Traders assign a 96.2% implied probability against US annexation of territory in 2026, reflecting the absence of active diplomatic negotiations, legislative proposals, or military developments that could lead to formal incorporation of new land. Postwar international norms, Senate treaty ratification requirements, and domestic policy focus on existing borders reinforce this consensus. Historical base rates show no successful US annexations in recent decades amid emphasis on alliances rather than expansion. Late-year geopolitical shifts, such as unexpected territorial cessions through treaties or conflict settlements, remain the primary scenarios that could still move the outcome before December 31.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSì
4% probabilità
$154,658 Vol.
$154,658 Vol.
30 dic 2026
Sì
4% probabilità
$154,658 Vol.
$154,658 Vol.
30 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States officially annexes any territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Annexation is defined as an official declaration or legal act by the US government claiming sovereignty over territory they were not claiming at the time of this market's creation.
Qualifying examples of annexation include the Louisiana Purchase, however instances where settlers claim administrative control over land without a formal annexation will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Traders assign a 96.2% implied probability against US annexation of territory in 2026, reflecting the absence of active diplomatic negotiations, legislative proposals, or military developments that could lead to formal incorporation of new land. Postwar international norms, Senate treaty ratification requirements, and domestic policy focus on existing borders reinforce this consensus. Historical base rates show no successful US annexations in recent decades amid emphasis on alliances rather than expansion. Late-year geopolitical shifts, such as unexpected territorial cessions through treaties or conflict settlements, remain the primary scenarios that could still move the outcome before December 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States officially annexes any territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Annexation is defined as an official declaration or legal act by the US government claiming sovereignty over territory they were not claiming at the time of this market's creation.
Qualifying examples of annexation include the Louisiana Purchase, however instances where settlers claim administrative control over land without a formal annexation will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Annexation is defined as an official declaration or legal act by the US government claiming sovereignty over territory they were not claiming at the time of this market's creation.
Qualifying examples of annexation include the Louisiana Purchase, however instances where settlers claim administrative control over land without a formal annexation will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Jan 6, 2026, 1:41 PM ET
Volume
$154,658Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 6, 2026, 1:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States officially annexes any territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Annexation is defined as an official declaration or legal act by the US government claiming sovereignty over territory they were not claiming at the time of this market's creation.
Qualifying examples of annexation include the Louisiana Purchase, however instances where settlers claim administrative control over land without a formal annexation will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Traders assign a 96.2% implied probability against US annexation of territory in 2026, reflecting the absence of active diplomatic negotiations, legislative proposals, or military developments that could lead to formal incorporation of new land. Postwar international norms, Senate treaty ratification requirements, and domestic policy focus on existing borders reinforce this consensus. Historical base rates show no successful US annexations in recent decades amid emphasis on alliances rather than expansion. Late-year geopolitical shifts, such as unexpected territorial cessions through treaties or conflict settlements, remain the primary scenarios that could still move the outcome before December 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States officially annexes any territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Annexation is defined as an official declaration or legal act by the US government claiming sovereignty over territory they were not claiming at the time of this market's creation.
Qualifying examples of annexation include the Louisiana Purchase, however instances where settlers claim administrative control over land without a formal annexation will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Annexation is defined as an official declaration or legal act by the US government claiming sovereignty over territory they were not claiming at the time of this market's creation.
Qualifying examples of annexation include the Louisiana Purchase, however instances where settlers claim administrative control over land without a formal annexation will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$154,658Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 6, 2026, 1:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 96.2% implied probability against US annexation of territory in 2026, reflecting the absence of active diplomatic negotiations, legislative proposals, or military developments that could lead to formal incorporation of new land. Postwar international norms, Senate treaty ratification requirements, and domestic policy focus on existing borders reinforce this consensus. Historical base rates show no successful US annexations in recent decades amid emphasis on alliances rather than expansion. Late-year geopolitical shifts, such as unexpected territorial cessions through treaties or conflict settlements, remain the primary scenarios that could still move the outcome before December 31.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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