Robust consensus forecasts from the Federal Reserve, IMF, and private economists project 2026 U.S. real GDP expansion of 1.9–2.4 percent, anchored by resilient consumer spending, AI-driven capital investment, and a labor market with unemployment near 4.3–4.5 percent. Recent data reinforce this outlook: Q2 growth registered 1.5 percent annualized, Q3 nowcasts hover around 2.3 percent, and leading indicators show no contraction signals. Elevated energy prices and tariff effects have tempered momentum but not derailed expansion, keeping recession odds below 25 percent in market-implied measures. Tail risks remain limited but include sharper geopolitical energy shocks, an abrupt AI capex reversal, or unexpected inflation spikes that could force tighter monetary policy and tip quarterly readings negative.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSì
2% probabilità
$33,280 Vol.
$33,280 Vol.
28 gen 2027
Sì
2% probabilità
$33,280 Vol.
$33,280 Vol.
28 gen 2027
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Robust consensus forecasts from the Federal Reserve, IMF, and private economists project 2026 U.S. real GDP expansion of 1.9–2.4 percent, anchored by resilient consumer spending, AI-driven capital investment, and a labor market with unemployment near 4.3–4.5 percent. Recent data reinforce this outlook: Q2 growth registered 1.5 percent annualized, Q3 nowcasts hover around 2.3 percent, and leading indicators show no contraction signals. Elevated energy prices and tariff effects have tempered momentum but not derailed expansion, keeping recession odds below 25 percent in market-implied measures. Tail risks remain limited but include sharper geopolitical energy shocks, an abrupt AI capex reversal, or unexpected inflation spikes that could force tighter monetary policy and tip quarterly readings negative.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Mercato aperto: Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ET
Volume
$33,280Data di fine
29 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Robust consensus forecasts from the Federal Reserve, IMF, and private economists project 2026 U.S. real GDP expansion of 1.9–2.4 percent, anchored by resilient consumer spending, AI-driven capital investment, and a labor market with unemployment near 4.3–4.5 percent. Recent data reinforce this outlook: Q2 growth registered 1.5 percent annualized, Q3 nowcasts hover around 2.3 percent, and leading indicators show no contraction signals. Elevated energy prices and tariff effects have tempered momentum but not derailed expansion, keeping recession odds below 25 percent in market-implied measures. Tail risks remain limited but include sharper geopolitical energy shocks, an abrupt AI capex reversal, or unexpected inflation spikes that could force tighter monetary policy and tip quarterly readings negative.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Volume
$33,280Data di fine
29 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...Robust consensus forecasts from the Federal Reserve, IMF, and private economists project 2026 U.S. real GDP expansion of 1.9–2.4 percent, anchored by resilient consumer spending, AI-driven capital investment, and a labor market with unemployment near 4.3–4.5 percent. Recent data reinforce this outlook: Q2 growth registered 1.5 percent annualized, Q3 nowcasts hover around 2.3 percent, and leading indicators show no contraction signals. Elevated energy prices and tariff effects have tempered momentum but not derailed expansion, keeping recession odds below 25 percent in market-implied measures. Tail risks remain limited but include sharper geopolitical energy shocks, an abrupt AI capex reversal, or unexpected inflation spikes that could force tighter monetary policy and tip quarterly readings negative.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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