Recent Houthi territorial advances along Yemen’s Red Sea coast, including the September 2026 seizure of Mokha port and strategic islands in the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, have intensified attacks on Saudi infrastructure and shipping, driving diplomatic responses from European powers. The UK has condemned the Iran-backed group’s actions at the UN Security Council, reaffirmed support for the Yemeni government and peace process, and dispatched military advisers to Riyadh while weighing further operational assistance amid economic risks from disrupted trade. France has reiterated commitments to maritime security operations such as ASPIDES and condemned vessel attacks, while Germany has issued similar statements backing the legitimate Yemeni authorities and calling for de-escalation. No direct strikes by these nations have occurred in the past month, with focus remaining on sanctions enforcement, naval patrols, and coalition diplomacy rather than unilateral military intervention. Upcoming UN meetings and Saudi requests could influence any shift toward kinetic involvement.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日新規
2026/09/30
9月30日
3%
10月31日
3%
12月31日
6%
$3,103 Vol.
9月30日
$471 Vol.
3%
10月31日
$1,289 Vol.
3%
12月31日
$1,342 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if France, the United Kingdom, or Germany takes a qualifying military action against Yemen by the specified date, 11:59 PM Yemen Standard Time. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.”
A qualifying military action by any one of France, the United Kingdom, or Germany will be sufficient for this market to resolve to “Yes.”
A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by France, the United Kingdom, or Germany, that directly impacts Yemen. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.
The qualifying military action must be carried out by the armed forces of France, the United Kingdom, or Germany. Actions carried out by private military contractors, mercenaries, or proxy forces will not qualify. Where a qualifying action is carried out in the course of a coalition or multinational operation, it will qualify only if the armed forces of France, the United Kingdom, or Germany directly conducted the strike.
The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:
Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact;
Surface-to-air missile strikes;
Small-arms fire;
Ground incursions;
Cyber operations;
Naval gunfire and artillery fire;
Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);
Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;
Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.
Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Yemen do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred.
“Yemen” refers to the terrestrial territory of Yemen, including its internal waters. Yemen’s maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Yemen as of market creation will qualify.
The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Yemen Standard Time) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of France, the United Kingdom, Germany, and Yemen and a consensus of credible reporting.Recent Houthi territorial advances along Yemen’s Red Sea coast, including the September 2026 seizure of Mokha port and strategic islands in the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, have intensified attacks on Saudi infrastructure and shipping, driving diplomatic responses from European powers. The UK has condemned the Iran-backed group’s actions at the UN Security Council, reaffirmed support for the Yemeni government and peace process, and dispatched military advisers to Riyadh while weighing further operational assistance amid economic risks from disrupted trade. France has reiterated commitments to maritime security operations such as ASPIDES and condemned vessel attacks, while Germany has issued similar statements backing the legitimate Yemeni authorities and calling for de-escalation. No direct strikes by these nations have occurred in the past month, with focus remaining on sanctions enforcement, naval patrols, and coalition diplomacy rather than unilateral military intervention. Upcoming UN meetings and Saudi requests could influence any shift toward kinetic involvement.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if France, the United Kingdom, or Germany takes a qualifying military action against Yemen by the specified date, 11:59 PM Yemen Standard Time. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.”
A qualifying military action by any one of France, the United Kingdom, or Germany will be sufficient for this market to resolve to “Yes.”
A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by France, the United Kingdom, or Germany, that directly impacts Yemen. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.
The qualifying military action must be carried out by the armed forces of France, the United Kingdom, or Germany. Actions carried out by private military contractors, mercenaries, or proxy forces will not qualify. Where a qualifying action is carried out in the course of a coalition or multinational operation, it will qualify only if the armed forces of France, the United Kingdom, or Germany directly conducted the strike.
The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:
Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact;
Surface-to-air missile strikes;
Small-arms fire;
Ground incursions;
Cyber operations;
Naval gunfire and artillery fire;
Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);
Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;
Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.
Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Yemen do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred.
“Yemen” refers to the terrestrial territory of Yemen, including its internal waters. Yemen’s maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Yemen as of market creation will qualify.
The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Yemen Standard Time) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of France, the United Kingdom, Germany, and Yemen and a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying military action by any one of France, the United Kingdom, or Germany will be sufficient for this market to resolve to “Yes.”
A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by France, the United Kingdom, or Germany, that directly impacts Yemen. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.
The qualifying military action must be carried out by the armed forces of France, the United Kingdom, or Germany. Actions carried out by private military contractors, mercenaries, or proxy forces will not qualify. Where a qualifying action is carried out in the course of a coalition or multinational operation, it will qualify only if the armed forces of France, the United Kingdom, or Germany directly conducted the strike.
The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:
Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact;
Surface-to-air missile strikes;
Small-arms fire;
Ground incursions;
Cyber operations;
Naval gunfire and artillery fire;
Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);
Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;
Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.
Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Yemen do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred.
“Yemen” refers to the terrestrial territory of Yemen, including its internal waters. Yemen’s maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Yemen as of market creation will qualify.
