A strengthening super El Niño, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperatures at +2.6°C as of late August 2026 and over 90% odds of a very strong event peaking in fall or early winter, stands as the dominant driver of trader sentiment. NOAA and dynamical models indicate this will favor above-normal temperatures across much of the northern United States and Canada through the season, potentially delaying measurable snowfall (0.1 inch or greater) relative to historical medians from NOAA data. Wetter conditions are projected farther south, while northern storm tracks weaken. Key upcoming inputs include updated NOAA Climate Prediction Center outlooks, ECMWF and UKMO seasonal runs, and weekly ENSO monitoring that could shift implied probabilities for early versus late first-snow outcomes in key markets.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日2026年シーズン初雪

10月31日までのニューヨーク州バッファロー
34%

デンバー(コロラド州)10月31日まで
60%

ミネアポリス(ミネソタ州) 10月31日まで
57%

ユタ州ソルトレイクシティ:10月31日まで
51%

ボストン(マサチューセッツ州) 11月15日まで
59%

ニューヨーク州バッファロー 11月15日まで
94%

イリノイ州シカゴ 11月15日まで
63%

デンバー(コロラド州) 11月15日まで
74%

11月15日までにデトロイト(ミシガン州)
91%

インディアナポリス(IN)11月15日まで
70%

カンザスシティ(ミズーリ州)11月15日まで
31%

ミネアポリス(MN) 11月15日まで
70%

ペンシルベニア州ピッツバーグ 11月15日まで
67%

ユタ州ソルトレイクシティ 11月15日まで
87%

マサチューセッツ州ボストン 11月30日まで
73%

ニューヨーク州バッファロー 11月30日まで
94%

イリノイ州シカゴ 11月30日まで
73%

11月30日までにオハイオ州シンシナティ
83%

テキサス州ダラス 11月30日まで
29%

コロラド州デンバー 11月30日まで
99%

デトロイト(ミシガン州) 11月30日まで
89%

インディアナポリス(IN) 11月30日まで
94%

ミズーリ州カンザスシティ(11月30日まで)
72%

ミネアポリス(ミネソタ州)、11月30日まで
93%

ナッシュビル(テネシー州)11月30日まで
29%

ニューヨーク市(NY)11月30日まで
68%

11月30日までのフィラデルフィア(PA)
43%

11月30日までにペンシルベニア州ピッツバーグ
77%

ユタ州ソルトレイクシティ 11月30日まで
88%

セントルイス(ミズーリ州)11月30日まで
66%

ワシントンD.C.(11月30日まで)
43%
$6,002 Vol.

