Recent positive catalysts, including Clark County approval for up to 5,000 robotaxis in Las Vegas and plans for a European Tesla Semi debut, have lifted TSLA to $362.86 at the Aug 21 close, supporting the 49.0% market-implied probability on the $360-$365 range. Trader consensus reflects ongoing volatility from elevated capital expenditures exceeding $25 billion annually, Q2 free cash flow turning negative at -$1.1 billion, and a large China recall affecting nearly 3 million vehicles. With probabilities clustered tightly between 44.5% and 49.0% across multiple bands, the market prices in balanced near-term risks around current levels, tempered by analyst price targets near $395 amid heavy AI and autonomy investments.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato>$385 19%
<$340 16%
$355-$360 14%
$375-$380 14%
<$340
16%
$340-$345
13%
$345-$350
12%
$350-$355
10%
$355-$360
14%
$360-$365
13%
$365-$370
13%
$370-$375
13%
$375-$380
14%
$380-$385
13%
>$385
19%
>$385 19%
<$340 16%
$355-$360 14%
$375-$380 14%
<$340
16%
$340-$345
13%
$345-$350
12%
$350-$355
10%
$355-$360
14%
$360-$365
13%
$365-$370
13%
$370-$375
13%
$375-$380
14%
$380-$385
13%
>$385
19%
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding.
For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If the relevant session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of that shortened session will be used.
If the relevant day has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied.
The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle for Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.TSLA%2FUSD.
Mercato aperto: Aug 21, 2026, 6:00 PM ET
Fonte di risoluzione
https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.TSLA%2FUSDResolver
0x69c47De9D...If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding.
For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If the relevant session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of that shortened session will be used.
If the relevant day has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied.
The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle for Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.TSLA%2FUSD.
Fonte di risoluzione
https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.TSLA%2FUSDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent positive catalysts, including Clark County approval for up to 5,000 robotaxis in Las Vegas and plans for a European Tesla Semi debut, have lifted TSLA to $362.86 at the Aug 21 close, supporting the 49.0% market-implied probability on the $360-$365 range. Trader consensus reflects ongoing volatility from elevated capital expenditures exceeding $25 billion annually, Q2 free cash flow turning negative at -$1.1 billion, and a large China recall affecting nearly 3 million vehicles. With probabilities clustered tightly between 44.5% and 49.0% across multiple bands, the market prices in balanced near-term risks around current levels, tempered by analyst price targets near $395 amid heavy AI and autonomy investments.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato

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