The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Yemen Standard Time) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of France, the United Kingdom, Germany, and Yemen and a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Sep 15, 2026, 10:24 PM ET
音量
$3,103終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Sep 15, 2026, 10:24 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if France, the United Kingdom, or Germany takes a qualifying military action against Yemen by the specified date, 11:59 PM Yemen Standard Time. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.”
A qualifying military action by any one of France, the United Kingdom, or Germany will be sufficient for this market to resolve to “Yes.”
A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by France, the United Kingdom, or Germany, that directly impacts Yemen. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.
The qualifying military action must be carried out by the armed forces of France, the United Kingdom, or Germany. Actions carried out by private military contractors, mercenaries, or proxy forces will not qualify. Where a qualifying action is carried out in the course of a coalition or multinational operation, it will qualify only if the armed forces of France, the United Kingdom, or Germany directly conducted the strike.
The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:
Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact;
Surface-to-air missile strikes;
Small-arms fire;
Ground incursions;
Cyber operations;
Naval gunfire and artillery fire;
Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);
Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;
Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.
Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Yemen do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred.
“Yemen” refers to the terrestrial territory of Yemen, including its internal waters. Yemen’s maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Yemen as of market creation will qualify.
The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Yemen Standard Time) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of France, the United Kingdom, Germany, and Yemen and a consensus of credible reporting.Recent Houthi territorial advances along Yemen’s Red Sea coast, including the September 2026 seizure of Mokha port and strategic islands in the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, have intensified attacks on Saudi infrastructure and shipping, driving diplomatic responses from European powers. The UK has condemned the Iran-backed group’s actions at the UN Security Council, reaffirmed support for the Yemeni government and peace process, and dispatched military advisers to Riyadh while weighing further operational assistance amid economic risks from disrupted trade. France has reiterated commitments to maritime security operations such as ASPIDES and condemned vessel attacks, while Germany has issued similar statements backing the legitimate Yemeni authorities and calling for de-escalation. No direct strikes by these nations have occurred in the past month, with focus remaining on sanctions enforcement, naval patrols, and coalition diplomacy rather than unilateral military intervention. Upcoming UN meetings and Saudi requests could influence any shift toward kinetic involvement.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if France, the United Kingdom, or Germany takes a qualifying military action against Yemen by the specified date, 11:59 PM Yemen Standard Time. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.”
A qualifying military action by any one of France, the United Kingdom, or Germany will be sufficient for this market to resolve to “Yes.”
A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by France, the United Kingdom, or Germany, that directly impacts Yemen. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.
The qualifying military action must be carried out by the armed forces of France, the United Kingdom, or Germany. Actions carried out by private military contractors, mercenaries, or proxy forces will not qualify. Where a qualifying action is carried out in the course of a coalition or multinational operation, it will qualify only if the armed forces of France, the United Kingdom, or Germany directly conducted the strike.
The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:
Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact;
Surface-to-air missile strikes;
Small-arms fire;
Ground incursions;
Cyber operations;
Naval gunfire and artillery fire;
Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);
Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;
Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.
Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Yemen do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred.
“Yemen” refers to the terrestrial territory of Yemen, including its internal waters. Yemen’s maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Yemen as of market creation will qualify.
The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Yemen Standard Time) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of France, the United Kingdom, Germany, and Yemen and a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying military action by any one of France, the United Kingdom, or Germany will be sufficient for this market to resolve to “Yes.”
A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by France, the United Kingdom, or Germany, that directly impacts Yemen. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.
The qualifying military action must be carried out by the armed forces of France, the United Kingdom, or Germany. Actions carried out by private military contractors, mercenaries, or proxy forces will not qualify. Where a qualifying action is carried out in the course of a coalition or multinational operation, it will qualify only if the armed forces of France, the United Kingdom, or Germany directly conducted the strike.
The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:
Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact;
Surface-to-air missile strikes;
Small-arms fire;
Ground incursions;
Cyber operations;
Naval gunfire and artillery fire;
Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);
Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;
Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.
Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Yemen do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred.
“Yemen” refers to the terrestrial territory of Yemen, including its internal waters. Yemen’s maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Yemen as of market creation will qualify.
The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Yemen Standard Time) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of France, the United Kingdom, Germany, and Yemen and a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$3,103終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Sep 15, 2026, 10:24 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...Recent Houthi territorial advances along Yemen’s Red Sea coast, including the September 2026 seizure of Mokha port and strategic islands in the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, have intensified attacks on Saudi infrastructure and shipping, driving diplomatic responses from European powers. The UK has condemned the Iran-backed group’s actions at the UN Security Council, reaffirmed support for the Yemeni government and peace process, and dispatched military advisers to Riyadh while weighing further operational assistance amid economic risks from disrupted trade. France has reiterated commitments to maritime security operations such as ASPIDES and condemned vessel attacks, while Germany has issued similar statements backing the legitimate Yemeni authorities and calling for de-escalation. No direct strikes by these nations have occurred in the past month, with focus remaining on sanctions enforcement, naval patrols, and coalition diplomacy rather than unilateral military intervention. Upcoming UN meetings and Saudi requests could influence any shift toward kinetic involvement.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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