**Trader consensus positions Robert Kenyon (Reform UK) as the overwhelming favourite for second place in the 18 June Makerfield by-election, at 87.5%.** Andy Burnham (Labour) sits a distant second at 11.5%, with all other candidates below 2%. The constituency, a long-standing Labour seat in Greater Manchester, became vacant after incumbent Josh Simons resigned in May 2026 to enable Burnham’s candidacy as Greater Manchester mayor. Recent polls show a tight race between Burnham and Kenyon, a local plumber, with some surveys giving Burnham a narrow lead while generic ballot measures favour Reform. Tactical voting by Green and Liberal Democrat supporters is cited as a potential factor that could consolidate anti-Reform support behind Burnham. Kenyon’s high probability for second place reflects market expectations that Burnham will narrowly secure first, leaving Kenyon comfortably ahead of minor-party candidates. The outcome carries national implications for Labour leadership dynamics and Reform’s momentum ahead of future contests.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Robert Kenyon 88%
Andy Burnham 11.5%
Rebecca Shepherd 1.3%
Simon Finkelstein <1%
$236,226 Vol.
$236,226 Vol.
2026/06/18
Robert Kenyon
88%
Andy Burnham
12%
Rebecca Shepherd
1%
Simon Finkelstein
<1%
John Skipworth
<1%
Maria Deery
<1%
James Thomas Bryer
<1%
Robert Kenyon 88%
Andy Burnham 11.5%
Rebecca Shepherd 1.3%
Simon Finkelstein <1%
$236,226 Vol.
$236,226 Vol.
2026/06/18
Robert Kenyon
$7,621 Vol.
88%
Andy Burnham
$5,206 Vol.
12%
Rebecca Shepherd
$218,865 Vol.
1%
Simon Finkelstein
$1,374 Vol.
<1%
John Skipworth
$1,215 Vol.
<1%
Maria Deery
$788 Vol.
<1%
James Thomas Bryer
$1,158 Vol.
<1%
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Makerfield is expected to be held on June 18, 2026, following the announced resignation of incumbent Josh Simons.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second most valid votes in the Makerfield parliamentary by-election in 2026.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Wigan Council (https://www.wigan.gov.uk/).**Trader consensus positions Robert Kenyon (Reform UK) as the overwhelming favourite for second place in the 18 June Makerfield by-election, at 87.5%.** Andy Burnham (Labour) sits a distant second at 11.5%, with all other candidates below 2%.
The constituency, a long-standing Labour seat in Greater Manchester, became vacant after incumbent Josh Simons resigned in May 2026 to enable Burnham’s candidacy as Greater Manchester mayor. Recent polls show a tight race between Burnham and Kenyon, a local plumber, with some surveys giving Burnham a narrow lead while generic ballot measures favour Reform. Tactical voting by Green and Liberal Democrat supporters is cited as a potential factor that could consolidate anti-Reform support behind Burnham.
Kenyon’s high probability for second place reflects market expectations that Burnham will narrowly secure first, leaving Kenyon comfortably ahead of minor-party candidates. The outcome carries national implications for Labour leadership dynamics and Reform’s momentum ahead of future contests.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Makerfield is expected to be held on June 18, 2026, following the announced resignation of incumbent Josh Simons.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second most valid votes in the Makerfield parliamentary by-election in 2026.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Wigan Council (https://www.wigan.gov.uk/).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second most valid votes in the Makerfield parliamentary by-election in 2026.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Wigan Council (https://www.wigan.gov.uk/).
マーケット開始日： May 21, 2026, 1:42 PM ET
音量
$236,226終了日
2026/06/18マーケット開始日
May 21, 2026, 1:42 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Makerfield is expected to be held on June 18, 2026, following the announced resignation of incumbent Josh Simons.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second most valid votes in the Makerfield parliamentary by-election in 2026.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Wigan Council (https://www.wigan.gov.uk/).**Trader consensus positions Robert Kenyon (Reform UK) as the overwhelming favourite for second place in the 18 June Makerfield by-election, at 87.5%.** Andy Burnham (Labour) sits a distant second at 11.5%, with all other candidates below 2%.
The constituency, a long-standing Labour seat in Greater Manchester, became vacant after incumbent Josh Simons resigned in May 2026 to enable Burnham’s candidacy as Greater Manchester mayor. Recent polls show a tight race between Burnham and Kenyon, a local plumber, with some surveys giving Burnham a narrow lead while generic ballot measures favour Reform. Tactical voting by Green and Liberal Democrat supporters is cited as a potential factor that could consolidate anti-Reform support behind Burnham.
Kenyon’s high probability for second place reflects market expectations that Burnham will narrowly secure first, leaving Kenyon comfortably ahead of minor-party candidates. The outcome carries national implications for Labour leadership dynamics and Reform’s momentum ahead of future contests.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Makerfield is expected to be held on June 18, 2026, following the announced resignation of incumbent Josh Simons.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second most valid votes in the Makerfield parliamentary by-election in 2026.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Wigan Council (https://www.wigan.gov.uk/).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second most valid votes in the Makerfield parliamentary by-election in 2026.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Wigan Council (https://www.wigan.gov.uk/).
音量
$236,226終了日
2026/06/18マーケット開始日
May 21, 2026, 1:42 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader consensus positions Robert Kenyon (Reform UK) as the overwhelming favourite for second place in the 18 June Makerfield by-election, at 87.5%.** Andy Burnham (Labour) sits a distant second at 11.5%, with all other candidates below 2%. The constituency, a long-standing Labour seat in Greater Manchester, became vacant after incumbent Josh Simons resigned in May 2026 to enable Burnham’s candidacy as Greater Manchester mayor. Recent polls show a tight race between Burnham and Kenyon, a local plumber, with some surveys giving Burnham a narrow lead while generic ballot measures favour Reform. Tactical voting by Green and Liberal Democrat supporters is cited as a potential factor that could consolidate anti-Reform support behind Burnham. Kenyon’s high probability for second place reflects market expectations that Burnham will narrowly secure first, leaving Kenyon comfortably ahead of minor-party candidates. The outcome carries national implications for Labour leadership dynamics and Reform’s momentum ahead of future contests.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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