Recent forecast model consensus from sources like GFS points to clear skies and light northeasterly winds over Madrid through September 12, supporting overnight radiative cooling with minimum temperatures likely in the 15–18°C range, near the 1991–2020 climatological average low of 16°C for the date. This baseline, combined with the absence of significant frontal systems or cloud cover to moderate temperatures, underpins the market-implied odds favoring 11°C or below as the leading outcome. Traders appear to price in model spread and potential for enhanced cooling under calm conditions, while higher bins reflect the lower probability of warmer advection. Updated model runs and official AEMET guidance ahead of the date represent key variables that could shift these probabilities.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日9月12日のマドリードの最低気温は？
9月12日のマドリードの最低気温は？
11°C以下 87%
21℃以上 85%
13°C 40%
12°C 39%
新規
新規
2026/09/12
11°C以下
87%
12°C
39%
13°C
40%
14℃
27%
15℃
21%
16℃
21%
17℃
39%
18℃
38%
19℃
39%
20℃
38%
21℃以上
85%
11°C以下 87%
21℃以上 85%
13°C 40%
12°C 39%
新規
新規
2026/09/12
11°C以下
$0 Vol.
87%
12°C
$0 Vol.
39%
13°C
$0 Vol.
40%
14℃
$0 Vol.
27%
15℃
$0 Vol.
21%
16℃
$0 Vol.
21%
17℃
$0 Vol.
39%
18℃
$0 Vol.
38%
19℃
$0 Vol.
39%
20℃
$0 Vol.
38%
21℃以上
$0 Vol.
85%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast model consensus from sources like GFS points to clear skies and light northeasterly winds over Madrid through September 12, supporting overnight radiative cooling with minimum temperatures likely in the 15–18°C range, near the 1991–2020 climatological average low of 16°C for the date. This baseline, combined with the absence of significant frontal systems or cloud cover to moderate temperatures, underpins the market-implied odds favoring 11°C or below as the leading outcome. Traders appear to price in model spread and potential for enhanced cooling under calm conditions, while higher bins reflect the lower probability of warmer advection. Updated model runs and official AEMET guidance ahead of the date represent key variables that could shift these probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
マーケット開始日： Sep 10, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
音量
$0終了日
2026/09/12マーケット開始日
Sep 10, 2026, 12:30 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast model consensus from sources like GFS points to clear skies and light northeasterly winds over Madrid through September 12, supporting overnight radiative cooling with minimum temperatures likely in the 15–18°C range, near the 1991–2020 climatological average low of 16°C for the date. This baseline, combined with the absence of significant frontal systems or cloud cover to moderate temperatures, underpins the market-implied odds favoring 11°C or below as the leading outcome. Traders appear to price in model spread and potential for enhanced cooling under calm conditions, while higher bins reflect the lower probability of warmer advection. Updated model runs and official AEMET guidance ahead of the date represent key variables that could shift these probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
音量
$0終了日
2026/09/12マーケット開始日
Sep 10, 2026, 12:30 AM ETRecent forecast model consensus from sources like GFS points to clear skies and light northeasterly winds over Madrid through September 12, supporting overnight radiative cooling with minimum temperatures likely in the 15–18°C range, near the 1991–2020 climatological average low of 16°C for the date. This baseline, combined with the absence of significant frontal systems or cloud cover to moderate temperatures, underpins the market-implied odds favoring 11°C or below as the leading outcome. Traders appear to price in model spread and potential for enhanced cooling under calm conditions, while higher bins reflect the lower probability of warmer advection. Updated model runs and official AEMET guidance ahead of the date represent key variables that could shift these probabilities.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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