France leads the 2026 FIFA World Cup winner market at 18.4% implied probability after opening with a 3-1 victory over Senegal featuring multiple goals from Kylian Mbappé, while Spain sits at 13.8% following a surprising 0-0 draw against Cape Verde that tempered expectations from its Euro 2024-winning squad. England (12.8%) and defending champion Argentina (11.6%) remain tightly clustered behind them after strong early results, including England’s 4-2 win over Croatia and Argentina’s emphatic performances. The bunched pricing among the top five reflects the expanded 48-team format, comparable squad depth and star power across elite European sides, and limited separation in group-stage results so far. Portugal, Brazil, and Germany trail but stay within striking distance as traders weigh recent form, injuries, and knockout-stage matchups that remain weeks away.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSpagna 100.0%
Nuova Zelanda <1%
Svizzera <1%
Inghilterra <1%
$4,327,988,660 Vol.
$4,327,988,660 Vol.
Spagna
Sì
Nuova Zelanda
No
Svizzera
No
Inghilterra
No
Francia
No
Corea del Sud
No
Haiti
No
Brasile
No
Giordania
No
Curaçao
No
Argentina
No
Germania
No
Colombia
No
Iran
No
Portogallo
No
Ghana
No
Paesi Bassi
No
Algeria
No
Bosnia-Erzegovina
No
Italia
No
Stati Uniti
No
Canada
No
Turchia
No
Uruguay
No
Messico
No
Paraguay
No
Scozia
No
Perù
No
Giappone
No
Norvegia
No
Tunisia
No
Ecuador
No
Uzbekistan
No
Marocco
No
Panama
No
Iraq
No
Sudafrica
No
Senegal
No
Costa d'Avorio
No
Repubblica Democratica del Congo
No
Capo Verde
No
Cechia
No
Qatar
No
Belgio
No
Australia
No
Arabia Saudita
No
Austria
No
Croazia
No
Egitto
No
Svezia
No
Spagna 100.0%
Nuova Zelanda <1%
Svizzera <1%
Inghilterra <1%
$4,327,988,660 Vol.
$4,327,988,660 Vol.
Spagna
Sì
Nuova Zelanda
No
Svizzera
No
Inghilterra
No
Francia
No
Corea del Sud
No
Haiti
No
Brasile
No
Giordania
No
Curaçao
No
Argentina
No
Germania
No
Colombia
No
Iran
No
Portogallo
No
Ghana
No
Paesi Bassi
No
Algeria
No
Bosnia-Erzegovina
No
Italia
No
Stati Uniti
No
Canada
No
Turchia
No
Uruguay
No
Messico
No
Paraguay
No
Scozia
No
Perù
No
Giappone
No
Norvegia
No
Tunisia
No
Ecuador
No
Uzbekistan
No
Marocco
No
Panama
No
Iraq
No
Sudafrica
No
Senegal
No
Costa d'Avorio
No
Repubblica Democratica del Congo
No
Capo Verde
No
Cechia
No
Qatar
No
Belgio
No
Australia
No
Arabia Saudita
No
Austria
No
Croazia
No
Egitto
No
Svezia
No
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Esito proposto: No
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: No
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Esito proposto: No
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: No
France leads the 2026 FIFA World Cup winner market at 18.4% implied probability after opening with a 3-1 victory over Senegal featuring multiple goals from Kylian Mbappé, while Spain sits at 13.8% following a surprising 0-0 draw against Cape Verde that tempered expectations from its Euro 2024-winning squad. England (12.8%) and defending champion Argentina (11.6%) remain tightly clustered behind them after strong early results, including England’s 4-2 win over Croatia and Argentina’s emphatic performances. The bunched pricing among the top five reflects the expanded 48-team format, comparable squad depth and star power across elite European sides, and limited separation in group-stage results so far. Portugal, Brazil, and Germany trail but stay within striking distance as traders weigh recent form, injuries, and knockout-stage matchups that remain weeks away.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Domande frequenti