10月31日までのニューヨーク州バッファロー
34%

デンバー(コロラド州)10月31日まで
60%

ミネアポリス(ミネソタ州) 10月31日まで
57%

ユタ州ソルトレイクシティ:10月31日まで
51%

ボストン(マサチューセッツ州) 11月15日まで
59%

ニューヨーク州バッファロー 11月15日まで
94%

イリノイ州シカゴ 11月15日まで
63%

デンバー(コロラド州) 11月15日まで
74%

11月15日までにデトロイト(ミシガン州)
91%

インディアナポリス(IN)11月15日まで
70%

カンザスシティ(ミズーリ州)11月15日まで
31%

ミネアポリス(MN) 11月15日まで
70%

ペンシルベニア州ピッツバーグ 11月15日まで
67%

ユタ州ソルトレイクシティ 11月15日まで
87%

マサチューセッツ州ボストン 11月30日まで
73%

ニューヨーク州バッファロー 11月30日まで
94%

イリノイ州シカゴ 11月30日まで
73%

11月30日までにオハイオ州シンシナティ
83%

テキサス州ダラス 11月30日まで
29%

コロラド州デンバー 11月30日まで
99%

デトロイト(ミシガン州) 11月30日まで
89%

インディアナポリス(IN) 11月30日まで
94%

ミズーリ州カンザスシティ(11月30日まで)
72%

ミネアポリス(ミネソタ州)、11月30日まで
93%

ナッシュビル(テネシー州)11月30日まで
29%

ニューヨーク市(NY)11月30日まで
68%

11月30日までのフィラデルフィア(PA)
43%

11月30日までにペンシルベニア州ピッツバーグ
77%

ユタ州ソルトレイクシティ 11月30日まで
88%

セントルイス(ミズーリ州)11月30日まで
66%

ワシントンD.C.(11月30日まで)
43%
Any amount of snowfall qualifies, including a report of "T" (trace) - snow observed but too little to measure. Once snowfall is reported, this market resolves "Yes" immediately, without waiting for the rest of the window. This market resolves "No" only if no snowfall is reported for any day of the window.
The observation day is the National Weather Service climate day at KBUF (midnight to midnight local time, America/New_York).
Resolution is based on the station's first published snowfall figure for each day, as given in the first final Daily Climate Report for that day. Intermediate reports issued during the day are not used. Subsequent revisions or corrections will not be considered; the first published value is final. A report whose snowfall value is missing (for example, shown as "M") does not count as a published value; the snowfall figure for that day will be taken from the first subsequent report that includes one. If a day's snowfall value is missing but the month-to-date or season-to-date snowfall total in that day's final report is higher than in the previous day's final report, snow fell on that day and this market resolves "Yes". This market resolves as soon as its outcome is determined - "Yes" as soon as any day's report shows snowfall, or "No" as soon as every day of the window has a published snowfall figure and every figure is zero. There is no waiting period. If any day's snowfall figure remains unpublished, the market will remain open until the earlier of the figure being published or the 3rd day after the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, at which point any such day is treated as zero snowfall.
The resolution source for this market is the NWS Daily Climate Report for KBUF, issued as product CLIBUF. That page shows the latest report only; past daily reports are archived on the Iowa Environmental Mesonet at https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/list.phtml?by=pil&pil=CLIBUF.
マーケット開始日: Sep 2, 2026, 4:27 PM ET
Any amount of snowfall qualifies, including a report of "T" (trace) - snow observed but too little to measure. Once snowfall is reported, this market resolves "Yes" immediately, without waiting for the rest of the window. This market resolves "No" only if no snowfall is reported for any day of the window.
The observation day is the National Weather Service climate day at KBUF (midnight to midnight local time, America/New_York).
Resolution is based on the station's first published snowfall figure for each day, as given in the first final Daily Climate Report for that day. Intermediate reports issued during the day are not used. Subsequent revisions or corrections will not be considered; the first published value is final. A report whose snowfall value is missing (for example, shown as "M") does not count as a published value; the snowfall figure for that day will be taken from the first subsequent report that includes one. If a day's snowfall value is missing but the month-to-date or season-to-date snowfall total in that day's final report is higher than in the previous day's final report, snow fell on that day and this market resolves "Yes". This market resolves as soon as its outcome is determined - "Yes" as soon as any day's report shows snowfall, or "No" as soon as every day of the window has a published snowfall figure and every figure is zero. There is no waiting period. If any day's snowfall figure remains unpublished, the market will remain open until the earlier of the figure being published or the 3rd day after the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, at which point any such day is treated as zero snowfall.
The resolution source for this market is the NWS Daily Climate Report for KBUF, issued as product CLIBUF. That page shows the latest report only; past daily reports are archived on the Iowa Environmental Mesonet at https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/list.phtml?by=pil&pil=CLIBUF.
A strengthening super El Niño, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperatures at +2.6°C as of late August 2026 and over 90% odds of a very strong event peaking in fall or early winter, stands as the dominant driver of trader sentiment. NOAA and dynamical models indicate this will favor above-normal temperatures across much of the northern United States and Canada through the season, potentially delaying measurable snowfall (0.1 inch or greater) relative to historical medians from NOAA data. Wetter conditions are projected farther south, while northern storm tracks weaken. Key upcoming inputs include updated NOAA Climate Prediction Center outlooks, ECMWF and UKMO seasonal runs, and weekly ENSO monitoring that could shift implied probabilities for early versus late first-snow outcomes in key markets.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日


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