Japan’s 10-year government bond yield has climbed near 3% in September 2026 amid the Bank of Japan’s ongoing policy normalization, with the central bank poised to lift its short-term rate to 1.25% at the September meeting following the June increase to 1%. Elevated producer prices, up 7.6% year-over-year in August, combined with higher oil costs from Middle East tensions, yen depreciation, and AI-driven demand pressures, have reinforced expectations for underlying CPI to remain above the 2% target. Record fiscal budget requests under Prime Minister Takaichi add further upward pressure on yields through increased bond supply. These factors have driven the market-implied probability of a 3.0%+ close at year-end to 65.8%, reflecting trader consensus on a continued gradual rise in the policy rate toward neutral levels while monitoring incoming inflation data and global Treasury movements.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日3.0%+ 65.9%
2.8-3.0% 10.9%
2.2-2.4% 5.2%
2.6-2.8% 2.5%
$29,222 Vol.
$29,222 Vol.
2026/12/30
<2.0%
1%
2.0-2.2%
2%
2.2-2.4%
5%
2.4-2.6%
7%
2.6-2.8%
3%
2.8-3.0%
11%
3.0%+
66%
3.0%+ 65.9%
2.8-3.0% 10.9%
2.2-2.4% 5.2%
2.6-2.8% 2.5%
$29,222 Vol.
$29,222 Vol.
2026/12/30
<2.0%
$1,360 Vol.
1%
2.0-2.2%
$1,684 Vol.
2%
2.2-2.4%
$1,253 Vol.
5%
2.4-2.6%
$2,552 Vol.
7%
2.6-2.8%
$2,546 Vol.
3%
2.8-3.0%
$8,693 Vol.
11%
3.0%+
$11,134 Vol.
66%
This market will resolve according to the 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) yield on the last reported day of 2026, as reported by the Japanese Ministry of Finance.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Japanese Ministry of Finance’s “Interest Rate” data for Japanese Government Bonds found at (https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/index.htm). The resolution will be based on the value listed in the column labelled “10Y” in row corresponding to the latest reported date of 2026.
The latest reported date will be confirmed once the Japanese Ministry of Finance publishes its first 10-year government bond yield for a 2027 date. The last 2026 date published before that point will be treated as the final reported date of 2026. If the Ministry of Finance has not published any 2027 yield data for the specified date by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve using the most recent 2026 yield published as of that date.Japan’s 10-year government bond yield has climbed near 3% in September 2026 amid the Bank of Japan’s ongoing policy normalization, with the central bank poised to lift its short-term rate to 1.25% at the September meeting following the June increase to 1%. Elevated producer prices, up 7.6% year-over-year in August, combined with higher oil costs from Middle East tensions, yen depreciation, and AI-driven demand pressures, have reinforced expectations for underlying CPI to remain above the 2% target. Record fiscal budget requests under Prime Minister Takaichi add further upward pressure on yields through increased bond supply. These factors have driven the market-implied probability of a 3.0%+ close at year-end to 65.8%, reflecting trader consensus on a continued gradual rise in the policy rate toward neutral levels while monitoring incoming inflation data and global Treasury movements.
This market will resolve according to the 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) yield on the last reported day of 2026, as reported by the Japanese Ministry of Finance.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Japanese Ministry of Finance’s “Interest Rate” data for Japanese Government Bonds found at (https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/index.htm). The resolution will be based on the value listed in the column labelled “10Y” in row corresponding to the latest reported date of 2026.
The latest reported date will be confirmed once the Japanese Ministry of Finance publishes its first 10-year government bond yield for a 2027 date. The last 2026 date published before that point will be treated as the final reported date of 2026. If the Ministry of Finance has not published any 2027 yield data for the specified date by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve using the most recent 2026 yield published as of that date.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Japanese Ministry of Finance’s “Interest Rate” data for Japanese Government Bonds found at (https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/index.htm). The resolution will be based on the value listed in the column labelled “10Y” in row corresponding to the latest reported date of 2026.
