**Trader sentiment for Madrid’s lowest temperature on September 5, 2026, centers on an elevated overnight minimum driven by a persistent warm, dry air mass under high pressure.** Current model consensus from sources including WeatherBug, Globalmeteo, Yr.no, and ilMeteo.it shows daytime highs of 34–36 °C and overnight lows of 22–27 °C, with early-morning readings frequently near 23–25 °C. Light northeast to variable winds, partly cloudy skies, and low humidity limit radiative cooling, while Madrid’s urban heat island further supports milder minima. Historical September averages place the typical low near 17 °C, but the ongoing warm anomaly—consistent with recent September patterns—has shifted expectations upward. The 58.5 % market-implied probability on 24 °C or below aligns with the lower end of forecast ranges, while the 28 % on exactly 25 °C captures the central tendency. Higher outcomes receive lower weight because models show little risk of significant cooling before resolution. No major forecast shifts have occurred in the past 24–48 hours; the next official guidance from agencies such as AEMET or updated model runs will provide the primary near-term catalyst for any probability adjustments.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLa temperatura più bassa di Madrid il 5 settembre?
La temperatura più bassa di Madrid il 5 settembre?
24°C o inferiore 55%
25°C 28%
26°C 17%
27°C <1%
NUOVO
NUOVO
5 set 2026
24°C o inferiore
55%
25°C
28%
26°C
17%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
<1%
33°C
<1%
34°C o superiore
<1%
24°C o inferiore 55%
25°C 28%
26°C 17%
27°C <1%
NUOVO
NUOVO
5 set 2026
24°C o inferiore
$14 Vol.
55%
25°C
$14 Vol.
28%
26°C
$0 Vol.
17%
27°C
$20 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$20 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$20 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$20 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$20 Vol.
<1%
32°C
$20 Vol.
<1%
33°C
$20 Vol.
<1%
34°C o superiore
$20 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader sentiment for Madrid’s lowest temperature on September 5, 2026, centers on an elevated overnight minimum driven by a persistent warm, dry air mass under high pressure.**
Current model consensus from sources including WeatherBug, Globalmeteo, Yr.no, and ilMeteo.it shows daytime highs of 34–36 °C and overnight lows of 22–27 °C, with early-morning readings frequently near 23–25 °C. Light northeast to variable winds, partly cloudy skies, and low humidity limit radiative cooling, while Madrid’s urban heat island further supports milder minima. Historical September averages place the typical low near 17 °C, but the ongoing warm anomaly—consistent with recent September patterns—has shifted expectations upward.
The 58.5 % market-implied probability on 24 °C or below aligns with the lower end of forecast ranges, while the 28 % on exactly 25 °C captures the central tendency. Higher outcomes receive lower weight because models show little risk of significant cooling before resolution. No major forecast shifts have occurred in the past 24–48 hours; the next official guidance from agencies such as AEMET or updated model runs will provide the primary near-term catalyst for any probability adjustments.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercato aperto: Sep 3, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$188Data di fine
5 set 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 3, 2026, 12:30 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader sentiment for Madrid’s lowest temperature on September 5, 2026, centers on an elevated overnight minimum driven by a persistent warm, dry air mass under high pressure.**
Current model consensus from sources including WeatherBug, Globalmeteo, Yr.no, and ilMeteo.it shows daytime highs of 34–36 °C and overnight lows of 22–27 °C, with early-morning readings frequently near 23–25 °C. Light northeast to variable winds, partly cloudy skies, and low humidity limit radiative cooling, while Madrid’s urban heat island further supports milder minima. Historical September averages place the typical low near 17 °C, but the ongoing warm anomaly—consistent with recent September patterns—has shifted expectations upward.
The 58.5 % market-implied probability on 24 °C or below aligns with the lower end of forecast ranges, while the 28 % on exactly 25 °C captures the central tendency. Higher outcomes receive lower weight because models show little risk of significant cooling before resolution. No major forecast shifts have occurred in the past 24–48 hours; the next official guidance from agencies such as AEMET or updated model runs will provide the primary near-term catalyst for any probability adjustments.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$188Data di fine
5 set 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 3, 2026, 12:30 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...**Trader sentiment for Madrid’s lowest temperature on September 5, 2026, centers on an elevated overnight minimum driven by a persistent warm, dry air mass under high pressure.** Current model consensus from sources including WeatherBug, Globalmeteo, Yr.no, and ilMeteo.it shows daytime highs of 34–36 °C and overnight lows of 22–27 °C, with early-morning readings frequently near 23–25 °C. Light northeast to variable winds, partly cloudy skies, and low humidity limit radiative cooling, while Madrid’s urban heat island further supports milder minima. Historical September averages place the typical low near 17 °C, but the ongoing warm anomaly—consistent with recent September patterns—has shifted expectations upward. The 58.5 % market-implied probability on 24 °C or below aligns with the lower end of forecast ranges, while the 28 % on exactly 25 °C captures the central tendency. Higher outcomes receive lower weight because models show little risk of significant cooling before resolution. No major forecast shifts have occurred in the past 24–48 hours; the next official guidance from agencies such as AEMET or updated model runs will provide the primary near-term catalyst for any probability adjustments.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Domande frequenti