Recent Middle East tensions have sustained elevated energy prices, pushing euro area headline inflation to projected 3.0% for 2026 with a Q4 peak near 3.6% and prompting the ECB’s September hike to a 2.50% deposit rate. Eurozone growth has proven more resilient than expected, with upward revisions to 0.9% for 2026, while core pressures and wage trends remain contained. Traders price a narrow edge for one additional 25 bp move by the December Governing Council meeting because incoming data on energy costs, inflation pass-through, and labor market conditions remain fluid, and the ECB has emphasized a meeting-by-meeting, data-dependent path without pre-commitment. An October decision and fresh projections could widen the gap between a further hike and a hold.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日25ベーシスポイント利上げ 70%
据え置き 17%
25ベーシスポイントの利下げ 9.5%
50ベーシスポイント以上の利上げ 6%
新規
新規
2026/12/17
50ベーシスポイント以上の利下げ
3%
25ベーシスポイントの利下げ
10%
据え置き
17%
25ベーシスポイント利上げ
70%
50ベーシスポイント以上の利上げ
6%
25ベーシスポイント利上げ 70%
据え置き 17%
25ベーシスポイントの利下げ 9.5%
50ベーシスポイント以上の利上げ 6%
新規
新規
2026/12/17
50ベーシスポイント以上の利下げ
$435 Vol.
3%
25ベーシスポイントの利下げ
$224 Vol.
10%
据え置き
$468 Vol.
17%
25ベーシスポイント利上げ
$2,813 Vol.
70%
50ベーシスポイント以上の利上げ
$255 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the deposit facility rate resulting from the December 2026 meeting of the European Central Bank, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its December 2026 meeting, scheduled for December 16-17, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's December 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.Recent Middle East tensions have sustained elevated energy prices, pushing euro area headline inflation to projected 3.0% for 2026 with a Q4 peak near 3.6% and prompting the ECB’s September hike to a 2.50% deposit rate. Eurozone growth has proven more resilient than expected, with upward revisions to 0.9% for 2026, while core pressures and wage trends remain contained. Traders price a narrow edge for one additional 25 bp move by the December Governing Council meeting because incoming data on energy costs, inflation pass-through, and labor market conditions remain fluid, and the ECB has emphasized a meeting-by-meeting, data-dependent path without pre-commitment. An October decision and fresh projections could widen the gap between a further hike and a hold.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the deposit facility rate resulting from the December 2026 meeting of the European Central Bank, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its December 2026 meeting, scheduled for December 16-17, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's December 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its December 2026 meeting, scheduled for December 16-17, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's December 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
マーケット開始日： Sep 14, 2026, 6:12 PM ET
音量
$4,195終了日
2026/12/17マーケット開始日
Sep 14, 2026, 6:12 PM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the deposit facility rate resulting from the December 2026 meeting of the European Central Bank, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its December 2026 meeting, scheduled for December 16-17, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's December 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.Recent Middle East tensions have sustained elevated energy prices, pushing euro area headline inflation to projected 3.0% for 2026 with a Q4 peak near 3.6% and prompting the ECB’s September hike to a 2.50% deposit rate. Eurozone growth has proven more resilient than expected, with upward revisions to 0.9% for 2026, while core pressures and wage trends remain contained. Traders price a narrow edge for one additional 25 bp move by the December Governing Council meeting because incoming data on energy costs, inflation pass-through, and labor market conditions remain fluid, and the ECB has emphasized a meeting-by-meeting, data-dependent path without pre-commitment. An October decision and fresh projections could widen the gap between a further hike and a hold.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the deposit facility rate resulting from the December 2026 meeting of the European Central Bank, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its December 2026 meeting, scheduled for December 16-17, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's December 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its December 2026 meeting, scheduled for December 16-17, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's December 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
音量
$4,195終了日
2026/12/17マーケット開始日
Sep 14, 2026, 6:12 PM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...Recent Middle East tensions have sustained elevated energy prices, pushing euro area headline inflation to projected 3.0% for 2026 with a Q4 peak near 3.6% and prompting the ECB’s September hike to a 2.50% deposit rate. Eurozone growth has proven more resilient than expected, with upward revisions to 0.9% for 2026, while core pressures and wage trends remain contained. Traders price a narrow edge for one additional 25 bp move by the December Governing Council meeting because incoming data on energy costs, inflation pass-through, and labor market conditions remain fluid, and the ECB has emphasized a meeting-by-meeting, data-dependent path without pre-commitment. An October decision and fresh projections could widen the gap between a further hike and a hold.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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