The latest reported date will be confirmed once the Japanese Ministry of Finance publishes its first 10-year government bond yield for a 2027 date. The last 2026 date published before that point will be treated as the final reported date of 2026. If the Ministry of Finance has not published any 2027 yield data for the specified date by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve using the most recent 2026 yield published as of that date.
マーケット開始日： Jun 10, 2026, 4:35 PM ET
音量
$29,222終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Jun 10, 2026, 4:35 PM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) yield on the last reported day of 2026, as reported by the Japanese Ministry of Finance.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Japanese Ministry of Finance’s “Interest Rate” data for Japanese Government Bonds found at (https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/index.htm). The resolution will be based on the value listed in the column labelled “10Y” in row corresponding to the latest reported date of 2026.
The latest reported date will be confirmed once the Japanese Ministry of Finance publishes its first 10-year government bond yield for a 2027 date. The last 2026 date published before that point will be treated as the final reported date of 2026. If the Ministry of Finance has not published any 2027 yield data for the specified date by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve using the most recent 2026 yield published as of that date.Japan’s 10-year government bond yield has climbed near 3% in September 2026 amid the Bank of Japan’s ongoing policy normalization, with the central bank poised to lift its short-term rate to 1.25% at the September meeting following the June increase to 1%. Elevated producer prices, up 7.6% year-over-year in August, combined with higher oil costs from Middle East tensions, yen depreciation, and AI-driven demand pressures, have reinforced expectations for underlying CPI to remain above the 2% target. Record fiscal budget requests under Prime Minister Takaichi add further upward pressure on yields through increased bond supply. These factors have driven the market-implied probability of a 3.0%+ close at year-end to 65.8%, reflecting trader consensus on a continued gradual rise in the policy rate toward neutral levels while monitoring incoming inflation data and global Treasury movements.
This market will resolve according to the 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) yield on the last reported day of 2026, as reported by the Japanese Ministry of Finance.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Japanese Ministry of Finance’s “Interest Rate” data for Japanese Government Bonds found at (https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/index.htm). The resolution will be based on the value listed in the column labelled “10Y” in row corresponding to the latest reported date of 2026.
The latest reported date will be confirmed once the Japanese Ministry of Finance publishes its first 10-year government bond yield for a 2027 date. The last 2026 date published before that point will be treated as the final reported date of 2026. If the Ministry of Finance has not published any 2027 yield data for the specified date by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve using the most recent 2026 yield published as of that date.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Japanese Ministry of Finance’s “Interest Rate” data for Japanese Government Bonds found at (https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/index.htm). The resolution will be based on the value listed in the column labelled “10Y” in row corresponding to the latest reported date of 2026.
The latest reported date will be confirmed once the Japanese Ministry of Finance publishes its first 10-year government bond yield for a 2027 date. The last 2026 date published before that point will be treated as the final reported date of 2026. If the Ministry of Finance has not published any 2027 yield data for the specified date by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve using the most recent 2026 yield published as of that date.
音量
$29,222終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Jun 10, 2026, 4:35 PM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...Japan’s 10-year government bond yield has climbed near 3% in September 2026 amid the Bank of Japan’s ongoing policy normalization, with the central bank poised to lift its short-term rate to 1.25% at the September meeting following the June increase to 1%. Elevated producer prices, up 7.6% year-over-year in August, combined with higher oil costs from Middle East tensions, yen depreciation, and AI-driven demand pressures, have reinforced expectations for underlying CPI to remain above the 2% target. Record fiscal budget requests under Prime Minister Takaichi add further upward pressure on yields through increased bond supply. These factors have driven the market-implied probability of a 3.0%+ close at year-end to 65.8%, reflecting trader consensus on a continued gradual rise in the policy rate toward neutral levels while monitoring incoming inflation data and global Treasury movements.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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