Democratic nominees hold consistent polling leads in both the open Senate and gubernatorial races following the August 4 primaries, with Abdul El-Sayed edging Mike Rogers by 2–5 points in recent surveys and Jocelyn Benson ahead of John James by 5–8 points on average. These advantages in a state that narrowly favored Republicans in the 2024 presidential election have shaped trader consensus around a Democratic sweep as the most probable combined outcome. The Senate contest remains a toss-up in most ratings, while the governor race leans Democratic, limiting Republican sweep probabilities. No major late developments have altered the fundamentals in the past month, though individual race volatility could still shift split-ticket scenarios before November.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoVittoria a valanga dei Dem 65%
I Dem vincono il Governatore, i Rep vincono il Senato 30%
Vittoria totale dei repubblicani 7%
I repubblicani vincono il governatore, i democratici vincono il senato 1.1%
$10,933 Vol.
$10,933 Vol.
Vittoria a valanga dei Dem
65%
I Dem vincono il Governatore, i Rep vincono il Senato
30%
Vittoria totale dei repubblicani
7%
I repubblicani vincono il governatore, i democratici vincono il senato
1%
Vittoria a valanga dei Dem 65%
I Dem vincono il Governatore, i Rep vincono il Senato 30%
Vittoria totale dei repubblicani 7%
I repubblicani vincono il governatore, i democratici vincono il senato 1.1%
$10,933 Vol.
$10,933 Vol.
Vittoria a valanga dei Dem
65%
I Dem vincono il Governatore, i Rep vincono il Senato
30%
Vittoria totale dei repubblicani
7%
I repubblicani vincono il governatore, i democratici vincono il senato
1%
A candidate will be considered to represent a party by their ballot-listed affiliation or if they are the nominee of that party. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
If the results of these elections are not conclusively known by March 31, 2027, or if an independent or third-party candidate wins one of these elections, this market will resolve to "Other".
For purposes of this market, a "sweep" is when a party wins both races.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called the relevant Senate and Gubernatorial elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
Mercato aperto: Aug 11, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
Risolutore
0x69c47De9D...A candidate will be considered to represent a party by their ballot-listed affiliation or if they are the nominee of that party. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
If the results of these elections are not conclusively known by March 31, 2027, or if an independent or third-party candidate wins one of these elections, this market will resolve to "Other".
For purposes of this market, a "sweep" is when a party wins both races.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called the relevant Senate and Gubernatorial elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
Risolutore
0x69c47De9D...Democratic nominees hold consistent polling leads in both the open Senate and gubernatorial races following the August 4 primaries, with Abdul El-Sayed edging Mike Rogers by 2–5 points in recent surveys and Jocelyn Benson ahead of John James by 5–8 points on average. These advantages in a state that narrowly favored Republicans in the 2024 presidential election have shaped trader consensus around a Democratic sweep as the most probable combined outcome. The Senate contest remains a toss-up in most ratings, while the governor race leans Democratic, limiting Republican sweep probabilities. No major late developments have altered the fundamentals in the past month, though individual race volatility could still shift split-ticket scenarios before November.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato



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