Recent polling from mid-August, including Suffolk University/Boston Globe and UMass Amherst surveys, shows incumbent Sen. Ed Markey widening his lead over Rep. Seth Moulton to double digits among likely Democratic primary voters ahead of the Sept. 1 contest, with Markey at 52-60% support versus Moulton’s 32-38%. This shift from tighter June and July results has reinforced trader expectations of a Markey victory, concentrating probabilities on his margin-of-victory ranges while elevating “Other” as the top outcome amid uncertainty over turnout, undecided voters, and exact spread. Markey’s advantages among progressives, women, and liberals, combined with his long record and higher trust ratings on key issues, have limited Moulton’s generational-change messaging despite debates and advertising. The race’s resolution hinges on final voter mobilization in the coming days.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日マーキー 40％以上 43%
モールトン 5％未満 43%
マーキー 5～10％ 42%
マーキー 15～20％ 41%
新規
新規
2026/09/01
マーキー 40％以上
43%
マーキー 35〜40％
19%
マーキー 30〜35％
26%
マーキー 25〜30％
35%
マーキー 20〜25％
35%
マーキー 15～20％
41%
マーキー 10～15％
27%
マーキー 5～10％
42%
マーキー <5％
22%
モールトン 5％未満
43%
モールトン 5％以上
5%
マーキー 40％以上 43%
モールトン 5％未満 43%
マーキー 5～10％ 42%
マーキー 15～20％ 41%
新規
新規
2026/09/01
マーキー 40％以上
$16 Vol.
43%
マーキー 35〜40％
$16 Vol.
19%
マーキー 30〜35％
$16 Vol.
26%
マーキー 25〜30％
$23 Vol.
35%
マーキー 20〜25％
$16 Vol.
35%
マーキー 15～20％
$16 Vol.
41%
マーキー 10～15％
$16 Vol.
27%
マーキー 5～10％
$16 Vol.
42%
マーキー <5％
$16 Vol.
22%
モールトン 5％未満
$16 Vol.
43%
モールトン 5％以上
$101 Vol.
5%
The Massachusetts state primary is scheduled to be held on September 1, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Massachusetts Democratic Primary for U.S. Senator.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Commonwealth of Massachusetts, such as official statewide results published by the Massachusetts Secretary of the Commonwealth (https://www.sec.state.ma.us/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Recent polling from mid-August, including Suffolk University/Boston Globe and UMass Amherst surveys, shows incumbent Sen. Ed Markey widening his lead over Rep. Seth Moulton to double digits among likely Democratic primary voters ahead of the Sept. 1 contest, with Markey at 52-60% support versus Moulton’s 32-38%. This shift from tighter June and July results has reinforced trader expectations of a Markey victory, concentrating probabilities on his margin-of-victory ranges while elevating “Other” as the top outcome amid uncertainty over turnout, undecided voters, and exact spread. Markey’s advantages among progressives, women, and liberals, combined with his long record and higher trust ratings on key issues, have limited Moulton’s generational-change messaging despite debates and advertising. The race’s resolution hinges on final voter mobilization in the coming days.
The Massachusetts state primary is scheduled to be held on September 1, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Massachusetts Democratic Primary for U.S. Senator.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Commonwealth of Massachusetts, such as official statewide results published by the Massachusetts Secretary of the Commonwealth (https://www.sec.state.ma.us/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Massachusetts Democratic Primary for U.S. Senator.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Commonwealth of Massachusetts, such as official statewide results published by the Massachusetts Secretary of the Commonwealth (https://www.sec.state.ma.us/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
マーケット開始日： Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 PM ET
音量
$268終了日
2026/09/01マーケット開始日
Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Massachusetts state primary is scheduled to be held on September 1, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Massachusetts Democratic Primary for U.S. Senator.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Commonwealth of Massachusetts, such as official statewide results published by the Massachusetts Secretary of the Commonwealth (https://www.sec.state.ma.us/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Recent polling from mid-August, including Suffolk University/Boston Globe and UMass Amherst surveys, shows incumbent Sen. Ed Markey widening his lead over Rep. Seth Moulton to double digits among likely Democratic primary voters ahead of the Sept. 1 contest, with Markey at 52-60% support versus Moulton’s 32-38%. This shift from tighter June and July results has reinforced trader expectations of a Markey victory, concentrating probabilities on his margin-of-victory ranges while elevating “Other” as the top outcome amid uncertainty over turnout, undecided voters, and exact spread. Markey’s advantages among progressives, women, and liberals, combined with his long record and higher trust ratings on key issues, have limited Moulton’s generational-change messaging despite debates and advertising. The race’s resolution hinges on final voter mobilization in the coming days.
The Massachusetts state primary is scheduled to be held on September 1, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Massachusetts Democratic Primary for U.S. Senator.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Commonwealth of Massachusetts, such as official statewide results published by the Massachusetts Secretary of the Commonwealth (https://www.sec.state.ma.us/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Massachusetts Democratic Primary for U.S. Senator.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Commonwealth of Massachusetts, such as official statewide results published by the Massachusetts Secretary of the Commonwealth (https://www.sec.state.ma.us/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
音量
$268終了日
2026/09/01マーケット開始日
Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling from mid-August, including Suffolk University/Boston Globe and UMass Amherst surveys, shows incumbent Sen. Ed Markey widening his lead over Rep. Seth Moulton to double digits among likely Democratic primary voters ahead of the Sept. 1 contest, with Markey at 52-60% support versus Moulton’s 32-38%. This shift from tighter June and July results has reinforced trader expectations of a Markey victory, concentrating probabilities on his margin-of-victory ranges while elevating “Other” as the top outcome amid uncertainty over turnout, undecided voters, and exact spread. Markey’s advantages among progressives, women, and liberals, combined with his long record and higher trust ratings on key issues, have limited Moulton’s generational-change messaging despite debates and advertising. The race’s resolution hinges on final voter mobilization in the coming days.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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