <1%
$409 Vol.
$409 Vol.
2026/09/10
0州
<1%
1～2州
<1%
3〜4州
<1%
5～6州
<1%
7〜9州
<1%
10州以上
100%
10州以上 99.5%
0州 <1%
1～2州 <1%
3〜4州 <1%
$409 Vol.
$409 Vol.
2026/09/10
0州
$91 Vol.
<1%
1～2州
$80 Vol.
<1%
3〜4州
$58 Vol.
<1%
5～6州
$58 Vol.
<1%
7〜9州
$58 Vol.
<1%
10州以上
$63 Vol.
100%
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 8, 2026.
Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.**Widespread flash drought across the south-central United States has driven extensive areas of D4 exceptional drought, supporting the market's 99.5% implied probability for 10 or more states.** Official U.S. Drought Monitor data valid September 8, 2026, show rapid intensification from prolonged heat, low precipitation, and soil moisture deficits, particularly expanding D3-D4 coverage in Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri, and adjacent states in the lower Midwest and Mississippi Valley. This aligns with National Drought Mitigation Center assessments of short-term agricultural and hydrological impacts under the five-category scale. The 1.5% national D4 area share and reports of 43+ states in D1+ drought provide historical precedent for multi-state exceptional conditions during late-summer flash events. Scenarios that could realistically alter this include substantial rainfall in the next monitoring period or revisions in subsequent USDM analyses that contract D4 boundaries below the 10-state threshold.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 8, 2026.
Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.
Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.
マーケット開始日： Sep 3, 2026, 9:00 AM ET
音量
$409終了日
2026/09/10マーケット開始日
Sep 3, 2026, 9:00 AM ETThis market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 8, 2026.
Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.**Widespread flash drought across the south-central United States has driven extensive areas of D4 exceptional drought, supporting the market's 99.5% implied probability for 10 or more states.** Official U.S. Drought Monitor data valid September 8, 2026, show rapid intensification from prolonged heat, low precipitation, and soil moisture deficits, particularly expanding D3-D4 coverage in Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri, and adjacent states in the lower Midwest and Mississippi Valley. This aligns with National Drought Mitigation Center assessments of short-term agricultural and hydrological impacts under the five-category scale. The 1.5% national D4 area share and reports of 43+ states in D1+ drought provide historical precedent for multi-state exceptional conditions during late-summer flash events. Scenarios that could realistically alter this include substantial rainfall in the next monitoring period or revisions in subsequent USDM analyses that contract D4 boundaries below the 10-state threshold.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 8, 2026.
Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.
Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.
音量
$409終了日
2026/09/10マーケット開始日
Sep 3, 2026, 9:00 AM ET**Widespread flash drought across the south-central United States has driven extensive areas of D4 exceptional drought, supporting the market's 99.5% implied probability for 10 or more states.** Official U.S. Drought Monitor data valid September 8, 2026, show rapid intensification from prolonged heat, low precipitation, and soil moisture deficits, particularly expanding D3-D4 coverage in Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri, and adjacent states in the lower Midwest and Mississippi Valley. This aligns with National Drought Mitigation Center assessments of short-term agricultural and hydrological impacts under the five-category scale. The 1.5% national D4 area share and reports of 43+ states in D1+ drought provide historical precedent for multi-state exceptional conditions during late-summer flash events. Scenarios that could realistically alter this include substantial rainfall in the next monitoring period or revisions in subsequent USDM analyses that contract D4 boundaries below the 10-state threshold.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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